2023-24 NFL MVP Odds: Tagovailoa Takes Over Top Spot

The benefit of having a franchise quarterback can not be understated in today's NFL. It's the reason why GMs so often make major reaches for a signal caller in the draft, and why some are handed their walking papers when those QBs fail to live up to their draft position.

It's also the reason why top quarterbacks are paid the way they are today, as it's become nearly impossible to reach the Super Bowl without a top-notch passer (who, ideally, can also demonstrate some mobility). 

Not surprisingly, NFL odds to win the 2023-24 MVP Award are dominated by quarterbacks, which comprise the entire Top 10. Check out the latest betting odds to win NFL MVP below.

Odds to win 2023-24 NFL MVP

Player
Tua Tagovailoa	+380	+350	+300	+350
Patrick Mahomes	+550	+500	+550	+550
Jalen Hurts	+750	+800	+750	+800
Josh Allen	+850	+700	+900	+750
Lamar Jackson	+1,500	+1,400	+1,200	+1,400
Justin Herbert	+1,600	+1,300	+1,600	+1,400
Trevor Lawrence	+2,000	+2,000	+2,500	+2,000
Joe Burrow	+2,000	+2,000	+2,200	+2,000
Brock Purdy	+2,000	+2,000	+1,800	+2,000
Dak Prescott	+3,500	+2,500	+3,000	+2,500

Odds as of September 26, 2023.

Favorites to win NFL MVP 

Tua Tagovailoa (+300 to +380)

Well, that escalated quickly.

Despite barely cracking the Top 10 in the NFL MVP betting going into Week 1, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has seen his odds slashed nearly in half every week, and is now the clear-cut favorite at practically every major sportsbook to win NFL MVP going into Week 4.

After throwing for 466 yards on 28 of 45 passing with three touchdowns vs. the Chargers in Week 1, Tagovailoa backed it up by going 21-for-30 with 249 yards and a score in a prime time victory over the Patriots, both on the road. Then his Dolphins destroyed the Broncos, 70-20, with Tua tossing 309 yards and four scores.

Can he continue his success this week vs. the Buffalo Bills?

Patrick Mahomes (+500 to +550)

Patrick Mahomes has already compiled a Hall of Fame-worthy résumé with two MVPs, two Super Bowl wins, and two Super Bowl MVPs under his belt. After ending 2022-23 with all three of those honors to his credit, the Chiefs' signal caller was a deserving preseason favorite to take MVP No. 3 in 2023.

After a bumpy first two weeks, Mahomes looked like his old self in a 41-10 pasting of the Bears last Sunday, as he threw for 272 yards on 24 of 33 passing with three scores.

Jalen Hurts (+750 to +800)

A betting favorite for a large chunk of last season before suffering an injury, Jalen Hurts is once again a threat to win his first NFL MVP this season. The Eagles quarterback finished second in the voting last year after going 14-1 as a starter with 3,701 passing yards, 760 rushing yards, and 35 all-purpose touchdowns.

Hurts had his best performance of the season in Week 3 vs. the Buccaneers, going for 277 yards and two scores; one with his arm and one with his legs. However, he did throw two interceptions.

Josh Allen (+750 to +900)

Josh Allen was the betting favorite from around this time last year through the first month of the '22 season, before he and the Bills began to face some adversity. Buffalo's season, and Allen's MVP campaign, was derailed by an elbow injury and inconsistent play. 

It looked like deja vu all over again to start the season, as the Bills suffered through a sloppy performance by Allen on Monday Night Football with the Jets defense forcing four turnovers out of him. However, Allen has bounced back by tossing four touchdowns with 492 yards through the air vs. the Raiders and Commanders over the last two weeks.

How to bet futures odds

Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.

If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom). 

In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board, as betting big underdogs is like giving your money away.

Look for value with underdogs

While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. 

Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off underperforming seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky, you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard, are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami, he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999, it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. 

The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. The NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 13 of the last 14 seasons. 

Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.

NFL MVP winners by position

The NFL MVP Award has been dominated by offensive players since its inception. Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) are the only defensive players to receive the honor since 1957.

NFL MVP winners by team

The rest of the league has a way to go before catching up with the Packers. Green Bay's 10 NFL MVP trophies are split among Paul Hornung (1961), Jim Taylor (1962), Bart Starr (1966), Brett Favre (1995, 1996, 1997), and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021).

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