This is a game made for people like you and me: a prime-time matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers, who haven't covered a game, and the Baltimore Ravens, who are on their fourth quarterback after trading for Jacoby Brissett.
The NFL picks are writing themselves.
Don't get too cute with this one; the Ravens will run, and the Chargers' offense will struggle.
Here are my Chargers vs. Ravens predictions for Week 10 Monday Night Football.
Chargers vs Ravens prediction: Under 38.5
Not only are the Chargers 0-7-1 ATS this year, but they're also 6-2 to the Under, with their opponents scoring 44 and 30 points in those two Overs. I'm not expecting the Ravens to light up the scoreboard with Jacoby Brissett under center and not running the entire call sheet.
They were already one of the slowest-paced teams, per THE BLITZ, but could be even slower in and out of the huddle with a new voice.
The Chargers are already the worst-scoring offense in football, and Ladd McConkey didn't practice on Thursday and missed last week. Even when the Chargers have to turn up the pass rate when trailing, Justin Herbert is getting taken down.
Herbert is among the NFL's most-sacked quarterbacks and went down eight times last week while trying to rally against Houston
It's a preseason total, but will the Baltimore offense look that much different than Week 9 TNF?
The Chargers could be changing starters on the O-line as well, adding to the pressure. Don't expect many explosive plays on Monday night.
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Chargers vs Ravens combo
Derrick Henry's anytime TD is +EV at the current 53% probability, with a fair price of 55%. If the Ravens get into the red zone, I don't expect them to get cute with a new QB under center. It'll be hand the ball to Henry three straight times, eat the clock, and control the game.
Omarion Hampton's rushing Over is also +EV, with a projection of 53 yards. Hampton led the backfield with 13 carries last week in a blowout loss, while Keaton Mitchell's fumble could eat into his 25% workload.
Pairing the TD prop with Under 38.5 boosts the overall price. This has the makings of a slow, run-first game, with pressure on Justin Herbert and the Chargers' struggling offensive line potentially keeping them behind the sticks all night.
Chargers vs Ravens combo
- Derrick Henry anytime touchdown
- Omarion Hampton Over 29.5 rushing yards
- Under 38.5
TOP PICK
Chargers vs Ravens player prop: Derrick Henry Over 79.5 rushing yards
Derrick Henry projects for 94 rushing yards on more than 20 carries Monday night, and I expect his rushing total to climb heading into kickoff. I'd confidently play Henry to reach 80+ yards at up to 55%.
Jacoby Brissett has already admitted he's been on a "crash course" with the offense, which should shrink the play-calling menu and likely put more emphasis on the running game.
Another reason to expect a run-heavy approach from Baltimore is the state of the Chargers' offense. LA is the lowest-scoring unit in football, ranks second-last in red-zone opportunities per game and has the fourth-worst red-zone TD rate.
Add in an offensive line allowing 3.9 sacks per game (second-most in the NFL), coming off an eight-sack performance against Houston, and potentially facing personnel changes, and Baltimore might not need to throw much at all Monday night.
COVERS INTEL: Justin Herbert is the second-most-sacked QB in football, but even when he has a clean pocket, he is still failing to complete passes, ranking 33rd among passers in completion percentage. On 3rd and 4th downs, he ranks 26th in success rate and 28th in EPA/pass. The Chargers have led for just 66 minutes this year and have seen the fourth-most rush attempts per game as a result. Since Week 5, the Chargers rank 26th in rush defense by EPA per carry.Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 6-2, +3.78 units
- Combos: 0-8, -8 units
Chargers vs Ravens odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Chargers +4.5 | Ravens -4.5
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (52%) | Under 38.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Chargers 34% | Ravens 66%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Chargers vs Ravens weather
There is little to no chance of rain in Baltimore, with temperatures sitting at 43 degrees at kickoff and 6.3-mph winds blowing corner to corner.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Chargers vs Ravens trend to know
The Los Angeles Chargers have only hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 18 games (-10.15 Units / -49% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Ravens.
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How to watch Chargers vs Ravens
| Location | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md. |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 16, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Chargers vs Ravens latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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