The Louisville Cardinals visit the Memphis Tigers to renew a historically rich rivalry as 8.5-point favorites, and my Louisville vs. Memphis prediction backs the visitors to turn their frontcourt advantages into a road win.
A win for Louisville would give them their first three-game winning streak against one opponent since 2013.
Memphis has already beaten Iowa State and VCU, but its defensive problems create several scoring routes for Louisville. My college basketball picks start with the Cardinals covering.
TOP PICK
Who will win Louisville vs Memphis: Louisville -8.5
A year ago, this game would have been a much different venture for Pat Kelsey's Louisville Cardinals team. However, with a frontcourt-first, more physical approach in 2026-27, it's poised to cover this number. My projections have the Cardinals as 9-point favorites. This isn't a big edge, but I'm comfortable playing it to there.
Louisville has a direct way to attack the Memphis Tigers without relying on a hot afternoon from three. The Cardinals have made 45 of 64 2-point attempts, just over 70%, through two games. Flory Bidunga supplies some high-end rim finishing, while Obinna Ekezie Jr. gives Kelsey another big who can rebound and stretch the floor.
There are a few areas where I think this combo could hurt the Tigers. Memphis enters this game ranked in the bottom 30th percentile defensively against big cut-and-roll actions and the bottom 15th percentile against pick-and-pop + inside-out actions. These core principles of Kelsey's offense should be able to attack these weaknesses repeatedly.
COVERS INTEL: Five-star freshman Obinna Ekezie Jr. has been one of the most effective scorers in the country over two games on pick-and-pop actions, scoring 1.57 points per possession on such sets. Competition must be considered, but four threes against the Kansas Jayhawks in an exhibition helps you believe he can attack a direct Tigers weakness here.
Louisville vs Memphis Over/Under pick: Over 163.5
I'm on the market here but would lean playing this Over to 50%. Memphis has attempted 35 free throws per game, while Louisville has averaged 27. Both teams have shown ways to generate points by attacking defenders and reaching the line.
Louisville's final form is an elite defense, but they aren't there yet. Chattanooga made 12 of its 15 attempts at the rim in the opener, highlighting this.
Jayden Reid's ability to beat the initial defender would test that issue, forcing Bidunga to help and creating openings behind him. It's also a team juggling playing with pace to help its offense while making concessions on defense because of that.
At the other end, Memphis has struggled to contain both interior finishes and perimeter shooting. Louisville can contribute a large share of the required scoring.
Louisville vs Memphis combo
These are correlated. Louisville scores efficiently enough to establish separation while Memphis generates sufficient offense to keep the total moving. The Cards can create advantages through Bidunga's finishing, Ekezie's ability to pull a defender away from the basket, and guards attacking the space those actions open.
Memphis does not need to match Louisville possession for possession; it needs its primary creators productive enough to prevent a lengthy scoring drought.
Louisville vs Memphis combo
- Over 163.5
- Louisville -8.5
- Top picks: 3-3, -0.30 units
- Combos: 2-4, +1.91 units
Louisville vs Memphis odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Louisville -8.5 | Memphis +8.5
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 | Under 163.5
- Moneyline: Louisville 80% | Memphis 20%
Check the latest college basketball odds for more on today's Louisville vs. Memphis matchup.
Louisville vs Memphis trend
The Over is 4-0 in Memphis' last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch Louisville vs Memphis
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, Tenn. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Tip off | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Louisville vs Memphis latest injuries
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