Tom Brady opened at +2,200 to win the 2022-23 NFL MVP award, ballooned to +4,500 after he announced his retirement, and has now settled at +800 (for now) after changing his mind.
Still, even with Brady back in the fold, Aaron Rodgers returning to the Green Bay Packers, and Russell Wilson in Denver, the NFL MVP odds action wasn't done. The most recent offseason blockbuster, which saw A.J. Brown get traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, saw Jalen Hurts' odds jump all the way up to +1,800.
Here are the latest odds to win the 2022-23 NFL MVP award.
Odds to win 2022-23 NFL MVP
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of June 14, 2022.
Favorites to win NFL MVP
Josh Allen (+700)
The Bills often looked like world-beaters with Allen at the helm in 2021, but they also dropped games to the Steelers and Jaguars en route to an 11-6 record. Allen threw 15 interceptions — only Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence had more passes picked off — but still came through in the clutch when it mattered most.
Allen showed his mettle in two postseason games and even though the Bills were ousted by Mahomes and the Chiefs, Allen threw nine touchdowns on 637 yards passing with zero picks in the postseason.
Tom Brady (+800)
Brady came out of retirement and immediately saw his MVP odds get exponentially slashed. The fact that he was still on the board at +4,500 prior to his announcement shows there was at least a smidge of doubt about whether or not it would stick. As soon as it was known he'd be playing again, those odds were doomed, and the market adjusted accordingly on the day following the announcement.
The ageless wonder threw for a career-high 5,316 passing yards (albeit, the season had one more game) and led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns. Brady's already won the award three times (2007, 2010, 2017) and could join an exclusive club of four-time winners (Rodgers, Peyton Manning).
Patrick Mahomes (+900)
Mahomes had something of a rocky season by his standards, but he still threw 37 touchdowns on 4,839 yards passing. However, he did throw a career-high 13 interceptions over his 17 games. After opening the season with a 3-4 record, it looked like the Chiefs were in danger of missing the postseason, but then a flip switched. The Chiefs went 9-1 after Week 7 and Mahomes was in fine form. He threw 19 touchdowns on 2,746 yards over his final 10 games. Most importantly, he wasn't making mistakes as he accounted for just four of his 13 picks over that stretch.
Losing Tyreek Hill, however, is a massive loss to Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, and could impact the huge numbers Mahomes has typically posted as a perennial MVP contender.
Aaron Rodgers (+1,000)
All the drama surrounding Rodgers is over as the veteran quarterback agreed to an extremely lucrative four-year deal to return to Green Bay in the offseason. He's one of the favorites to win the regular-season MVP award once more. If successful, Rodgers would match Peyton Manning as the only two players to ever earn the honors in five different seasons.
Age has not been a factor for the 38-year-old Rodgers either. He overcame a toe injury to throw 37 touchdowns and just four interceptions on 4,115 yards passing over 16 games, leading the Packers to a 13-3 record — Green Bay lost the lone game he missed.
It will be interesting to see how the four-time MVP performs this upcoming season with the loss of star receiver Davante Adams to the Raiders.
Justin Herbert (+1,000)
The Chargers' ascending star joins the Green Bay legend at +1,000, as L.A. makes moves to surround its young star while he's still on his rookie contract. Herbert continued to flash elite physical tools in 2021, topped off with a masterful showing in Week 18 against the Raiders.
It's only a matter of time until the former Oregon Duck is there with the league's best on a week-in, week-out basis, and when team success follows he'll no doubt be an MVP contender.
How to bet futures odds
Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.
Change your strategy at different points in the season
While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.
If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom).
In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.
Look for value with underdogs
While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system.
Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.
Follow the narrative
When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.
For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami, he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.
Research historical trends
Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean.
The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. While the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons.
Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.
NFL MVP Odds FAQs
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+700) is the early betting favorite to win the 2022-23 NFL MVP.
Aaron Rodgers won his fourth MVP last season with pre-season odds of +900.
After announcing he wouldn't be retiring after all, Brady's odds surged from +4,500 to +1,000.
Running back Adrian Peterson won the 2012 NFL MVP. A quarterback has won the award in nine consecutive seasons.