NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props: Week 4

This column has been profitable in two of the first three weeks, so my Week 4 anytime touchdown scorer picks are not slowing down just because it's October.

I've got a handful of long shots this week, with plenty of tight ends, and some plus-EV running backs with their prices on the move.

These are my favorite NFL picks for Week 4.

Best Week 4 anytime touchdown scorer picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Game	Pick	Probability
IND vs WAS	Keenan Allen	26%
NE vs BUF	Khalil Shakir	28%
TEN vs BAL	Lamar Jackson	30%
JAX vs CIN	Brenton Strange	28%
LAR vs PHI	Tyler Higbee	23%
DAL vs HOU	Jake Ferguson	23%
ARI vs NYG	Michael Wilson	32%
GB vs TB	Bucky Irving	36%
NYJ vs CHI	Braelon Allen	45%
MIA vs MIN	Tai Felton	12%
KC vs LV	Brock Bowers	34%
LAC vs SEA	AJ Barner	27%
DEN vs SF	Jordan Watkins	8%
DET vs CAR	Brycen Tremayne	12%
ATL vs NO	Juwan Johnson	30%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Colts vs Commanders TD pick

Keenan Allen 26.3%

GRADE: 🟢

I got this at 3.8x and would play to 3.3x if Alec Pierce is ruled out.

Keenan Allen saw nine targets last week, including two in the red zone, where he caught his first touchdown of the season. Pierce is still dealing with the heel injury, and Allen could find himself running 70% or more of the routes. He isn't running deep routes, which works well around the goal line with an offense that has seemed to lose its QB rushing ability.

Helping out those short routes are the injuries to the linebackers for the Commanders, who absolutely stuffed the Seattle run game last week. Shane Steichen is 8-2 to the Over as a favorite of more than three points, averaging more than 10 points above the closing total over that stretch. Maybe we see some points here.

Patriots vs Bills TD pick

Khalil Shakir 28.2%

GRADE: 🟡

I'm buying Khalil Shakir at 3.55x with a fair price of 3.2x.

Trevor Lawrence might not have had a huge game last week against the Patriots, but he was perfect in the red zone, going 5-for-5 with three passing TDs, all coming to his wide receivers. Josh Allen has been quite greedy in the red zone with eight carries for five TDs and a 61% run rate inside the 20.

With Allen's health already showing some concern after he picked up a knee injury late in Week 3, and turnovers being an issue, some more passing in tight could go a long way in the Bills' play calling. This season, Shakir has the most red-zone targets of all the Buffalo pass catchers and played the most snaps among the wide receivers in Week 3 at 71%.

He hasn't looked great this year, but the snaps, red-zone usage, and hopeful change in RZ philosophy have me reaching here at this long price when DJ Moore is too short at 2.5x.

Titans vs Ravens TD pick

Lamar Jackson 30.5%

GRADE: 🟢

This is the longest Lamar Jackson has been for a TD since Week 1. He was 2.9x last week and 2.85x in Week 2, and I think anything at 3x or better is a buy this week vs. the Titans.

The Baltimore team total sits at 27.5, and this might seem like a spot where Derrick Henry gets all the goal-line work, but the Ravens could be down to their No. 4 option at center, which is first-round guard Olaivavega Ioane. Tackle Ronnie Stanley and starting guard John Simpson also opened their practice windows in limited fashion.

There could be some issues for a team that is running the ball 33% in the red zone. The Titans actually rank 11th in red-zone defense, and there could be a few more scrambles or designed runs inside the 20 on Sunday than expected.

Jaguars vs Bengals TD pick

Brenton Strange  27.3%

GRADE: 🟡

I got this at 3.66x and would play to 3.4x. The Bengals are a tight-end funnel. No team gives up more yards to opposing tight ends than Cincinnati at 92 yards per game, which is a full 10-plus yards more than the next team. Having both starting safeties limited to start the week only makes this spot for Brenton Strange even better.

The No. 1 tight end had five targets last week, is playing 75% of the snaps (second among pass catchers), and is running 74% of the routes. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Jacksonville offense, but Strange has a red-zone role, and the price makes him my favorite TD pick in this game, which could see both sides score 25-plus points.

Rams vs Eagles TD pick

Tyler Higbee 23.2%

GRADE: 🟢

I got this at 4.3x, and if both Terrance Ferguson and Colby Parkinson sit, this should have a fair price of 3.5x.

The Rams use heavy tight-end sets at one of the highest rates in football, and even if Puka Nacua suits up, Tyler Higbee will have a ton of snaps. He took advantage of those snaps last week, seeing nine targets and leading the team with eight receptions and a score. He also has the same number of red-zone targets as Davante Adams.

The Rams' PROE is climbing after a run-heavy game in Australia, and a negative game script could have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball 40-plus times again this week. I'm getting on this early, as Ferguson is likely out and Parkinson isn't practicing early in the week. Davis Allen to score at 9x is also worth a sniff.

Cowboys vs Texans TD pick

Jake Ferguson 23.2%

GRADE: 🟢

I have hit the Jake Ferguson TD in back-to-back weeks. One would think it's time to bail, but I'm getting 4.3x this week indoors vs. the Texans after I was getting 3.7x last week and 3.4x in Week 2. How is this TD price going the other way?

I understand it's the Texans, and the projected team total for the Cowboys is a little lower this week, but you can't run against the Texans, and their passing defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in EPA/dropback.

