NFL AI Predictions Week 10: ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Game

The Giants can make Jayden Daniels work for his escape routes. Rookie Arvell Reese had three of the Giants’ seven sacks against the Eagles. The Commanders need their tackles to keep the rush outside and give Daniels a lane to step up. His ability to turn a broken play into a first down is the difference between an aggressive pass rush and an effective one.

Washington got 44 yards on 15 carries from Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler against the Rams. Another quiet night from the backs would put the ball in Daniels’ hands on obvious passing downs. The Giants have a health question of their own on the short week. John Harbaugh expects J.J. McCarthy to play through a hip injury. They tied 27–27 in Week 5. Joe Osborne likes Over 42.5 in his Commanders vs. Giants prediction.

How often can Drake Maye get a clean second look downfield? The Packers pressured Maye on more than half his dropbacks and intercepted him three times before halftime. Aidan Hutchinson gives the Lions a way to hurry that second read without blitzing, leaving an extra defender available to help on the deep ball.

That help matters in Munich. The Patriots have gained at least 20 yards on 35 dropbacks this season, and the Lions have allowed 35 such gains. A quick throw that gets Maye out of trouble is a win for Detroit if the first defender makes the tackle. A missed tackle gives New England another way to find those yards.

Kenneth Walker III gives the Chiefs an answer if Patrick Mahomes’ elbow limits him. Walker scored twice as a receiver and once as a runner against the Jets. The Chiefs average 5.3 yards on designed runs, while the Falcons allow 4.7. Those handoffs can put Mahomes in second-and-short and force a linebacker to account for Walker when he releases into the flat.

Mahomes is day-to-day with a bruise to his throwing elbow. Atlanta’s best chance to make that matter is to win first down and take away the easy throw. Michael Penix Jr. also faces a protection test after the Bengals repeatedly pressured him in Madrid.

Protection is Cleveland’s problem regardless of who starts at quarterback. The Browns have surrendered 38 sacks through nine weeks. The Texans just brought Justin Herbert down eight times, and playing deep to protect against a quick score will do little good if Cleveland repeatedly hands the ball back after three plays.

Shedeur Sanders showed the Browns’ counter against the Saints, hitting three downfield completions for 154 yards. Houston has given up 32 gains of at least 20 yards on dropbacks. Todd Monken has yet to name his starter, but an early shot off play-action makes more sense than waiting until third-and-long to test that secondary.

The Vikings’ pass rush gives Jordan Love a much different test than his last one. Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots. Minnesota has sacked opposing quarterbacks on 10.7% of dropbacks and allowed only 16 gains of 20-plus yards on those plays. Taking the short completion may be Love’s best way to keep the pass rush from deciding the drive.

The trouble is giving the defense time to recover. Minnesota went 0-for-8 on third down Monday night. Carson Wentz threw two interceptions before Max Brosmer relieved him, and Kyler Murray missed the game with a hamstring injury. Even a modest gain on first down would open up more of the playbook at Lambeau.

Third-and-long has been a poor bargain for the Colts. They converted three of 13 third downs against the Cowboys and went three-and-out on four of their first five possessions. Jonathan Taylor gives them a way around that problem, although the Dolphins just held Jahmyr Gibbs to 3.7 yards per carry.

Miami held Jared Goff to 170 passing yards and still lost because its offense managed nine points. Malik Willis’ groin injury adds another question for a passing game that already struggled to finish drives. The Colts have allowed 31 gains of 20-plus yards on dropbacks. A completion behind their linebackers could do more for the Dolphins than another long series that ends with a kick.

The Saints have a reason to keep handing the ball off against Carolina. New Orleans picked up 155 yards on 31 carries against the Browns. In their first game after changing defensive coordinators, the Panthers gave up an 80-yard, 14-play touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Those short gains matter when they let an offense use all three downs to move the chains.

The Panthers have a quicker route to points. They have produced 29 gains of at least 20 yards on dropbacks, exactly as many as the Saints have conceded. One completion over the top can undo a lot of possession time, especially if New Orleans settles for field goals on its longer drives.

