The Detroit Lions bring momentum to Munich, where they try to extend their winning ways against the New England Patriots in Week 10.
Detroit has won four straight outings and is a short neutral-site favorite inside Allianz Arena, facing a banged-up New England squad coming off a blowout loss to another NFC North foe.
My Patriots vs. Lions prediction calculates the edges in this non-conference clash, giving you my best NFL picks in Germany on Nov. 15.
TOP Pick
Patriots vs Lions prediction: Lions moneyline
International games are tough enough to navigate from a logistics standpoint. On top of travel, the New England Patriots have to figure out just who will be playing on Sunday.
The injury list is long for the Patriots, with glaring gaps in the pass protection. The offensive line was already missing key blockers and currently has three starters listed as questionable.
Quarterback Drake Maye, who was sacked four times in the loss to Green Bay, had words of encouragement for his protectors ahead of this matchup with the Detroit Lions. And they’ll need them.
The Lions rank No. 3 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, own the seventh-highest pressure rate, and have collected 27 sacks — the third most in the NFL. Detroit is generating this chaos without the normal reliance on the blitz (15th in blitz rate), getting tremendous interior pressure with the defensive line.
To make matters worse, New England looks like it will be down its top two running backs. That leaves this offense one-dimensional, and the lack of a ground game allows Detroit to dial up the pass pressure on Maye.
International games can be tricky, so I’m keeping it simple with the Lions moneyline and would take this as high as 62% on Sunday morning.
COVERS INTEL: Drake Maye has taken 20 sacks and felt pressure at the ninth-highest rate among QBs. He’s made the fifth most “pressure throws,” which has led to 11 interceptions and the third most “danger plays” this season.
Patriots vs Lions combo
The Patriots have already been beaten by NFC North teams this year, and the matchup with Detroit isn’t easy. New England is lacking bodies all over the offense, and it could be walking into a shootout, considering how bad the Pats’ defense has been.
Amon-Ra St. Brown just watched the rival Packers pick apart this Patriots secondary, and his projections sit as high as 96 yards for a “homecoming” of sorts for the Lions WR1.
Hunter Henry will be Drake Maye’s top target in the red zone, with New England’s running backs running thin and Detroit getting torched by TEs this season.
Patriots vs Lions combo
- Lions moneyline
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 80+ receiving yards
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown
Patriots vs Lions touchdown scorer: Hunter Henry
Although Henry is battling through a foot injury, he is expected to play on Sunday.
The Lions’ pass defense has been an issue all season, with injuries in the secondary. Detroit has had a rough time with rival tight ends too, allowing the most yardage and 11 touchdowns to the position.
Without its top two running backs, New England’s red zone work trickles down to the TE. Henry has drawn five red-zone targets for four catches and two touchdowns this season.
His TD forecasts for Week 10 sit around 30%.
- Top picks: 13-11, +0.19 units
- Combos: 0-24, -21.0 units
Patriots vs Lions odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots +2.5 | Lions -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (53%) | Under 50.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 42% | Lions 58%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Patriots vs Lions weather
Allianz Arena is partially covered, but the playing surface remains exposed to the elements.
Sunday’s forecast shouldn't have any impact on the action, with temperatures in the low 50s and winds topping out at 9 mph gusts.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Lions trend to know
Dan Campbell’s Lions are 15-12-1 SU and 17-10-1 ATS versus AFC foes since he took over as head coach in 2021. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Lions.
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How to watch Patriots vs Lions
| Location | Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
Patriots vs Lions latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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