The five players who closed the regular season atop the NFL MVP odds board have been named as finalists, with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes sitting as an overwhelming favorite.
As we await the official announcement, here are the latest NFL odds to win the 2022-23 NFL MVP award.
(Editor's Note: This article has been updated to reflect the announcement of the finalists. The market is currently OTB, odds below are accurate as of January 4, and subject to change.)
Odds to win 2022-23 NFL MVP
|Patrick Mahomes||Kansas City Chiefs||QB||OTB|
|Joe Burrow||Cincinnati Bengals||QB||OTB|
|Josh Allen||Buffalo Bills||QB||OTB|
|Jalen Hurts||Philadelphia Eagles||QB||OTB|
|Justin Jefferson||Minnesota Vikings||WR||OTB|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of January 4, 2023.
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Favorites to win NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes (-750)
It seemed like the MVP was Patrick Mahomes' to lose, then he seemingly did just that following up a loss to the Bengals with a three-pick day against the Broncos.
While Mahomes and the Chiefs were again pushed by an inferior foe in Week 15, against the Texans, the former MVP regained favorite status as Hurts' season was thrown into a blender. At this point, it's difficult to imagine anything that could take Mahomes' second career MVP nod away in the final week.
Joe Burrow (+750)
Beating the Chiefs and Mahomes is impressive. Beating them three times is even more so. Beating them in three straight games in the space of a year? That's almost an impossibly amazing achievement but one Cincy has come to expect out of Joe Burrow.
Much like last season, Burrow is thriving behind newfound protection and has the Bengals playing like a dangerous out for anyone in the AFC, with seven wins on the bounce moving them to 11-4.
Josh Allen (+1,000)
Josh Allen and the Bills retained top billing as the league's best player and team throughout the offseason and the first two months of the season. However, after Buffalo tripped up against the Jets and then lost the game of the year to the Vikings, Allen fell out of the Top 3 completely.
Though Buffalo's gotten back on track, with six wins in a row, Allen is looking at too steep of a hill to climb in order to catch up with the candidacies of Mahomes and Burrow.
How to bet futures odds
Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.
Change your strategy at different points in the season
While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.
If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom).
In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.
Look for value with underdogs
While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system.
Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.
Follow the narrative
When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.
For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami, he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.
Research historical trends
Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean.
The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. While the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons.
Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.
NFL MVP winners by position
|Position||NFL MVP Awards|
The NFL MVP Award has been dominated by offensive players since its inception. Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) are the only defensive players to receive the honor since 1957.
NFL MVP winners by team
|Team||NFL MVP Awards|
|Green Bay Packers||10|
|San Francisco 49ers||5|
|Los Angeles Rams||4|
|Las Vegas Raiders||4|
|New England Patriots||3|
The rest of the league has a way to go before catching up with the Packers. Green Bay's 10 NFL MVP trophies are split among Paul Hornmung (1961), Jim Taylor (1962), Bart Starr (1966), Brett Favre (1995, 1996, 1997), and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021).
NFL MVP Odds FAQs
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (-500) is the betting favorite to win the 2022-23 NFL MVP.
Aaron Rodgers won his fourth MVP last season with pre-season odds of +900. He's on the board to win it once again at +1,000.
Running back Adrian Peterson won the 2012 NFL MVP.