Our Week 5 college football Top Picks for Saturday are here: one top pick from each of today's biggest games, listed in kickoff order (all times ET) with the analyst behind every play.
A "top pick" is the analyst's best angle in that preview, which isn't always the point spread. Lines move, so confirm the number on the college football oddsboard before locking in your picks.
Week 5 top picks at a glance (Saturday, Oct. 3)
| Matchup & kickoff | Top pick & analyst |
|---|---|
| Alabama vs. Mississippi State Noon |
Over 59.5 Chris Hatfield |
| Michigan vs. Minnesota Noon |
Michigan -5.5 Rob Paul |
| Navy vs. Air Force Noon |
Navy +3.5 Geoff Clark |
| Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Noon |
Notre Dame -21.5 Colby Marchio |
| Vanderbilt vs. Georgia 12:45 p.m. |
Georgia -14.5 (1H) Jason Ence |
| Florida vs. Missouri 3:30 p.m. |
Under 57.5 Chris Hatfield |
| Ohio State vs. Iowa 3:30 p.m. |
Ohio State -14.5 Rob Paul |
| BYU vs. TCU 7 p.m. |
BYU team total Under 27.5 Nick Galaida |
| Miami vs. Clemson 7:30 p.m. |
Miami -16.5 J.D. Yonke |
| Texas Tech vs. Colorado 7:30 p.m. |
Under 50.5 Geoff Clark |
| Washington vs. USC 7:30 p.m. |
Washington +9.5 J.D. Yonke |
| Indiana vs. Rutgers 8 p.m. |
Under 56.5 Ed Scimia |
| Baylor vs. Arizona State 10:30 p.m. |
Under 47.5 Nick Galaida |
| Cincinnati vs. Arizona 11 p.m. |
Arizona -6.5 Geoff Clark |
| San Jose State vs. Hawaii Midnight |
San Jose State +2.5 J.D. Yonke |
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Noon ET kickoffs
Alabama vs. Mississippi State
- Kickoff: Noon
- TV: ABC
- Analyst: Chris Hatfield
Top pick: Over 59.5
Alabama is a 5.5-point road favorite in Starkville, but Chris Hatfield’s Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction and picks point to the total.
He sees both offenses finding a path to points, with Mississippi State’s run game (fourth nationally in rushing success rate) keeping the Bulldogs balanced. His script has the home team starting fast, Alabama rallying, and both sides landing in the mid-30s. He also likes Mississippi State to cover.
Michigan vs. Minnesota
- Kickoff: Noon
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Rob Paul
Top pick: Michigan -5.5
Rob Paul’s Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction and picks back the Wolverines to cover and keep the Little Brown Jug for a seventh straight year.
The case rests on Michigan’s defense, which ranks eighth in EPA per rush, against a Minnesota ground game sitting 103rd. Paul projects a 23-17 Michigan win and pairs the side with the Under.
Navy vs. Air Force
- Kickoff: Noon
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Navy +3.5
In his Navy vs. Air Force prediction and picks, Geoff Clark takes the Midshipmen’s points (he’d play it down to +3). Navy’s rushing offense ranks 10th in EPA per rush, while Air Force’s defense is 134th in EPA per rush allowed.
Clark also likes the Under, noting service-academy Unders are 47-12-1 since 2005.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
- Kickoff: Noon
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Colby Marchio
Top pick: Notre Dame -21.5
Colby Marchio expects the Irish to take care of business.
His Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction and picks argue that, with BYU still two weeks away, there is little look-ahead risk, so he is comfortable laying the 21.5 points.
Early afternoon
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia
- Kickoff: 12:45 p.m.
- TV: SEC Network
- Analyst: Jason Ence
Top pick: Georgia -14.5 (first half)
Jason Ence’s Vanderbilt vs. Georgia prediction and picks split the game in two. Georgia has been dominant before halftime (only one of the seven touchdowns it has allowed came in the first half), but it tends to ease off late.
That makes the first-half line his best play, while he leans toward a Vanderbilt backdoor cover on the full-game number.
3:30 p.m. ET kickoffs
Florida vs. Missouri
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m.
- TV: ABC
- Analyst: Chris Hatfield
Top pick: Under 57.5
No. 8 Florida arrives off a 52-28 win over Ole Miss, and Chris Hatfield sees a tricky road spot.
His Florida vs. Missouri prediction and picks make the Under his lead play and use Missouri’s first-half moneyline as a way to account for the emotional hangover without fading the Gators for all 60 minutes.
Ohio State vs. Iowa
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m.
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Rob Paul
Top pick: Ohio State -14.5
Rob Paul calls this a letdown spot for Iowa, which just beat Michigan and has College GameDay in town. His Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction and picks cite the Buckeyes’ efficiency (seventh in offensive success rate) and a trend of Ohio State going 8-0 against the spread in its last eight road games against teams with winning home records.
