The Indiana Hoosiers (-24.5) will look to move to 5-0 as they visit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, New Jersey on Saturday night.
The Hoosiers haven't dominated teams in the same way as in 2025 this season, so I like the Under and the Scarlet Knights to cover in my Indiana vs. Rutgers prediction.
Keep reading to see all my free college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 3.
Who will win Indiana vs Rutgers: Rutgers +24.5
There's no real doubt that the Indiana Hoosiers will win this game, but there are plenty of signs that it won't be a blowout. Indiana has yet to cover in its first four games this season, while the Rutgers Scarlet Knights — despite a 1-3 record — have yet to lose by more than 16 points.
It's the Hoosiers offense that has me concerned about Indiana's chances to cover. The Northwestern Wildcats held them to 29 points last week, while the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers gave up only 38 to the Hoosiers the week before.
Despite solid efficiency numbers, Indiana isn't pointing up the points I'd expect, and Rutgers is putting up enough points (33.8 ppg) to think they'll keep this one reasonably close at home. I'm backing Rutgers to cover at +21.5 or more.
COVERS INTEL: Indiana's adjusted EPA per play of +0.31 (11th in the nation) is down significantly from their national best +0.51 figure last year, showing the Hoosiers aren't nearly as dominant as they were in 2025.
TOP PICK
Indiana vs Rutgers Over/Under pick: Under 56.5
While Indiana put up big numbers in their first two games, the offensive production has come down significantly over the past two weeks. It's now been three straight weeks in which the Hoosiers have played to totals of 55 or less.
Rutgers has played some wilder games this season, but I don't expect to see that at home this week. Indiana has allowed just 4.0 yards per play so far in 2026, and only 2.7 yards per rushing attempt against FBS opponents. The Scarlet Knights won't score much against an Indiana squad allowing 9.8 ppg.
I'm backing the Under at totals of 54.5 or higher.
Indiana vs Rutgers combo
Combining a Rutgers cover with the Under makes sense; the fewer total points there are, the less chance Indiana has of turning this game into a blowout.
But for my third leg, I'm going to take Indiana to cover the first quarter spread. The fact that the number is -6.5 makes it reasonably likely that the Hoosiers can cover with an earlier touchdown. And because this is negatively correlated to Rutgers covering overall, we can get a great price on this combo.
Indiana vs Rutgers combo
- Rutgers +24.5
- Under 56.5
- Indiana -6.5 1Q
- Top picks: 2-1, +0.82 units
- Combos: 0-3, -3.00 units
Indiana vs Rutgers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Indiana -24.5 | Rutgers +24.5
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (50%) | Under 56.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Indiana 95% | Rutgers 6%
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Indiana vs Rutgers weather
While daytime rain might leave the field slightly slick, it'll be cloudy and cool with no precipitation expected by game time, making this an ideal night for football.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Indiana vs Rutgers trend to know
Rutgers is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Indiana. Find more college football betting trends for Indiana vs. Rutgers.
How to watch Indiana vs Rutgers
| Location | SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | BTN |
Indiana vs Rutgers latest injuries
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