NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks, TD Bets and a 21.28x Week 10 TD Parlay

It's a new week for touchdowns, and I'm staying away from the heavy-chalk card and looking more to tight ends and WR2s, as beating the market on big-name players is a tough task.

I'm still loving the Week 10 card, and there is a lot to be excited for heading into a full Sunday slate and NFL picks.

These are my favorite NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 10. 

Best Week 10 anytime touchdown scorer picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Game	Pick	Probability
NE vs DET	Eli Raridon	25%
BUF vs NYJ	Dawson Knox	17%
HOU vs CLE	Tank Dell	20%
JAX vs TEN	Nate Boerkircher	15%
CAR vs NO	Tommy Tremble	17%
MIN vs GB	Justin Jefferson	36%
MIA vs IND	Ashton Dulin	10%
KC vs ATL	Jahan Dotson	17%
SEA vs LV	Fernando Mendoza	13%
LAR vs ARI	Rams D/ST	17%
SF vs DAL	Jordan Watkins	23%
PIT vs CIN	Pat Freiermuth	23%
LAC vs BAL	Zay Flowers	35%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Patriots vs. Lions TD pick

Eli Raridon 25%

GRADE: 🟡

The Detroit Lions are a tight end funnel defensively, allowing a league-high 73.7 receiving yards and 1.03 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends, both of which rank last in the NFL.

Rookie Eli Raridon played more snaps than Hunter Henry last week and saw double the targets. His six red-zone targets also lead all New England pass catchers.

With some uncertainty in the Patriots' backfield, we could also see a slight uptick in pass rate against Detroit in Berlin on Sunday morning, and this matchup is as good as it gets for the tight end that I have a fair price of 3.7x.

Bills vs. Jets TD pick

Dawson Knox 17%

GRADE: 🟢

The Bills have used multiple-TE sets at a rate of better than 50% in each of the last two weeks, including 64% against the Vikings last week. That resulted in Dawson Knox playing 18 more snaps than Dalton Kincaid, who doesn't look like he'll be the volume tight end we saw during the first couple of games this season.

Buffalo continues to get creative in the red zone, keeping all of its longshot tight ends in play at their current prices.

The Jets are a Top 5 matchup for opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce scored and led the Chiefs in receiving last week, Brock Bowers went for 7/92/2 in Week 8, and Greg Dulcich led the Dolphins in receiving the week before.

Knox actually has more targets than Kincaid inside the 10-yard line, and I'd play him to 5.5x after getting 6x.

Texans vs. Browns TD pick

Tank Dell 20%

GRADE: 🟢

Tank Dell is coming off a team-high nine targets on just a 55% route share last week, and head coach DeMeco Ryans is suggesting we should see more of him going forward.

“Yeah, we’ll see more of Tank. And not because of who’s out. Tank, this is his second week now playing, so I think his reps will just increase with his workload. He’s put a lot of work in on the side, and it’s just a natural progression of an increase in his workload,” Ryan told the media after the offense put up 44 points against the Chargers.

This offense is healthy and dangerous against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 23+ points in three straight weeks to struggling offenses in Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans.

I got Dell at 4.55x and would confidently play him down to 4x.

Jaguars vs. Titans TD pick

Nate Boerkircher 15%

GRADE: 🟡

This was 6x this week, and it's something I'd play down to 5.7x in a lay-up matchup for what might be the deepest team in football right now.

The Jaguars should see a similar game script to their Week 9 matchup against the Ravens. Nate Boerkircher continues to carve out more snaps, playing 55% of them in a blowout win compared to 47% the week before. If the Titans can keep things competitive, the rookie tight end could see five targets as Brenton Strange's role as the TE1 continues to decline.

The Titans allow the second-most passing yards in football at 258.3 per game, and that number jumps to 325.7 over their last three games.

Panthers vs. Saints TD pick

Tommy Tremble 17%

GRADE: 🟡

I got this at 5.35x, but it's a good buy down to 5x and shouldn't be priced much longer than Darren Waller, who is currently at 4.3x. Tommy Tremble played more snaps than Waller last week, which is particularly important given that the Panthers were playing from behind early.

Tremble finished with six targets and four receptions, including a 10-yard touchdown. He also saw two red-zone targets in that loss and is tied with Waller for the team lead in red-zone opportunities.

The Saints remain one of five teams allowing 27+ points per game this season, and the indoor environment only adds to the appeal of the Panthers' passing game.

Vikings vs. Packers TD pick

Justin Jefferson 36%

GRADE: 🟡

Despite the quarterback upgrade with former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins coming back to Minnesota, Week 10 offers the best Justin Jefferson TD price of the season and one I'd play to 2.6x.

Jefferson has still hit his TD prop in half of his last four games despite poor quarterback play. If the Green Bay offense continues to put up points, Cousins could be forced to drop back 40 times, but that's not asking much from a QB who ranks fourth in the league in pass attempts this season.

Cousins is familiar with Kevin O'Connell's system from his time in Minnesota in 2022 and 2023, but let's not kid ourselves: the Vikings aren't going to roll with Max Brosmer or Carson Wentz this week. It's feed JJ time in Minnesota.

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Dolphins vs. Colts TD pick

Ashton Dulin 10%

GRADE: 🟢

This is available at 8.46x despite the trades that sent Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Josh Downs to Kansas City. That opens the door for Ashton Dulin to take on a larger role after scoring a TD last week.

He's listed as a starting WR on the current depth chart and should see an increase in snaps. Head coach Shane Steichen also mentioned that Dulin and the other receivers will absorb those routes, with plenty of opportunities to go around.

