The NFL heads to Munich for Week 11, where the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions meet on Sunday. My Patriots vs Lions props focus on Drake Maye, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jameson Williams.
Read on for my three selections, and find more betting angles in our NFL picks for Sunday, Nov. 15.
Best Patriots vs Lions props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
| 54% | |
| 51% | |
| 54% |
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Prop pick #1: Drake Maye 1+ interceptions
Play up to 60%.
Drake Maye is having a disappointing campaign for the New England Patriots. He's tied with Justin Herbert for the league lead in interceptions, having been picked off 11 times in just nine games.
The quarterback threw three interceptions in Week 9 against the Green Bay Packers and has been picked off at least once in six of nine games.
The Detroit Lions' defense has recorded six interceptions this season, including one in each of its last four games. Detroit also ranks sixth in quarterback pressures (128) and third in sacks (27).
The Lions' aggressive pass rush should force Maye into hurried decisions in Munich, potentially leading to another costly interception.
Prop pick #2: Jahmyr Gibbs 90+ rushing yards
Play up to 56%.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been a workhorse for the Lions. He's averaged 105.9 rushing yards per game across eight appearances, with 4.8 yards per carry.
The former Alabama standout has rushed for 100+ yards in three of his last four games. While the Patriots are stingy against the run, Gibbs' workload is enormous. He's averaging 22.1 carries per game, and that number has been closer to 25 over the last month.
Gibbs has accounted for 77% of Detroit's rushing attempts this season, while the Lions' offensive line ranks fourth in adjusted line yards, eighth in run-block win rate, and fourth in PFF run-blocking grade.
Expect a big day from Gibbs.
Prop pick #3: Jameson Williams 4+ receptions
Play up to 58%.
Jameson Williams has been one of Jared Goff's most important wideouts, hauling in 28 catches in eight games. He's caught 4+ passes in three of his last five outings and is averaging 5.8 targets per game.
The matchup also favors Williams. New England is allowing 12.9 receptions per game to wide receivers, along with 175.2 receiving yards, the fourth-most in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury, and if he doesn't suit up, Williams could see an expanded role.
Even if St. Brown plays, I still like Williams to find enough opportunities against a vulnerable Patriots secondary.
- Prop picks: 2-3, 0.67 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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