The NFL MVP odds board saw a shakeup following Week 8, with Josh Allen eclipsing Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes to become the new favorite.
Despite throwing his first interception of the season, Allen threw a pair of touchdown passes to beat the Seahawks, while Lamar & Co. stumbled against Cleveland.
Patrick Mahomes rounds out in the Top 3 in the NFL odds.
2024-25 NFL MVP odds
Player | |||
---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen | +300 | +300 | +300 |
Lamar Jackson | +300 | +350 | +340 |
Patrick Mahomes | +600 | +500 | +500 |
Jared Goff | +800 | +700 | +650 |
Jalen Hurts | +1,500 | +1,400 | +2,000 |
Jayden Daniels | +1,600 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
Kyler Murray | +1,800 | +3,500 | +3,000 |
C.J. Stroud | +1,800 | +1,400 | +1,400 |
Derrick Henry | +2,000 | +6,600 | +5,500 |
Sam Darnold | +2,000 | +3,500 | +3,000 |
Odds as of 10-29.
NFL MVP favorites
Josh Allen (+300)
Josh Allen continues to shine for the Buffalo Bills, throwing for 283 yards in another win for Buffalo. Allen continues to be the field general for this offense, and as long as Buffalo keeps winning, Allen will stay on top.
Lamar Jackson (+300 to +350)
Say what you want about voter fatigue, but Lamar Jackson put on an MVP-worthy performance in Tampa Bay last week to add to his jaw-dropping MNF resume.
Lamar & Co. stumbled in Week 8 against Cleveland, dropping the QB behind Allen. He'll look to bounce back in Week 9.
Patrick Mahomes (+500 to +600)
Patrick Mahomes has his team at 7-0, and that may be the only thing keeping him in the Top 3. He's thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes, and he isn't exactly racking up the passing yards.
As the saying goes, winning cures all.
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Notable NFL MVP betting splits
- Through seven weeks, Jared Goff holds 9.1% of MVP tickets, while Josh Allen has 11.5% of handle at BetMGM.
- Jackson has seen his odds go from +900 to as low as +250 at BetMGM.
- Jared Goff is considered the highest liability at BetMGM.
How to bet futures odds
Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.
Change your strategy at different points in the season
While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.
If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom).
In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board, as betting big underdogs is like giving your money away.
Covers NFL betting tools
Look for value with underdogs
While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system.
Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off underperforming seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky, you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.
Popular NFL futures markets
Follow the narrative
When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard, are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.
For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami, he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999, it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.
Research historical trends
Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean.
The NBA MVP award, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. The NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 14 of the last 15 seasons.
Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.
2024 NFL MVP opening odds
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Patrick Mahomes | +600 |
Josh Allen | +650 |
Joe Burrow | +800 |
Lamar Jackson | +900 |
Jordan Love | +1,200 |
Brock Purdy | +1,200 |
Justin Herbert | +1,200 |
C.J. Stroud | +1,400 |
Jalen Hurts | +1,500 |
Dak Prescott | +1,500 |
Opening odds for the 2024 NFL MVP award were released immediately after Super Bowl LVIII on February 12, 2024. Surprise, surprise, all 10 spots were occupied by quarterbacks.
NFL MVP winners by position
Position | NFL MVP Awards |
---|---|
Quarterback | 47 |
Running back | 13 |
Fullback | 4 |
Halfback | 1 |
Kicker | 1 |
Defensive tackle | 1 |
Linebacker | 1 |
Offensive players have dominated the NFL MVP Award since its inception. Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) are the only defensive players to receive the honor since 1957.
NFL MVP winners by team
Team | NFL MVP Awards |
---|---|
Green Bay Packers | 10 |
Indianapolis Colts | 8 |
San Francisco 49ers | 5 |
Cleveland Browns | 4 |
Los Angeles Rams | 4 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 4 |
New England Patriots | 3 |
Washington Commanders | 3 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 3 |
The rest of the league has a way to go before catching up with the Packers. Green Bay's 10 NFL MVP trophies are split among Paul Hornung (1961), Jim Taylor (1962), Bart Starr (1966), Brett Favre (1995, 1996, 1997), and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021).
Former NFL MVP winners
Player | Year | Opening Odds |
---|---|---|
Lamar Jackson | 2023 | +1,600 |
Patrick Mahomes | 2022 | +700 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2021 | +800 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2020 | +3,000 |
Lamar Jackson | 2019 | +4,000 |
Patrick Mahomes | 2018 | +3,525 |
Tom Brady | 2017 | +385 |
Matt Ryan | 2016 | +7,500 |
Cam Newton | 2015 | +5,200 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2014 | +600 |
Listed above are the last 10 winners of the NFL MVP award, with Aaron Rodgers claiming three of them while on the Green Bay Packers.
NFL MVP Odds FAQs
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite to win the 2024-25 NFL MVP award.
Lamar Jackson won the NFL MVP award in 2023 after leading the Baltimore Ravens to a stellar 13-4 record.
Running back Adrian Peterson won the NFL MVP award in 2012 as a member of the Minnesota Vikings.