Four experts, four scorers, and one ticket to sweat. Our NFL touchdown combo pairs Tank Dell and Nico Collins with Justin Jefferson and Audric Estime as our analysts hunt for value in the end-zone markets.
Josh Inglis, Jon Metler, Dustin Saracini and Joe Osborne break down the matchups and prices behind their touchdown-focused NFL picks.
Our best NFL touchdown combo
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Josh Inglis' TD pick: Tank Dell
Tank Dell is coming off a team-high nine targets on just a 55% route share last week, and Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is suggesting we should see more of him going forward.
This offense is healthy and dangerous against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 23+ points in three straight weeks to struggling offenses in Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. I got Dell at 4.55x and would confidently play him down to 4x.
Jon Metler's TD pick: Justin Jefferson
I price Justin Jefferson at 44% to score a touchdown at Lambeau Field on Sunday, so I’m absolutely grabbing the 36% price on Kalshi. Did someone forget to tell the market that Kirk Cousins is back in a Minnesota Vikings uniform?
This price feels like we’re still projecting Kyler Murray or Carson Wentz under center. No chemistry or lineup adjustment is needed here.
Cousins and Jefferson are already familiar with each other, and Jefferson enjoyed the best seasons of his career with Cousins throwing him the football.
Dustin Saracini's TD pick: Nico Collins
Nico Collins has already found the end zone four times in six games, and with C.J. Stroud fresh off a five-touchdown Mona Lisa, Houston’s passing attack has found its stride.
Despite missing time, Collins still ranks 10th in the NFL with 10 red-zone targets, showing just how important he is to Houston’s offense inside the 20.
Expect him to get volume near the end zone.
Joe Osborne's TD pick: Audric Estime
The New Orleans Saints wasted no time making Audric Estime a big part of their offense in his team debut last week, giving him 15 carries, nine more than Alvin Kamara.
He turned those opportunities into 72 yards and a touchdown, and I expect New Orleans to go right back to him against Carolina. The Panthers rank 26th in yards allowed per carry and are tied for the league lead with 11 rushing touchdowns surrendered to running backs.
This is an excellent matchup for Estime to find the end zone again.
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