The Colts could be playing with great field position all game with Kyle McCord starting under center for the Dolphins and unlikely to move the ball consistently.

Any starting outside WR against Miami shouldn't be priced longer than 6x. This is great value created by the trades. At least we know Dulin cares about football in Indianapolis.

Chiefs vs. Falcons TD pick

Jahan Dotson 17%

GRADE:🟢 

This was available at 5.45x, and a clear WR2 in an indoor game with a likely trailing game script has me buying this down to 5x.

Jahan Dotson isn't a sexy name, but he runs 80% of the routes in this offense and still commands a 32% air-yard share, which is massive for a player priced at 17% to score a TD.

Indoors, Michael Penix is a different quarterback. His passer rating across eight outdoor games is 68.1, and he's 1-7 SU. Indoors, that rating climbs north of 100, with a 15/5 TD/INT ratio compared to 7/8 on the road.

If you're going to take a shot on a WR2, make sure it's indoors when Penix is getting him the ball.

Seahawks vs. Raiders TD pick

Fernando Mendoza 13%

GRADE:🟡 

Let's back the rookie, Fernando Mendoza, in his first start at 7.14x, with 6.5x being a more reasonable fair price. It's not an easy matchup, but at least the Seahawks have the league's second-worst red-zone TD rate at 75% this season.

The Raiders have also been awful running the ball, averaging a league-low 2.9 yards per carry, with just two red-zone rushing touchdowns from their running backs on 45 attempts. Even Cousins found the end zone last week at 16/1, which was his second rushing TD in as many weeks.

If he can do it, so can the betting favorite for OROY, who scored seven rushing touchdowns on 65 actual carries at Indiana last season. Young QBs can panic near the goal line, and I'll gladly take a couple of scrambles inside the 20.

Rams vs. Cardinals TD pick

LAR D/ST 17%

GRADE: 🟢

If there isn't a perfect spot to back a defense/special teams unit to score against a gutted offense, I don't know what is. This is just my second D/ST TD prop of the season, and the first one got us to the window.

The Cardinals are down to third-round rookie Carson Beck under center, and he'll be working with a depleted supporting cast. Arizona is missing Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., while Week 10 will feature Reggie Virgil, Simi Fehoko and Devin Duvernay as its receiving options. The injuries across Arizona's skill positions are severe.

The Los Angeles Rams aren't fully healthy on offense either, which puts even more pressure on the defense to step up and create some opportunities. With the offense missing its top two pass catchers, a defensive or special teams score could be especially valuable.

49ers vs. Cowboys TD pick

Jordan Watkins 23%

GRADE: 🟢

This was available at 4.17x and could be as short as 3x if he continues to operate as a top wide receiver, with Deebo Samuel working his way back from a hamstring injury and Mike Evans opening the week with a DNP. Head coach Kyle Shanahan talked up Jordan Watkins this week, praising his work ethic, how he's taken advantage of his opportunities, and his mental toughness.

Brock Purdy is taking notice, too. Watkins ran the most routes among 49ers receivers last week at an 87% rate and led the group in both targets and air yards against the Raiders. The matchup and indoor environment are also in his favor, with the Cowboys being one of just two defenses allowing more than 1.00 WR touchdown per game and 160+ receiving yards to the position.

This is worth getting in on early, as Watkins could maintain a significant role even if Samuel returns.

Steelers vs. Bengals TD pick

Pat Freiermuth 23%

GRADE: 🟡

I'm on Pat Freiermuth at 4.17x in one of the best tight end matchups in football and would play him down to 3.85x. The Steelers are coming off their bye and face a Cincinnati defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends in the NFL. The Bengals are also returning from Spain without the benefit of a bye.

The last time we saw this offense, Darnell Washington was getting more snaps, but Freiermuth still leads comfortably in target share and has double the air-yard share of his backup. Both players see plenty of red-zone work, but Freiermuth already has four red-zone touchdowns this season, tied for second among tight ends.

He's the Pittsburgh TE I'm backing at this price.

Chargers vs. Ravens TD pick

Zay Flowers 35%

GRADE: 🟡

Jacoby Brissett gets the Chargers for a second time this week, and after seeing how well he peppered Michael Wilson in Arizona, I'm hoping Zay Flowers gets similar treatment in Week 9.

The Ravens' No. 1 receiver has to feel much better about his chances of finding the end zone after managing just six yards on seven targets in one of the worst passing performances of the season.

Flowers is available at 2.7x to score on Monday night with a better arm under center against a team that hasn't covered a spread in 10 straight games. He's been as short as 2.15x this season, so I'll happily take the Brissett-Wilson treatment with a much better pass-catcher in Flowers.

Week 10 touchdown combo

I'm always looking for around 20x on my weekly TD combo, and this week I've got four of my favorite running backs who should see the majority of the red-zone work.

Woody Marks didn't find the end zone last week, but he gets a Cleveland defense that has struggled to tackle and continues to give up plenty of production to opposing running backs.

Audric Estime is the red-zone option for the Saints against a Carolina defense that allows the most touchdowns to opposing running backs.

Blake Corum was back in the end zone last week, finding paydirt on a red-zone opportunity. The injuries to the Rams' receivers could also create some additional opportunities for the running back group.

Finally, I'll take Bhayshul Tuten in what could be a one-sided game against the Cardinals. Arizona could be giving Jacksonville excellent field position all afternoon.

My weekly NFL TD props column is 30-87 this season for -16.5 units.

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