I finally put the belt to ass in last week's NFL moneyline picks, finishing with a 12-2 record (+4.04 units) and building plenty of momentum heading into a new slate.
Let's keep stacking wins as we kick things off with the New York Giants taking care of business against the Washington Commanders on TNF.
Here are my latest NFL picks for Week 10.
My NFL moneyline record is 85-50 this season for +4.23 units.
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Commanders vs  Giants |
56% |
 Patriots vs  Lions |
58% |
 Jaguars vs  Titans |
84% |
 Texans vs  Browns |
68% |
 Vikings vs  Packers |
67% |
 Chiefs vs  Falcons |
64% |
 Dolphins vs  Colts |
45% |
 Panthers vs  Saints |
52% |
 Bills vs  Jets |
80% |
 Rams vs  Cardinals |
80% |
 Seahawks vs  Raiders |
63% |
 49ers vs  Cowboys |
67% |
 Steelers vs  Bengals |
65% |
 Chargers vs  Ravens |
67% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 10 NFL moneyline picks
Commanders vs. Giants: Giants
While Washington's pathetic offensive line continues to hold Jayden Daniels back, the Giants are coming off a big road win in Philly.
Rookie linebacker Arvell Reese led the way with three sacks and a forced fumble, and I like this pass rush to give Daniels fits on TNF.
Patriots vs. Lions: Lions
With RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson banged up and A.J. Brown still sidelined, the Lions have the edge in Munich.
New England's defense is coming off allowing 45 points at home, and Detroit’s offense will be able to capitalize overseas.
Jaguars vs. Titans: Jaguars
Jacksonville just hung 33 points on Baltimore, ranks third in both offensive and defensive EPA, and added Pro Bowl safety Jessie Bates and star defensive tackle Jordan Davis on Monday.
Another double-digit win is in store against the basement-dwelling Titans.
Texans vs. Browns: Texans
C.J. Stroud quietly boasts a 104.8 passer rating on the season, fresh off a five-touchdown performance against the Chargers, while Houston's pass rush was just as lethal, sacking Justin Herbert eight times.
Cleveland's run defense has cratered since losing Maliek Collins (155 rushing yards allowed to the Saints), and Deshaun Watson is set to return behind a struggling O-line that the Texans will feast on.
Vikings vs. Packers: Packers
Jordan Love is playing lights out right now, and the Packers made a statement in Foxborough with a double-digit rout.
With the Vikings' QB situation a complete mess following a Carson Wentz disaster class, I'm rolling with the Packers at home.
Chiefs vs. Falcons: Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes' elbow scare ended with an MRI that revealed no major damage, and he's expected to play after leading a 35-12 rout of the Jets.
Atlanta was just embarrassed overseas by Cincinnati, and its offense ranks 25th in EPA per play. I'm riding with the Chiefs.
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Dolphins vs. Colts: Dolphins
Indy went three-and-out on four of its first five drives against a terrible Cowboys defense, and I'm done giving the Shoe any grace whatsoever.
Miami's defense showed some fight by holding Detroit to a season-low 270 yards, so the plus money is worth a shot.
Panthers vs. Saints: Saints
New Orleans has won five of the last six meetings between these teams, and I can't go back to the Carolina well with linebackers Bobby Okereke and Jaelan Phillips both listed as questionable.
Who Dat Nation prevails in this NFC South showdown.
Bills vs. Jets: Bills
New York has dropped four straight and allowed 28+ points in three consecutive games, so now's not the time to get cute looking for a divisional upset.
Good luck against Josh Allen and the Bills' No. 1-ranked offense.
Rams vs. Cardinals: Rams
Arizona managed just three points against Seattle, and now Gardner Minshew has reportedly torn the UCL in his throwing arm.
With Carson Beck potentially making his first career start, the Rams' fourth-ranked defense by EPA will make things ugly in the desert.
Seahawks vs. Raiders: Seahawks
I'm convinced Drew Lock is actually an upgrade over Sam Darnold, and he once again did an effective job managing the Seahawks' offense against Arizona.
Now facing a Raiders defense allowing a league-high 29.8 points per game, expect Seattle to pull away in Sin City.
49ers vs. Cowboys: 49ers
Dallas' defense ranks last in third-down defense (48.3%), and it committed 14 penalties while needing a late INT to survive a Colts team that went 3-for-13 on third down.
Bang Bang Niner Gang is set to invade Jerry World, and the 49ers will make it five straight wins over the Cowboys dating back to 2022.
Steelers vs. Bengals: Bengals
I'm inclined to side with the best player on the field, and Joe Burrow has emerged as the favorite in the latest NFL MVP odds.
With Pittsburgh's offense remaining stagnant, I have a hard time seeing old man Rodgers keeping pace with Joe Cool.
Chargers vs. Ravens: Ravens
Baltimore is a mess, but Los Angeles is 0-8, ranks last in offensive EPA, and just bled 44 points to Houston.
Justin Herbert ranks dead last among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, so even the Ravens' QB carousel (enter Jacoby Brissett!) shouldn't be an issue at home.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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