A 7-8 finish last week leaves plenty of room for improvement.
My NFL against the spread picks for Week 10 back the Colts against a new Dolphins starter and the Jaguars against a depleted Titans defense.
Here is the full card as part of my NFL picks.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 10
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Commanders  Giants |
-2.5 |
 Patriots Lions |
-2.5 |
 Vikings Packers |
-3.5 |
 Dolphins Colts |
-3.5 |
 Jaguars Titans |
-10.5 |
 Bills Jets |
-7.5 |
 Panthers Saints |
-2.5 |
 Chiefs Falcons |
+3.5 |
 Texans Browns |
+5.5 |
 Seahawks Raiders |
-6.5 |
 Rams Cardinals |
+9.5 |
 49ers Cowboys |
-4.5 |
 Steelers Bengals |
-3.5 |
 Chargers Ravens |
+4.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 10 NFL ATS picks
Commanders vs Giants: Giants (-2.5)
The Giants get another shot at the Commanders after their first meeting ended 27-27. Jayden Daniels ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns that day, so containing his scrambles is essential.
With J.J. McCarthy and Cam Skattebo in line to play, I like the Giants to finish the job at home.
Patriots vs Lions: Lions (-2.5)
The Patriots are allowing 10.6 yards per attempt against play action, a weakness Jared Goff is well equipped to attack. Their defense has struggled against stronger offenses, including last week's 45-point surrender to the Packers.
This game is in Munich, but I still trust the Lions to create enough scoring chances to cover this short number.
Vikings vs Packers: Packers (-3.5)
Jordan Love just threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against the Patriots. The Packers also allow only 5.1 yards per play, giving them a defensive foundation.
Kirk Cousins' arrival makes the Vikings more dangerous, but I'm backing the Packers' current form and home field to carry them past a field goal.
Dolphins vs Colts: Colts (-3.5)
Kyle McCord will make his first NFL start after the Dolphins placed Malik Willis on injured reserve. That removes a quarterback who had contributed 232 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
The Colts have their own roster problems, but I prefer their chances of sustaining drives at home against an offense changing quarterbacks this week.
Jaguars vs Titans: Jaguars (-10.5)
The Jaguars added Jessie Bates, Jordan Davis, and Davon Godchaux, while the Titans traded away Jeffery Simmons and Amani Hooker. The matchup already favors an offense averaging 6.1 yards per play against a defense allowing 6.0.
The Titans' bye helps, but I'm backing the Jaguars to exploit that gap and win by double digits again.
Bills vs Jets: Bills (-7.5)
The Bills lead the league in scoring and yards per play, with a rushing attack averaging 146.6 yards per game. The Jets allow 128 rushing yards per game, giving Josh Allen and James Cook a clear avenue to control possessions.
Coming off Monday night is a concern, but I expect the Bills to create enough separation.
Panthers vs Saints: Saints (-2.5)
Tyler Shough bounced back with 265 passing yards against the Browns, and Jordyn Tyson's return adds another receiving option alongside Chris Olave. The Panthers have lost three straight, allowing 43, 27, and 26 points.
I like the Saints' chances of moving the ball at home, with a field-goal victory enough to cover this short spread.
Chiefs vs Falcons: Falcons (+3.5)
Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a right elbow injury, making his throwing effectiveness the key variable. The Falcons' recent offensive struggles and loss of Jessie Bates leave little room for error.
Still, catching more than a field goal at home gives us some protection if the Chiefs' passing game operates below its usual standard Sunday.
Texans vs Browns: Browns (+5.5)
The Browns return home after three straight road games, with Deshaun Watson confirmed as the starter. His 33 sacks are a concern against the Texans' pass rush, but five of his starts have featured fourth-quarter go-ahead drives.
I'm taking the points with a team that has repeatedly found ways to stay competitive late in games.
Seahawks vs Raiders: Seahawks (-6.5)
The Raiders are turning to Fernando Mendoza for his first NFL start after trading Kirk Cousins. Their defense allows 6.3 yards per play and 5.0 yards per rush, offering the Seahawks a way to score without forcing throws.
Drew Lock's oblique injury adds uncertainty, but I trust the Seahawks' defense to help produce a touchdown margin.
Rams vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+9.5)
Carson Beck's first start and Michael Wilson's season-ending injury make the Cardinals difficult to trust. However, the Rams have major receiving concerns of their own, with Davante Adams on injured reserve and Puka Nacua's availability uncertain.
I'm taking the generous home spread against a favorite whose missing weapons could make pulling away difficult this week.
49ers vs Cowboys: 49ers (-4.5)
The 49ers added Keenan Allen to help their depleted receiving group, while DeForest Buckner strengthens the defensive front. The Cowboys can keep this competitive, but I prefer the 49ers' balance and ability to lean on Christian McCaffrey.
Allen provides another experienced option as the 49ers try to turn sustained possessions into a lead worth protecting.
Steelers vs Bengals: Bengals (-3.5)
The Steelers play zone on 84.3% of defensive dropbacks, while Joe Burrow leads the league with a 74.7% completion rate against zone. That's a specific matchup advantage for the Bengals' passing game.
The Steelers' rushing attack and rest advantage are concerns, but I expect Burrow to sustain enough scoring drives to cover at home Sunday.
Chargers vs Ravens: Chargers (+4.5)
Justin Herbert's finger imaging was negative, and Jim Harbaugh expects him to be available. The Ravens are without Lamar Jackson and expect Jacoby Brissett to start, limiting how much I trust their offense to separate.
Provided Herbert practices normally, I'm taking more than a field goal with the Chargers against another team navigating quarterback disruption.
Probabilities are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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