The Covers Anytime TD Value Index keeps finding players with good prices and a nose for the end zone.
Last week's No. 1 pick in our index, D'Andre Swift, scored three touchdowns on the week.
Here are the best anytime TD scorer predictions for NFL Week 10. Need more? Check out our NFL picks, NFL AI predictions, NFL Week 10 ATS picks, and Week 10 opening odds.
Best anytime TD scorer predictions this week
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds converter, or compare prices for every game on our NFL prediction market page.
| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 34% | 82 |
| Emanuel Wilson ( vs. ) |
Running back | 9% | 80 |
| James Cook III (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 60% | 77 |
| Mike Washington Jr. ( vs. ) |
Running back | 22% | 75 |
| Kaelon Black (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 24% | 74 |
| Omarion Hampton (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 13% | 73 |
| Christian McCaffrey ( vs. ) |
Running back | 70% | 73 |
| Kyle Juszczyk ( vs. ) |
Running back | 12% | 72 |
| Corey Kiner (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 45% | 72 |
| AJ Barner ( vs. ) |
Tight end | 26% | 71 |
| Braelon Allen ( vs. ) |
Running back | 33% | 71 |
| Audric Estime (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 35% | 71 |
| Ty Johnson ( vs. ) |
Running back | 15% | 70 |
| Quinshon Judkins (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 33% | 70 |
| Jordan Watkins ( vs. ) |
Wide receiver | 23% | 70 |
| Kyren Williams (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 56% | 70 |
| Ollie Gordon II (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 41% | 69 |
| Alvin Kamara ( vs. ) |
Running back | 32% | 69 |
| George Kittle ( vs. ) |
Tight end | 47% | 69 |
| Ray Davis ( vs. ) |
Running back | 7% | 68 |
| Demarcus Robinson ( vs. ) |
Wide receiver | 20% | 68 |
| Keenan Allen ( vs. ) |
Wide receiver | 20% | 68 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (  vs.  ) |
Running back | 35% | 68 |
| Derrick Henry ( vs. ) |
Running back | 49% | 68 |
| Jonathan Taylor ( vs. ) |
Running back | 54% | 68 |
Accurate as of Nov. 12. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Best Week 10 anytime TD predictions
Ashton Jeanty | Running back 34%
The market illusion: "Seattle's league-worst red-zone defense makes Jeanty an automatic touchdown buy."
The structural reality: Ashton Jeanty has one of the slate's strongest season-long opportunity profiles. He has recorded 33 red-zone opportunities, comprising 23 carries and 10 targets, and controls 51% of Las Vegas' red-zone carries. That combination of rushing and receiving access explains the maximum 25-point RZG score. The problem is conversion: those opportunities have produced only four touchdowns.
His workload is also moving in the wrong direction. Jeanty's season carry share is 61%, but it has fallen to 51% over the last three games as Mike Washington Jr. has climbed to 29%. Jeanty has recorded only 26 rushing attempts across his last four games, including two and six in the two most recent contests. His receiving role remains useful, but an anytime-touchdown price should not treat catches between the 20s as equivalent to protected goal-line carries.
At 34%, the market requires a touchdown once every 2.94 games. Seattle has allowed touchdowns on 79% of opponent red-zone possessions, but Las Vegas carries an implied total of only 17 points as a 6.5-point underdog. That creates a major tension between elite matchup quality and limited scoring opportunities. My working fair range is approximately 30% to 34%. I would want 31% or lower unless Jeanty's recent carry decline reverses.
Emanuel Wilson | Running back 9%
The market illusion: "Seven goal-line carries make Wilson an obvious longshot value."
The structural reality: Emanuel Wilson has accumulated 18 red-zone opportunities, including 17 carries and seven attempts near the goal line. He has accounted for 40% of Seattle's red-zone carries, but those chances have produced only two red-zone touchdowns. The historical scoring access is real, which is why his 9% market probability initially looks extremely low.
The index is anchored too heavily to season-long usage. Wilson received no carries in either of Seattle's last two games and did not play in Week 9. Zach Charbonnet has returned from his ACL injury and absorbed 42% of the carries across the two-game comparison window, while Wilson's recent share has fallen sharply. Wilson is not listed on Seattle's initial Week 10 injury report, so this appears to be a role problem rather than a current injury designation.