The Bills can win this game two different ways on first down. James Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards in Minnesota, where Buffalo put together two 15-play scoring drives. Bring an extra defender down to stop Cook and Josh Allen gets a chance to attack a secondary that has already allowed 25 gains of 20-plus yards on dropbacks.

The Jets settled for four field goals against the Chiefs and never scored a touchdown. That’s a tough formula against an opponent that can drain most of a quarter on one possession. Getting the ball to Breece Hall in space would give New York a chance to finish a drive without putting the entire burden on its pass protection.

Trevor Lawrence can attack the part of the Titans’ defense that held up least well before the bye. Lawrence completed passes of 52 and 50 yards against the Ravens. Tennessee has allowed 30 gains of 20-plus yards on dropbacks, and Robert Saleh singled out explosive passes and third-down defense as areas his team needed to address.

Two deep safeties can help keep the ball in front of Tennessee, but Jacksonville has been efficient enough to take the shorter throw. More than half its first- and second-down dropbacks have increased its expected points. Getting home with four rushers would let the Titans contest both areas without sacrificing a defender.

Arizona won the first meeting 18–16, but recreating that game will take a different passing attack. The Cardinals have lost Michael Wilson for the season. Gardner Minshew injured his throwing arm against Seattle, and rookie Carson Beck is an option if Minshew can’t go. That is an awkward time to see Myles Garrett, who had three sacks in his return against Washington.

The Rams have their own adjustment with Puka Nacua dealing with knee and toe injuries. Their running game offers a steadier starting point at 4.8 yards per designed carry. The Cardinals are allowing 3.9, so the battle up front may determine whether Los Angeles can keep the game on favorable downs.

Las Vegas needs to turn a long drive into seven points when it gets the chance. The Raiders reached the half-yard line on consecutive possessions against the 49ers and came away empty both times. Running it in looks difficult against a Seahawks defense allowing 3.3 yards per designed carry. A throw on an early down near the goal line would force Seattle to defend the full width of the field.

Drew Lock gets another start after completing 19 of 28 passes without an interception against the Cardinals. Zach Charbonnet added 77 yards on 16 carries. With the Raiders yielding more than five yards per designed run, Seattle can lean on Charbonnet without asking Lock to spend the afternoon converting third-and-long.

The 49ers can make the Cowboys defend the same drive for a very long time. San Francisco opened the Raiders game with touchdown marches of 12, 13 and 12 plays. Dallas is giving up five yards per designed run, which makes sticking with light boxes an expensive way to keep defenders available for coverage.

The Cowboys can answer more quickly. Dak Prescott has taken only 14 sacks on 368 dropbacks, and CeeDee Lamb repeatedly got behind the Colts’ secondary. The 49ers have allowed just 18 gains of at least 20 yards on dropbacks. Making Dallas earn the shorter completions would keep the Cowboys from erasing a long scoring drive in a couple of snaps.

Pittsburgh’s first win over Cincinnati came by a field goal, and the ground game gives the Steelers a way to keep this one close. The Steelers average 5.2 yards on designed runs. The Bengals allow 4.5, enough for Pittsburgh to stay patient on second down and avoid giving Joe Burrow the ball back after a pair of incompletions.

Burrow has made early passing downs count. More than 56% of Cincinnati’s first- and second-down dropbacks have added expected points. Both clubs enter at 6–2 after four straight wins, but the Steelers come off a bye while the Bengals return from Madrid.

How much time can the Chargers buy Justin Herbert? Houston sacked him eight times. His 58-yard touchdown to Quentin Johnston showed the payoff when a route has time to develop, but the Chargers have lost more than one in 10 dropbacks to sacks this season. Baltimore has managed just 17 sacks, so this is a chance for the tackles to give Herbert time without extra protection.

Jesse Minter expects Jacoby Brissett to start for the Ravens. With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley on injured reserve, Baltimore has an incentive to build around Derrick Henry and give Brissett manageable throws. The Chargers can complicate that plan by slowing Henry with their front rather than borrowing a safety from coverage.