Ten weeks into the NFL season, the odds to win NFL MVP are mixing it up, but the top of the betting board is dominated by quarterbacks, with four of them setting themselves apart from the pack.
With the defending Super Bowl MVP continuing to do what he does, a future Hall of Famer reminding everyone he's not done yet, and a seven-time Pro Bowler torching every defense in sight, here are the current NFL MVP odds.
Who Will Win NFL MVP?
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 MVP and reigning Super Bowl MVP, has overtaken the lead on the 2020 NFL MVP odds board (+180), unseating Russell Wilson for the first time in two months. Mahomes has the Chiefs off to an 8-1 start, tossing for 2687 yards with 25 TDs and just a single interception.
Seattle Seahawks superstar Wilson has never received a single MVP vote, but that's likely to change as he's currently in second at +225. Seattle is truly letting Russ cook in 2020: Wilson is completing 70 percent of his passes with an NFL-leading 28 passing touchdowns in nine games as the Seahawks are 6-3 to start the season.
Also excelling is Green Bay Packers' signal-caller Aaron Rodgers (remember him?), with NFL MVP odds of +300. The Pack went 13-3 last season, but after they drafted QB Jordan Love in the first round this offseason, some started to question if Rodgers was nearing the end of his reign as one of the NFL's elite. The 36-year-old Rodgers, a future Hall-of-Famer, has responded by throwing for 2578 yards, 26 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Fourth in MVP odds (+700) is surging Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, while a three-way tie has emerged for fifth (+2,500) between familiar face Tom Brady, Bills QB Josh Allen, and Comeback Player of the Year candidate Ben Roethlisberger.
Twelve of the last 13 NFL MVPs have been quarterbacks, so it's little surprise that QBs dominate the top of the odds board. The first non-QB on this list is running back Dalvin Cook at +3,000.
No wide receiver has ever won MVP, while the last defensive player to take home the hardware was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. L.A. Rams DT Aaron Donald and Pittsburgh Steelers LB TJ Watt have the best odds among defensive players at +10,000, while no wide receivers are currently found on the odds board.
Here are the current odds to win the 2020 NFL MVP:
Odds to Win NFL MVP
| Player | Odds to win (as of November 17) |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +180 |
| Russell Wilson | +225 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +300 |
| Kyler Murray | +700 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | +2,500 |
| Tom Brady | +2,500 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +2,500 |
| Dalvin Cook | +3,000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +5,000 |
| Drew Brees | +6,000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +6,000 |
| Derrick Henry | +6,600 |
| Derek Carr | +7,000 |
| Aaron Donald | +10,000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +10,000 |
| TJ Watt | +10,000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +15,000 |
| Cam Newton | +20,000 |
| Jared Goff | +25,000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +25,000 |
| Matt Ryan | +25,000 |
| Philip Rivers | +25,000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +25,000 |
| Carson Wentz | +50,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
How to Bet Futures Odds
Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.
Change your strategy at different points in the season
While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.
If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom).
In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.
Look for value with underdogs
While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system.
Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.
Follow the narrative
When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.
For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose who ended up winning MVP was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.
Research historical trends
Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean.
The NBA MVP for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. While the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons.
Identifying those trends is a good way to seperate the true contenders from the pretenders.
Where Can I Bet on NFL Awards?
Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on NFL awards and odds generally begin to appear after free agency and the NFL Draft. Check out the NFL futures odds at the best sportsbooks available where you live.