At 9%, the market requires one touchdown every 11.11 games. Las Vegas has allowed touchdowns on 71% of red-zone trips, and Seattle's 23.5-point implied total is favorable. However, neither statistic matters if Wilson remains outside the offensive rotation. My fair range is only 5% to 8% without evidence of restored carries. I would want approximately 6% or lower, or confirmation that Wilson will reclaim short-yardage work.
James Cook III | Running back 60%
The market illusion: "Buffalo's huge team total makes a Cook touchdown nearly inevitable."
The structural reality: James Cook III has recorded 35 red-zone opportunities, including 33 carries, and has scored eight times from that area. He controls 60% of Buffalo's red-zone carries and 65% of all team carries, with that overall rushing share holding steady over the last three games. This is genuine workhorse usage on an offense converting 69% of its red-zone possessions.
Josh Allen remains the central complication. Allen has 18 red-zone carries and eight touchdowns of his own, accounting for one-third of Buffalo's red-zone rushing attempts. His recent overall carry share has declined from 23% to 16%, which helps Cook, but quarterback keepers and sneaks still reduce the back's monopoly inside the 5. The matchup also is not effortless between the 20s: New York's safety group has graded strongly against the run even though its red-zone results have been poor.
At 60%, Cook must score once every 1.67 games. Buffalo has the slate's second-highest implied team total at 29.5 points, while the Jets have surrendered touchdowns on 69% of opponent red-zone trips. Those conditions support a high price, but they are already embedded in the market. My fair range is approximately 56% to 61%. The submitted level is playable but not a large edge. I would prefer 57% or lower.
Kyle Juszczyk | Running back 12%
The market illusion: "A fullback cannot offer value while Christian McCaffrey is healthy."
The structural reality: Kyle Juszczyk has a highly specialized scoring role rather than conventional running-back volume. He has only one carry and a 5% target share this season, but he has received four red-zone touches. San Francisco can release him from the backfield after selling outside zone, or use him as the unexpected ball carrier when defenses flow toward McCaffrey.
That package-specific role also explains the danger of relying on the index score. McCaffrey controls 44% of San Francisco's carries, 20% of its targets and 32 red-zone opportunities. Juszczyk's scoring chances are deliberately scarce, and his recent return from a knee hyperextension adds another layer of uncertainty. His value depends on one schemed high-leverage touch, not a repeatable share of the offense.
At 12%, the market requires one touchdown every 8.33 games. San Francisco owns the slate's highest implied total at 29.75 points, converts 85% of its red-zone trips and faces a Dallas defense allowing touchdowns on 69% of such possessions. The environment is almost perfect, but the player-specific opportunity remains tiny. My fair range is 8% to 11%. I would want approximately 9% unless his goal-line package has expanded following the injury.
George Kittle | Tight end 47%
The market illusion: "Kittle's role and the slate's best scoring environment justify any price below 50%."
The structural reality: George Kittle has drawn 12 red-zone targets and ranks among the league leaders in targets from inside the 10. He leads San Francisco with a 23% season target share, which has increased to 27% over the last three games. He has scored five touchdowns in eight appearances, and Mike Evans' recent absence has further concentrated the passing offense around Kittle and McCaffrey.
Dallas has permitted touchdowns on 69% of opponent red-zone possessions, while its coverage against tight ends has allowed an adjusted 79% completion rate. Kittle can attack linebackers on play-action crossers and safeties on seams or corner routes. The concern is touchdown competition: San Francisco has converted 23 of 27 red-zone trips, and McCaffrey has accounted for 10 red-zone scores. A strong team environment does not guarantee Kittle receives the finishing opportunity.
At 47%, the market requires a touchdown once every 2.13 games. San Francisco's 29.75-point implied total and 85% red-zone efficiency support one of the highest tight-end prices on the slate, but 47% leaves little margin for target variance. My fair range is approximately 39% to 44%. The matchup is excellent, but the submitted price is too short. I would want 41% or lower.
Derrick Henry | Running back 49%
The market illusion: "Baltimore's recent offensive struggles have made Henry's goal-line role unreliable."
The structural reality: Derrick Henry owns the strongest touchdown-specific rushing role in this group. He has received 40 red-zone carries and 16 attempts inside the 5, scoring seven times on those goal-line opportunities. Henry controls 82% of Baltimore's red-zone carries, 84% of its inside-the-5 attempts and 50% of the team's red-zone touchdowns.
There are recent warning signs. His overall carry share has fallen from 70% to 53% across the latest two-game comparison, while Justice Hill's rushing and receiving involvement has increased. Henry has also failed to score in three of his last four games. Still, Jacoby Brissett replacing Lamar Jackson reduces quarterback-designed-run competition, and Baltimore is projected to employ one of the week's most run-heavy approaches.
