Week 9 was like “The Purge” for point spread pups, with favorites winning all but one game and covering to the tune of 11-4 ATS.
That’s why walking away from “Chalk-Mageddon” with a 2-1 ATS record for my NFL underdog picks feels like a bigger victory than it was.
The last time dogs took such a drubbing was Week 8 of the 2025 campaign, in which pups finished 2-11 ATS. That topped the previous low of 2-10-1 ATS from underdogs in Week 3 of the 1998 season.
The weeks following those one-sided results did return some profits for pups, with underdogs finishing 9-5 ATS and 6-4-2 ATS, respectively.
While last week’s "against the spread" swings have zero impact on how my NFL Week 10 predictions trickle out, it’s comforting to know the dogs can bark back after a bad week.
Here are my top NFL picks getting the points in Week 10.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 15-12 ATS
NFL Week 10 underdog picks
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Browns +4.5 vs. Texans
Huntington Bank Field is a sight for sore eyes in Week 10. The Cleveland Browns play their first home game in almost a month on Sunday after three straight road trips.
While the Browns spin plates at quarterback, the Cleveland defense continues to keep it all together. That’s especially true when it comes to bottling up rival passing attacks.
The Browns are an elite pass defense, according to the holy trinity of advanced analytics. They’re No. 9 in EPA allowed per dropback and Pass Defense DVOA, while allowing the sixth-lowest success rate per passing play to opponents.
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud takes a crack at Cleveland’s air defenses in Week 10. He’s having a massive year so far, but his stats have been puffed up by piss-poor pass defenses and a cozy calendar.
Stroud’s burned the likes of Dallas, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and the L.A. Chargers — all of which sit near the bottom third of the NFL in pass defense metrics — and has played in only one true outdoor game (faced Jacksonville in partly covered Wembley Stadium).
Stroud is an indoor cat. He thrives inside the clean tracks of domed/covered venues but sees his production slip in open-air settings. His career passer rating drops to 87.5 outside vs. 98.8 in controlled climates, with his yards per attempt shrinking from 7.98 indoors to 6.68 outdoors.
The extended forecast for the "Factory of Sadness" shows a chance of rain and temperatures in the low 40s. And that’s on top of facing a shutdown secondary and a pass rush collecting the fifth-most sacks and 11th-most QB hits, despite blitzing at one of the lowest rates in the league.
Panthers +2.5 at Saints
The Carolina Panthers can’t dwell on what could have been vs. Denver last weekend and instead need to focus on snapping a three-game slide in Week 10.
The Panthers’ recent path has been loaded with tough teams, losing to Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Denver. In fact, Carolina’s first half of the schedule has featured some heavy hitters, and this trip to the Big East offers a change in gear.
The New Orleans Saints’ defense ranks 30th in DVOA, 30th in opponent success rate, and, more importantly, third-last in QB pressures.
That gives this Panthers’ pass protection a breather after allowing Bryce Young to feel the heat like he’s living in a toaster oven.
When given time, Young rates among the top quarterbacks at PFF, with 12 touchdowns to only one interception in a clean pocket.
The Saints’ results aren’t great, going just 1-5 ATS in the last six games, despite having a home-friendly slate in that span.
New Orleans has played only one true road game since Sept. 21 (with a Week 7 trip to France), so any positive in NOLA should be taken with a grain of salt.
Steelers +3.5 at Bengals
The high-flying Cincinnati Bengals have powered their four-game winning streak with a collective 143 points, leaving the rest of the AFC shitting bricks. Well, every other AFC team besides the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Black & Yellow remain the gatekeepers of the AFC North and own a four-game winning streak of their own. Yet, Pittsburgh and its Top 10 defense have faded off the radar thanks to a bye in Week 9, catching more than a field goal in this classic divisional rivalry.
The Steelers are rested and ready, presenting the stiffest opposition the Bengals have drawn since their streak started. Cincinnati has sliced through the melted-butter stop units of Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee and Atlanta — all of which rank 22nd or worse in EPA allowed per play since Week 5.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has settled into its defensive schemes under new coordinator Patrick Graham. The Steelers sat 23rd in opponent success rate (46%) in the opening four games and have trimmed that allowance to 38.7% during this winning run.
This is a different group than the one that allowed 27 points in a shootout win over the Bengals back in Week 3. Improved communication in coverage and better use of talent, especially on the defensive line, have the Steelers’ stop unit humming.
And while Mike Tomlin is no longer calling the shots in Pittsburgh, he will be in attendance as an analyst for Sunday Night Football. Hopefully, the Steelers can keep building on a 9-3 ATS record as underdogs against the Bengals, going back to Tomlin’s first season in the Steel City.
Week 10 underdog combo
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