My Week 10 Over/Under picks feature a Bills offense against a Jets defense that keeps finding new ways to embarrass itself, two NFC South defenses allergic to making stops, and a Raiders team that's making every opposing offense look like the Greatest Show on Turf.
Let's dig into three games where my NFL picks expect plenty of points on Sunday, Nov. 15.
NFL Week 10 Over picks
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Bills vs Jets: Over 50.5
The New York Jets are somehow getting worse, allowing 33.7 points per game over their last three contests, including letting the Dolphins come into New York and score a season-high 28 points.
The Jets have gone Over in 11 of their last 14 divisional games, Buffalo is 4-1 to the Over in its last five road games.
Panthers vs Saints: Over 48.5
Two awful defenses, two capable offenses, a dome, and a total below 50. What's not to like?
The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints rank 28th and 27th in points allowed, 31st and 28th in opponent third-down conversion percentage, and both rank in the bottom nine in yards allowed per rush attempt. Aside from that, there's still plenty to complain about!
The Panthers defense has completely fallen apart, allowing 26-plus points in three straight games, while four Saints games have featured at least 51 combined points.
This has all the ingredients for an NFC South shootout. A disgusting one, but a shootout nonetheless.
Seahawks vs Raiders: Over 40.5
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone Over in seven straight games, with every game producing at least 55 combined points. Yet here we are with a total of just 40.5.
This is an overreaction to rookie Fernando Mendoza taking over and the Seattle Seahawks' 17-3 snoozefest against Arizona last week.
Let's not pretend every Seahawks game is a low-scoring grind. They've allowed three separate opponents to score 32-plus points.
Drew Lock is expected to start and has been solid when called upon. He should have opportunities against a Raiders defense that's dead last in points allowed (29.8 PPG) and 31st in yards allowed per play.
I'm convinced you could assemble an offense from 11 guys who just got kicked out of a Vegas bachelor party and still hang 30 on this Raiders defense.
Week 10 Over/Under combo
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