2021 NFL MVP Odds: Brady, Allen Maintain Top Spots

Tom Brady maintains his lead at the of the MVP odds board, but has a number of star quarterbacks on his heels. See who's on the move ahead of Week 13 in our NFL MVP odds update.

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2021 1:46 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The NFL MVP odds race is stacked with the game's biggest star quarterbacks littering the top of the board.

Nine different quarterbacks have 16/1 odds or better heading into Week 13. It's a tight race and there's still a ton of football to play. 

Let's take a look at the full board and see who has the best odds to win NFL MVP.

Odds to win NFL MVP

Live odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook, are up-to-date within a five-minute delay.

Favorites to win NFL MVP

In the No. 1 spot, after another Josh Allen-Buffalo Bills stumble in Week 11 is Tom Brady (+300), who has been in great form this season. He’s second in the NFL in passing yards (3,403) and leads the NFL with 30 passing touchdowns. Brady's odds had slipped a little during the Bucs' recent two-game losing streak but have bounced back well with their MNF victory against the Giants in Week 11 and this week's comeback win against the Colts. 

Remaining in second place after the aforementioned stumble is Josh Allen (+420). Allen and Co. got stomped 41-15 on their own field by the Colts in Week 11 but bounced back on Thanksgiving Day with a 31-6 romping of the New Orleans Saints, moving their record to 7-4. Allen was in an incredible spot to win MVP after the Bills' fast start to the season but has continued to drop, especially after the Jaguars loss in Week 9 and last week's loss to the Colts. 

However, he's still very much in the mix if he can rebound well to close the season. He's thrown for 3,071 yards on 66.8 percent, with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He's a player to watch closely in the home stretch of the season. 

Moving into third is Aaron Rodgers (+650), whose odds have steadily risen since the Week 1 dud against New Orleans. He's battling a toe injury but that hasn't seemed to impact his play too much as he's thrown for 692 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions in his last two outings. He's led the Packers to a 9-3 record, behind only the Cardinals in the NFC, and are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl

Rising each and every week and this week into the fourth spot is Patrick Mahomes (+750). He saw his odds drop to as low as 80/1 over a month ago but has re-entered the mix with the Cheifs having won five of six and back on top in the division. It may be too little, too late, but you can never count out a late-season push from Mahomes. 

Rounding out the Top 5 is Kyler Murray (+800), who has been great when on the field, but hasn't played since the Packers loss in Week 8 (October 28). Though he's hopeful to return this week against the Bears, the missed games could be tough to overcome.

Below this group of guys, are more lingering quarterbacks, including Dak Prescott (+1,000), Lamar Jackson (+1,400), Matthew Stafford (+1,600), and Justin Herbert (+1,600).

 

How to bet futures odds

Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.

If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom). 

In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.

Look for value with underdogs

While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. 

Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami, he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.  

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. 

The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. While the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons. 

Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.

Where can I bet on NFL awards?

Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on NFL awards and odds generally begin to appear after free agency and the NFL Draft. Check out the NFL futures odds at the best sportsbooks available where you live. 

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