Welcome to the Dumpster Bowl!
While the Indianapolis Colts enter as 3.5-point home favorites, my top Dolphins vs. Colts predictions and NFL picks bypass the spread altogether to focus on the game total ahead of the 1 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS.
Our NFL picks have you covered with more analysis ahead of this bottom-barrel clash.
TOP Pick
Dolphins vs Colts prediction today: Under 38.5
This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring football game, and I'm perfectly fine investing in the Under.
The Miami Dolphins aren't terrible defensively, either — ranking 13th in total defense coming into this one.
Neither offense inspires much confidence, and when we're dealing with a total this low, the margin for error is razor-thin.
Sustaining drives, converting third downs, and finishing in the red zone will be critical, and I'm not convinced either team can consistently check those boxes.
COVERS INTEL: The Dolphins have scored a touchdown on just 47% of their red-zone trips this season and enter Week 10 ranked 23rd in EPA per play. This unit won't do enough to eclipse the number.
Dolphins vs Colts combo
There's a clear path for both running backs to see significant volume in this matchup. Seth McGowan has slowly been eating into Jonathan Taylor's workload, clearing this number in two of his last three games.
Meanwhile, Ollie Gordon has become the bell cow in Miami with De'Von Achane out of the picture, and with the Colts coughing up 137 rushing yards per game, there's plenty of runway for Gordon to get his share. I'm feeling warm and cozy here.
We're not asking for anything crazy here. Just a slow, methodical football game.
Dolphins vs Colts combo
- Under 38.5 points
- Ollie Gordon Over 61.5 rushing yards
- Seth McGowan Over 33.5 rushing yards
Dolphins vs Colts touchdown scorer: Caleb Douglas
Caleb Douglas has the speed and big-play ability to turn one touch into six, giving Miami a legitimate home-run threat against Indianapolis. He's emerged as the Dolphins' WR1 and go-to option in the passing game, averaging seven targets over his last two contests.
With backup quarterback Kyle McCord under center, I'm expecting Douglas to be heavily involved early and often, giving him plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.
For more Week 10 touchdown angles, including Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, see our NFL anytime touchdown picks and first touchdown scorer picks for Week 10. For McCord's passing outlook, check our NFL QB props for Week 10.
Dolphins vs Colts player prop: Ollie Gordon Over 68.5 rushing yards
Ollie Gordon has taken over as Miami's workhorse; the matchup couldn't be much better, either, with Indianapolis surrendering 137 rushing yards per game and Gordon averaging close to 20 carries over the last four weeks.
There's plenty of meat on the bone for Ollie to capitalize against a subpar defense that's allowed at least 100 yards on the ground six times this season.
Run, Ollie, Run.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Dolphins vs Colts market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Dolphins vs. Colts prediction.
- Top picks: 53-46-1 +2.94 units
- Combos: 4-11, +5.54 units
Dolphins vs Colts odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Dolphins +3.5 (35%) | Colts -3.5 (65%)
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (46%) | Under 38.5 (55%)
- Moneyline: Dolphins 35% | Colts 65%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Dolphins vs Colts weather
Lucas Oil Stadium is a retractable roof stadium, so weather won't play a part in game conditions.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Dolphins vs Colts trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis. Find more NFL trends for Dolphins vs. Colts.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch Dolphins vs Colts
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Dolphins vs Colts latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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