We are now in double digits as Week 10 of the NFL season begins.
For my first touchdown scorer picks this Sunday, I'm backing three running backs with a history of scoring first in their games. Once you're done reading my plays, you can check out the rest of Sunday's NFL picks.
Best Week 10 first touchdown scorer picks
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Jonathan Taylor
Chuba Hubbard
Christian McCaffreyPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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First TD scorer prediction #1: Jonathan Taylor
The season’s longest-running trade story failed to materialize before the deadline, meaning that Jonathan Taylor will be suited up for the Indianapolis Colts against the Miami Dolphins.
It’s good news for first touchdown scorer bettors, with the Colts favored to win at home despite their offensive line being weaker than earlier in the season.
Taylor was in such demand because of his ability to put up big numbers, and he’s found the end zone eight times this season; he might have had a ninth last week, but he lost his cleat near the goal line, allowing Seth McGowan to score from two yards out.
The Colts love to rely on the ground game, especially early, and Taylor has opened the scoring in three of nine games this season, tied for the most in the NFL, while the Dolphins are averaging over a TD per game to the running back position.
- Matchup: Dolphins vs Colts
- Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind.
- TV: CBS
First TD scorer prediction #2: Chuba Hubbard
Any running back playing the New Orleans Saints is worth consideration to score a touchdown, as they’ve given up 12 TDs to opposing running backs in eight games, the second most in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Chuba Hubbard has had another strong season for the Carolina Panthers and leads the team with seven touchdowns.
He’s also tied with Taylor for the most opening touchdowns in the NFL, with three to his name, not bad for a team with a losing record.
Hubbard averages an impressive 4.6 yards per carry and nearly 17 carries per game, giving him a bell-cow workload. With the Saints' weakness against the run, he's a must-play selection Sunday.
- Matchup: Panthers vs Saints
- Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, La.
- TV: FOX
First TD scorer prediction #3: Christian McCaffrey
Wrapping up my first touchdown scorer picks is Christian McCaffrey, who, like Taylor and Hubbard, has also opened the scoring three times in the NFL this season, tied at the top.
He’s also tied for scoring in the most games, finding the end zone in seven of eight games this season, only failing to do so in the San Francisco 49ers season opener in Australia.
His role has diminished slightly this season, and he’s given up some work to Kaelon Black, but it’s McCaffrey who is still getting those high-value touches.
He’s now racked up 10 TDs and faces a Dallas Cowboys defense that has given up the second-most yards against the run, ranks 26th in EPA/rush, and has allowed the league’s second-highest number of touchdowns (12) to opposing RBs.
- Matchup: 49ers vs Cowboys
- Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 15 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: FOX
- TV: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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