At the submitted 49%, Henry needs to score once every 2.04 games. Baltimore's implied total is only 21.5 points, and the Chargers have held opponents to a 53% red-zone touchdown rate. That prevents this from becoming an exceptional edge, but the role supports a working fair range of 49% to 54%. I would accept 49% if still available. The broader market near 57% is too expensive.
Jonathan Taylor | Running back 54%
The market illusion: "Taylor's 15 inside-the-5 carries make him matchup-proof at any price near even money."
The structural reality: Jonathan Taylor has logged 34 red-zone opportunities, including 32 carries, and controls 70% of Indianapolis' red-zone rushing work. His 15 submitted inside-the-5 carries establish an elite scoring role, while his eight total rushing touchdowns confirm that the Colts regularly finish drives through him.
The concern is opportunity concentration within a weak offense. Indianapolis averages only 2.7 red-zone trips per game and converts 58% into touchdowns. Taylor's carry share has fallen from 70% for the season to 62% recently, while Seth McGowan has risen to 23%. Taylor has also recorded just 21 carries across his last two games, with neither producing a touchdown. His role remains excellent, but the frequency of usable scoring possessions has declined.
At 54%, the market requires a touchdown once every 1.85 games. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point favorite, but its implied total is only 20.75 in the slate's lowest-totaled game. Miami's 59% red-zone touchdown rate allowed is close to league average rather than a major advantage. My fair range is approximately 45% to 50%. The market is charging for Taylor's name and season-long role without sufficiently discounting the team environment. I would want 47% or lower.
Week 10 anytime touchdown props to avoid
Every week, the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index flags the five worst anytime touchdown propositions on the board. We aren't talking about the longest odds or the lowest raw probabilities.
We are talking about negative ROI. These are the spots where the public narrative has inflated the price so severely that the trade is mathematically unprofitable.
Consider these fades before you trade on Kalshi.
| Player | Position | Odds | Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson ( vs. ) |
Wide receiver | 16% | 43 | Vertical usage faces stingy red-zone resistance. |
| Cam Ward ( vs. ) |
QB | 7% | 42 | Scramble equity faces stingy red-zone resistance. |
| Jonnu Smith (  vs.  ) |
Tight end | 5% | 41 | Short-area usage faces stingy red-zone resistance. |
| Devin Duvernay ( vs. ) |
Wide receiver | 7% | 40 | Red-zone route role looks discounted against the Rams. |
| Carson Beck ( vs. ) |
QB | 9% | 40 | Rushing involvement suffers low team expectations. |
NFL Week 10 best anytime touchdown props by position
If you are strictly a running back investor, or you only trade tight end markets, we have you covered.
The Index breaks down the board by position, highlighting the 10 clearest value plays across each skill group so you aren't blindly navigating a crowded market. Prefer a first-scorer angle? See our NFL first touchdown scorer picks for Week 10.
Top 10 quarterback TD props for Week 10
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen ( vs. ) |
60% | 67 | Ten goal-line carries strengthen rushing touchdown floor. |
| Brock Purdy ( vs. ) |
27% | 66 | Improvised rushing access meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Tyler Shough ( vs. ) |
25% | 63 | Rushing involvement meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Trevor Lawrence ( vs. ) |
17% | 62 | Scramble equity rides premium scoring environment. |
| Matthew Stafford ( vs. ) |
5% | 60 | Keeper potential meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Jared Goff ( vs. ) |
5% | 58 | Chest limitation adds uncertainty to rushing longshot. |
| Patrick Mahomes (  vs.  ) |
15% | 58 | Goal-line mobility lands near fair value. |
| Drake Maye ( vs. ) |
25% | 58 | Goal-line mobility meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Fernando Mendoza ( vs. ) |
14% | 56 | Designed keeper usage meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Dak Prescott ( vs. ) |
12% | 55 | Improvised rushing access lands near fair value. |
Top 10 running back TD props for Week 10
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty ( vs. ) |
34% | 82 | Heavy red-zone volume masks poor goal-line conversion. |
| Emanuel Wilson ( vs. ) |
9% | 80 | Seven goal-line carries create overlooked scoring leverage. |
| James Cook III ( vs. ) |
60% | 77 | Heavy goal-line volume pairs with elite total. |
| Mike Washington Jr. ( vs. ) |
22% | 75 | Seven goal-line carries remain frustratingly scoreless. |
| Kaelon Black ( vs. ) |
24% | 74 | Rushing role meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Omarion Hampton ( vs. ) |
