Four quarterbacks take over starting jobs in Week 10, and I’m backing each a little differently.
I like Jacoby Brissett and Fernando Mendoza to pick up yards with their legs, Kyle McCord to clear a low passing total, and the Rams to keep Carson Beck quiet.
My NFL QB prop picks break down the matchup and price for each play. Let’s get into all four as part of our NFL picks.
NFL QB prop picks for Week 10
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| Quarterback |  |
|---|---|
 Jacoby Brissett |
10+ rushing yards 37% |
 Fernando Mendoza |
15+ rushing yards 50% |
 Kyle McCord |
150+ passing yards 60% |
 Carson Beck |
Under 175 passing yards 49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jacoby Brissett prop pick
Chargers vs Ravens: Jacoby Brissett 10+ rushing yards
Jacoby Brissett cleared 10 rushing yards in four of eight appearances with the Cardinals, including 14 against the Chargers in Week 1. He also produced games of 16, 18, and 19 yards, showing this threshold is within reach without a breakaway run.
At 37%, I'm backing a few scrambles rather than a heavy rushing workload. Two productive escapes could cash this modest target while Derrick Henry handles the designed running game.
Fernando Mendoza prop pick
Seahawks vs Raiders: Fernando Mendoza 15+ rushing yards
Fernando Mendoza rushed for 276 yards and seven touchdowns in his final college season. He now faces a Seattle Seahawks defense allowing 4.1 yards per play, making sustained passing success a difficult assignment in his first NFL start.
I'm targeting his ability to escape instead. If coverage closes his initial throwing window, a few scrambles could produce 15 yards. At 50%, that offers a plausible alternative to relying on multiple scoring drives.
Kyle McCord prop pick
Dolphins vs Colts: Kyle McCord 150+ passing yards
The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 8.1 yards per pass attempt, with 16 passing touchdowns conceded against only two interceptions. That's a favorable setting for Kyle McCord to collect yards without needing a spectacular debut or multiple scoring drives.
The target is modest: 25 attempts at six yards apiece would get him to 150. I'm backing enough completions and receiving production to reach that number, even if the Dolphins struggle to finish drives.
Carson Beck prop pick
Rams vs Cardinals: Carson Beck Under 175 passing yards
The Rams have held opposing passers to 6.4 yards per attempt and a 61.1% completion rate. That presents a difficult debut for Carson Beck, who must keep drives alive rather than pile up attempts while trailing.
Trey McBride gives him a dependable target, but I'm backing the Rams to limit explosive gains. This contract cashes at 174 yards or fewer, allowing a respectable first start without needing a complete offensive collapse.
Probabilities are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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