For individual angles, see our Ohio State vs. Iowa player prop picks, and note Colby Marchio also lands on the Buckeyes in his Week 5 college football hate picks.
Evening kickoffs
BYU vs. TCU
- Kickoff: 7 p.m.
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Nick Galaida
Top pick: BYU team total Under 27.5
Nick Galaida’s BYU vs. TCU prediction and picks zero in on a TCU defense that held UCF to 21 points and 266 yards a week after UCF put up 44.
That is the basis for fading the Cougars’ scoring, and he also likes TCU to cover as a 6.5-point underdog.
Miami vs. Clemson
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m.
- TV: ABC
- Analyst: J.D. Yonke
Top pick: Miami -16.5
J.D. Yonke is willing to lay the points with the No. 4 Hurricanes, up to -17.5. His Miami vs. Clemson prediction and picks point to Miami outgaining opponents by 4.5 yards per play and to Clemson’s 51-10 loss to LSU in its only step up in competition.
Colby Marchio is also on Miami in the Week 5 hate picks.
Texas Tech vs. Colorado
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m.
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Under 50.5
Geoff Clark’s Texas Tech vs. Colorado prediction and picks lead with the Under (he’d play it down to 48.5). Colorado is scoring just 11.3 points per game against Power 4 teams, and both defenses create above-average havoc.
He also likes Colorado to cover, citing reverse line movement.
Washington vs. USC
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m.
- TV: NBC/Peacock
- Analyst: J.D. Yonke
Top pick: Washington +9.5
J.D. Yonke thinks USC is getting too much credit. His Washington vs. USC prediction and picks note the Trojans’ defense ranks 108th in EPA per play while Washington’s ranks 10th, which makes the Huskies a play down to +7.5.
Colby Marchio backs Washington as well in the college football hate picks.
Indiana vs. Rutgers
- Kickoff: 8 p.m.
- TV: BTN
- Analyst: Ed Scimia
Top pick: Under 56.5
Ed Scimia’s Indiana vs. Rutgers prediction and picks note that the Hoosiers have played to totals of 55 or fewer three weeks running and are allowing just 9.8 points per game.
He is on the Under at 54.5 or higher and also likes Rutgers to cover the 24.5-point spread, since Indiana has yet to cover this season.
Late-night kickoffs
Baylor vs. Arizona State
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. (7:30 p.m. local)
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Nick Galaida
Top pick: Under 47.5
Nick Galaida expects a defensive grind. His Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction and picks highlight Baylor quarterback D.J. Lagway, who has completed only 8 of 25 passes for 147 yards under pressure, against a Sun Devils defense built to generate it.
Arizona State -3.5 is his side. Brad Powers also likes Arizona State in his Week 5 CFB best bets.
Cincinnati vs. Arizona
- Kickoff: 11 p.m.
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Arizona -6.5
The Bearcats are 4-0, but Geoff Clark isn’t sold on a first true road test in Tucson.
His Cincinnati vs. Arizona prediction and picks lean on Arizona’s early-down EPA edge (+13.3% vs. +9.8%) and view the Wildcats as tradable up to -7.5, since popular underdog Cincinnati is inflating the market.
San Jose State vs. Hawaii
- Kickoff: Midnight (6 p.m. HT)
- Analyst: J.D. Yonke
Top pick: San Jose State +2.5
J.D. Yonke’s San Jose State vs. Hawaii prediction and picks take the road underdog at any price. The Spartans hold a +0.6 yards-per-play margin to Hawaii’s -1.5, and running back Jabari Bates (413 rushing yards) faces a Rainbow Warriors run defense that ranks 130th in EPA per rush.
San Jose State has won five straight in the series, and the Over is his other lean. The Spartans also appear in our college football underdog picks and upset predictions.
More Week 5 college football picks
Want to build a bigger card? These Covers roundups cover every bet type for the weekend:
- College Football Week 5 Picks Against the Spread
- College Football Week 5 Moneyline Picks
- College Football Over/Under Picks: Week 5
- College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions: Week 5
- College Football Week 5 Hate Picks: Back Those Buckeyes
- College Football Top 25 Predictions Week 5: Watchability Ratings & Best Bets (includes Auburn at Tennessee)
- College Football Predictions Week 5: Brad Powers’ CFB Best Bets
- Brad Powers’ College Football Power Rankings for Week 5
- College Football Player Props: Week 5
- College Football Anytime Touchdown Picks: Week 5
- College Football AI Predictions Week 5: Score Predictions for Every Game
Check the college football weather report and the college football injury report, compare numbers across college football betting sites, and brush up with our guide to betting on college football before finalizing today’s picks.
All of today’s matchups are also on the NCAAF scores and matchups page, and the full pick archive lives in free college football picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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