13% | 73 | Sixty-percent red-zone carry share beats longshot price. |
| Christian McCaffrey ( vs. ) |
70% | 73 | Fourteen inside-the-5 carries meet Dallas vulnerability. |
| Kyle Juszczyk ( vs. ) |
12% | 72 | Touchdown-specific usage meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Corey Kiner ( vs. ) |
45% | 72 | Doubtful starter unlocks projected backfield majority. |
| Braelon Allen ( vs. ) |
33% | 71 | Rising carry share confronts Buffalo game-script risk. |
Top 10 wide receiver TD props for Week 10
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Watkins ( vs. ) |
23% | 70 | Secondary target role meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Demarcus Robinson ( vs. ) |
20% | 68 | Perimeter usage meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Keenan Allen ( vs. ) |
20% | 68 | Motion-created chance meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Khalil Shakir ( vs. ) |
25% | 67 | Featured route role meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Jacob Cowing ( vs. ) |
5% | 66 | Red-zone route role meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| DJ Moore ( vs. ) |
33% | 66 | Deep-ball path meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Chris Olave ( vs. ) |
39% | 66 | Boundary role meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Tutu Atwell ( vs. ) |
7% | 65 | Vacated target share sharply expands route opportunity. |
| Brandin Cooks ( vs. ) |
6% | 65 | Vertical usage meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Keon Coleman ( vs. ) |
21% | 65 | End-zone involvement meets soft red-zone resistance. |
Top 10 tight end TD props for Week 10
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner ( vs. ) |
26% | 71 | Blended rushing-receiving role boosts touchdown routes. |
| George Kittle ( vs. ) |
47% | 69 | Twelve red-zone targets enter slate's best environment. |
| Luke Farrell ( vs. ) |
7% | 67 | Middle-field route role meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Trey McBride ( vs. ) |
27% | 66 | League-leading red-zone targets sustain receiving touchdown appeal. |
| Dawson Knox ( vs. ) |
15% | 66 | Seam involvement meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Juwan Johnson ( vs. ) |
24% | 66 | Move-tight-end usage meets soft red-zone resistance. |
| Dalton Kincaid ( vs. ) |
28% | 66 | Ankle limitation tempers stable tight-end role. |
| Brenton Strange ( vs. ) |
24% | 65 | Middle-field route role rides premium scoring environment. |
| Brock Bowers ( vs. ) |
31% | 65 | Twelve red-zone targets support discounted tight-end appeal. |
| Keleki Latu ( vs. ) |
8% | 64 | Blocking-heavy role meets soft red-zone resistance. |
How we decide which Week 10 NFL anytime TDs to pick
Behind the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index is a screening matrix built on structural math to help make the best anytime TD scorer predictions every week. For the raw player numbers, browse our NFL prop projections.
We don't care about media hype. We don't care who went viral on Sunday.
Our system runs a multi-layered data ingest, cross-referencing live play-by-play mechanics against odds from the sharpest sportsbooks in the world. We look at more than 20 hyper-specific metrics, including:
| Player red-zone touches, inside the opponent's 20-yard line | Weekly point spread |
| Player goal-to-go touches, approximated as touches inside the 5-yard line | Implied team total, derived from the total and spread |
| Player share of the team's red-zone touches | Best available anytime-touchdown price |
| Player share of the team's goal-to-go touches | Number of sportsbooks offering that price |
| Player red-zone touchdowns | Implied probability |
| Player red-zone touchdown rate per red-zone touch | Median market implied probability when multiple books are supplied |
| Team red-zone trips | Number of completed games played by the player's team |
| Team offensive red-zone touchdown percentage | Prior-season weighting, used while the current-season sample develops |
| Opponent red-zone trips faced | Current injuries, availability, workload changes, and role stability |
| Opponent red-zone touchdown percentage allowed | Player position, team, opponent, and scheduled matchup |
| Weekly game total | |
This isn't a black box running on mystery algorithms. It is a highly calibrated heuristic engine.
We map our proprietary scoring against the market's implied probability to isolate the exact friction points where pricing lags behind actual on-field volume. It is a premium, data-driven edge built to find the value before the market wakes up.
The lines are already moving. The public is currently throwing money at stale narratives. Trust the math and exploit the structural friction to secure your closing line value before kickoff.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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