The Detroit Lions arrive in Munich while riding a four-game winning streak, entering as 3-point favorites against a battered New England Patriots squad at Allianz Arena in Week 10.
My top Patriots vs. Lions predictions and NFL picks look to exploit a massive mismatch in turnover differential and offensive health. I'm backing Dan Campbell’s surging Lions to capitalize on a turnover-prone Drake Maye and cover against a New England roster missing key skill players.
Here's my breakdown and expert NFL best bets ahead of Sunday's 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
TOP Pick
Patriots vs Lions prediction Today: Lions moneyline
International games are tough enough to navigate from a logistics standpoint. On top of travel, the New England Patriots have to figure out just who will be playing on Sunday.
The injury list is long for the Patriots, with glaring gaps in the pass protection. The offensive line was already missing key blockers and currently has three starters listed as questionable.
Quarterback Drake Maye, who was sacked four times in the loss to Green Bay, had words of encouragement for his protectors ahead of this matchup with the Detroit Lions. And they'll need them.
The Lions rank No. 3 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, own the seventh-highest pressure rate, and have collected 27 sacks — the third most in the NFL. Detroit is generating this chaos without the normal reliance on the blitz (15th in blitz rate), getting tremendous interior pressure with the defensive line.
To make matters worse, New England looks like it will be down its top two running backs. That leaves this offense one-dimensional, and the lack of a ground game allows Detroit to dial up the pass pressure on Maye.
International games can be tricky, so I'm keeping it simple with the Lions moneyline and would take this as high as 62% on Sunday morning.
COVERS INTEL: Drake Maye has taken 20 sacks and felt pressure at the ninth-highest rate among QBs. He's made the fifth most "pressure throws," which have led to 11 interceptions and the third most "danger plays" this season.
Patriots vs Lions combo
The Patriots have already been beaten by NFC North teams this year, and the matchup with Detroit isn't easy. New England is lacking bodies all over the offense, and it could be walking into a shootout, considering how bad the Pats' defense has been.
Amon-Ra St. Brown just watched the rival Packers pick apart this Patriots secondary, and his projections sit as high as 96 yards for a "homecoming" of sorts for the Lions WR1.
Hunter Henry will be Drake Maye's top target in the red zone, with New England's running backs running thin and Detroit getting torched by TEs this season.
Patriots vs Lions combo
- Lions moneyline
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 80+ receiving yards
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown
Patriots vs Lions touchdown scorer: Hunter Henry
Although Henry is battling through a foot injury, he is expected to play on Sunday.
The Lions' pass defense has been an issue all season, with injuries in the secondary. Detroit has had a rough time with rival tight ends too, allowing the most yardage and 11 touchdowns to the position.
Without its top two running backs, New England's red zone work trickles down to the TE. Henry has drawn five red-zone targets for four catches and two touchdowns this season.
His TD forecasts for Week 10 sit around 30%.
For more Week 10 touchdown angles, including other Patriots and Lions options, see our NFL anytime touchdown picks for Week 10.
Patriots vs Lions player prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown 80+ receiving yards
The Lions’ star receiver has roots in Germany, with his mother originally from Leverkusen. That makes this trip to Munich a special event for St. Brown, giving him extra incentive to show out on Sunday.
The Patriots will roll out the red carpet for St. Brown, given how their secondary performed in a blowout loss to Green Bay last week. New England hemorrhaged huge gains and three TDs through the air.
They enter Week 10 allowing the second most “explosive” passes of 20+ yards and are also missing defenders in the secondary, with DB Carlton Davis III out and DB Charles Woods and safety Kevin Byard questionable.
For his career, St. Brown is one of the most dangerous WRs versus man coverage and will face plenty of it from a Patriots secondary running man schemes at the second highest rate.
St. Brown’s projections for Week 10 sit between 78 and 96 receiving yards, with my forecast coming out to 84.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Patriots vs. Lions market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on tonight’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Commanders vs. Giants prediction.
- Top picks: 13-11, +0.19 units
- Combos: 0-24, -21.0 units
Patriots vs Lions odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots +2.5 | Lions -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (53%) | Under 50.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 42% | Lions 58%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Patriots vs Lions weather
Allianz Arena is partially covered, but the playing surface remains exposed to the elements.
Sunday's forecast shouldn't have any impact on the action, with temperatures in the low 50s and winds topping out at 9 mph gusts.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Lions trend to know
Dan Campbell's Lions are 15-12-1 SU and 17-10-1 ATS versus AFC foes since he took over as head coach in 2021. Find more NFL trends for Patriots vs. Lions.
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How to watch Patriots vs Lions
| Location | Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
Patriots vs Lions latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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