2021 NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes the early favorite

Feb 27, 2021 |
By: Covers Staff
2021 NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes the early favorite
Despite a tough loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the early favorite (+500) to win the 2021 NFL MVP.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Despite a tough loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the early favorite (+500) to win the 2021 NFL MVP.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The 2020 NFL season just came to an end with the all-too-familiar sight of Tom Brady hoisting the Lombardi Trophy above his head. However, with the end of one season comes the early start of another. With the page turned to 2021, NFL MVP odds have been released for the upcoming season. 

So, who will win NFL MVP next season? Let's take a look at current NFL MVP odds to get an idea of the favorites, long shots and everything in between. Here are the early odds to win NFL MVP in the 2021 season.    

Who Will Win NFL MVP?

A Super Bowl loss that saw Patrick Mahomes forced to operate as a one-man army did little to dissuade oddsmakers ahead of 2021. The Chiefs' signal-caller is the early favorite to win the second MVP of his career, as he opens the season at +500 after finishing third in the MVP race in 2020. Kansas City will see the majority of their offense return in '21, as well as the offensive coaching staff, setting Mahomes up for an MVP run.

Despite eventually running away with the 2020 MVP award, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers finds himself second on the odds board to begin 2021 (+800). After Green Bay drafted his potential successor, Jordan Love, in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Rodgers put together one of the finest seasons of his Hall of Fame career. It will be difficult for Rodgers to replicate his 2020 season at age-38, but if last season taught us anything, it's to not bet against the three-time MVP. 

Behind Mahomes and Rodgers is swashbuckling Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who finished as the runner-up in 2020 (+1,300). The arrival of All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs and a jump in accuracy at all three levels of the field last season saw Allen make the leap from "calamitous Cam Newton" to a near replica of Newton's MVP-level play during the middle part of last decade. If his steady growth is any indication, Allen will be in the MVP conversation for years to come.

Just behind Allen is the hyper-efficient Russell Wilson (+1,400). Wilson cooked out of the gates in 2020 and looked primed not only to earn that elusive first MVP vote but to win the whole damn thing. However, Wilson played some of the worst football of his career over the last two months of the season and will be starting fresh with a new offensive coordinator in 2021.

Here are the current odds to win the 2021 NFL MVP:

Odds to win NFL MVP

Player Odds to win (as of February 9)
Patrick Mahomes +500
Aaron Rodgers +800
Josh Allen +1,300
Russell Wilson +1,400
Deshaun Watson +1,500
Dak Prescott  +1,500
Matthew Stafford +1,600
Tom Brady +1,600
Lamar Jackson +1,600
Kyler Murray +1,600
Justin Herbert +2,200
Ryan Tannehill +2,500
Carson Wentz +3,000
Derrick Henry +3,300
Christian McCaffrey +3,300
Baker Mayfield +4,000
Jameis Winston +5,000
Joe Burrow +5,000
Kirk Cousins +5,000
Tua Tagovailoa +6,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

How to bet futures odds

Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.

If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom). 

In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.

Look for value with underdogs

While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. 

Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.  

 

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.  

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. 

The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. While the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons. 

Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.

Where can I bet on NFL awards?

Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on NFL awards and odds generally begin to appear after free agency and the NFL Draft. Check out the NFL futures odds at the best sportsbooks available where you live. 

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