Last week, I said the Ferguson TD fair price was around 3.4x, and I stand by that. Ferguson has more red-zone targets than CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

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Cardinals vs Giants TD pick

Michael Wilson 32.5%

GRADE: 🟡

I have this at 3.08x, with Michael Wilson's TD at a fair price of 2.7x after a 17-target Week 3. His target share has been on the rise, from 19% in Week 1 to 27% in Week 2 and then 34% last week.

He is getting fed, and that volume comes in a game against a New York defense that is still thin in the secondary and ranks near the bottom of the league in EPA/dropback.

It's tough to find a WR1 at longer than 2.8x, especially one in a game where Arizona can score and might be able to win the time-of-possession battle against a Giants offense likely being run by Jameis Winston.

It's a play on the price and volume.

Packers vs Buccaneers TD pick

Bucky Irving 35.7%

GRADE: 🟡

The Buccaneers' offense has a massive downgrade with undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels under center, but that is certainly priced into this TD prop. Bucky Irving was as short as 56% just two weeks ago, but this still seems 5% too long against a bad Packers team that can't run the ball or stop it.

Irving took some snaps off last week because of a back issue but has been fine at practice this week. If the rookie gets into the red zone, Irving will be leaned on heavily, and the Packers are giving up 1.3 rushing TDs to opposing RBs, which is the highest rate in football.

Jets vs Bears TD pick

Braelon Allen 45.5%

GRADE: 🟡

I liked Braelon Allen with Breece Hall in the lineup. Now that Hall is out, Allen will have next to zero competition for work and should have all the red-zone opportunities.

Allen already had six of the Jets' 14 running back red-zone opportunities this year, while Isaiah Davis has played zero offensive snaps this season and 56 on special teams. Even last year, the backup had just 43 carries in 16 games.

I'm not sold on this Chicago defense that has allowed just 16 points over the last two weeks after allowing 37 to Carolina in the opener. If he is an 80/20 back, this price should be closer to 50/50.

Dolphins vs Vikings TD pick

Tai Felton 12%

GRADE: 🟢

THE BLITZ has this at a fair price of 6x, and if Justin Jefferson sits out, this should shorten up.

Tai Felton would be the WR3 if Jefferson sits after taking 90% of the snaps following Jefferson's injury. He saw two targets on 19 routes. The Dolphins are going to be more of a joke than usual this week without De'Von Achane, and Minnesota could be dealing with short fields all game.

This is my long shot of the week.

Chiefs vs Raiders TD pick

Brock Bowers 34%

GRADE: 🟡

I got this at 2.05x, and Brock Bowers should be in that 2.6x range in a tough matchup.

It's an indoor home game, which helps, but Bowers also saw 13 targets last week (43% target share) and had double-digit receptions and a score. He has a 92% route share on the season, and his monstrous 43.3% target share leads all of football.

I don't care who the home matchup is against. If I'm getting 2.7x or better with this target share, I'm saying yes every week. Kansas City has been an average defense against the position this year.

Chargers vs Seahawks TD pick

AJ Barner 26.5%

GRADE: 🟢

AJ Barner has four TDs over his last 10 games and was as short as 3.1x in the playoffs last year. Now that the Seahawks can't run the ball, Barner's scoring role is better than it was in the postseason.

He leads all Seahawks with an 85% snap share on the season, runs the second-most routes (71%), and has a tush-push role on the goal line and in short yardage, which might be needed this week after the running backs gained one yard on three RZ carries last week. The injuries to Jadarian Price (LP) and George Holani (LP) only help.

Broncos vs 49ers TD pick

Jordan Watkins 8%

GRADE: 🟢

Okay, one more long shot. Mike Evans is banged up, and Jordan Watkins looked good with two receptions of 26+ yards last week against the Cardinals.

He could see a bump in usage this week if Evans sits (DNP on Wednesday). He has an MVP quarterback getting him the ball and likely won't have to see Patrick Surtain or Riley Moss, who is the corner you test in this Denver defense because he takes a lot of penalties. He was targeted on two of his eight routes.

The fair price for this half-unit doozy is closer to 9x and is the best +EV TD of this game per the projections.

Lions vs Panthers TD pick

Brycen Tremayne 11.8%

GRADE: 🟢

Jalen Coker was practicing on the side at practice on Thursday after exiting Week 3, and Xavier Legette was a DNP. The Panthers are thin at wide receiver against one of the worst pass defenses in football.

The Lions rank 29th in EPA/dropback and success rate, and the injuries to Kerby Joseph (out), Brian Branch (out), and DJ Reed (questionable) only make this more of a pass funnel.

Brycen Tremayne is giving great value at his 8.5x price, which should be closer to 5x. He played 81% of the snaps last week and ran 76% of the routes while getting six targets for 83 yards. If Coker and Legette miss out, this could realistically shorten up to 30%.

Falcons vs Saints TD pick

Juwan Johnson 30.3%

GRADE: 🟡

I got this at 3.3x and have this at 3x. Juwan Johnson got 20% of the targets in a 40+ dropback outing last night, bringing in all eight of his targets and scoring twice. He has six red-zone targets for three TDs this year and ranks second at the position in targets inside the 20.

Travis Etienne is injured, which could boost the passing volume, and the Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league in TDs allowed to tight ends. Johnson has become the No. 2 pass option in an offense that ranks third in passing yards per game.

My weekly NFL TD props column is 14-30 this season for +8.75 units.

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