Congratulations, if you're reading this article on the Dumpster Bowl, you, sir, are a degenerate.
The Indianapolis Colts are 3.5-point favorites at Kalshi, but my Dolphins vs. Colts prediction focuses on the total. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium, with the game airing on CBS.
For more analysis on Sunday, Nov. 15, our NFL picks have you covered.
TOP Pick
Dolphins vs Colts prediction: Under 38.5
This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring football game, and I'm perfectly fine investing in the Under.
The Miami Dolphins aren't terrible defensively, either — ranking 13th in total defense coming into this one.
Neither offense inspires much confidence, and when we're dealing with a total this low, the margin for error is razor-thin.
Sustaining drives, converting third downs, and finishing in the red zone will be critical, and I'm not convinced either team can consistently check those boxes.
COVERS INTEL: The Dolphins have scored a touchdown on just 47% of their red-zone trips this season and enter Week 10 ranked 23rd in EPA per play. This unit won't do enough to eclipse the number.
Dolphins vs Colts combo
There's a clear path for both running backs to see significant volume in this matchup. Seth McGowan has slowly been eating into Jonathan Taylor's workload, clearing this number in two of his last three games.
Meanwhile, Ollie Gordon has become the bell cow in Miami with De'Von Achane out of the picture, and with the Colts coughing up 137 rushing yards per game, there's plenty of runway for Gordon to get his share. I'm feeling warm and cozy here.
We're not asking for anything crazy here. Just a slow, methodical football game.
Dolphins vs Colts combo
- Under 38.5 points
- Ollie Gordon Over 61.5 rushing yards
- Seth McGowan Over 33.5 rushing yards
Dolphins vs Colts touchdown scorer: Caleb Douglas
Caleb Douglas has the speed and big-play ability to turn one touch into six, giving Miami a legitimate home-run threat against Indianapolis. He's emerged as the Dolphins' WR1 and go-to option in the passing game, averaging seven targets over his last two contests.
With backup quarterback Kyle McCord under center, I'm expecting Douglas to be heavily involved early and often, giving him plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.
- Top picks: 53-46-1 +2.94 units
- Combos: 4-11, +5.54 units
Dolphins vs Colts odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Dolphins +3.5 (35%) | Colts -3.5 (65%)
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (46%) | Under 38.5 (55%)
- Moneyline: Dolphins 35% | Colts 65%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Dolphins vs Colts weather
Lucas Oil Stadium is a retractable roof stadium, so weather won't play a part in game conditions.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Dolphins vs Colts trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Colts.
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How to watch Dolphins vs Colts
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Dolphins vs Colts latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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