Saturday brings four Divisional Series Game 1 matchups that should keep us entertained all day long.
My MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks are a solid mix of slight favorites and big underdogs, including the San Diego Padres as 34% underdogs to upset the Milwaukee Brewers.
MLB moneyline picks for Oct. 3
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
White Sox
Guardians
Braves
Dodgers
Yankees
Rays
Padres
BrewersPrices courtesy of Polymarket as of Oct. 2.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Oct. 3
White Sox vs Guardians: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 58%
The Cleveland Guardians at -141 is right in that sweet spot where the price makes sense.
The Guardians closed out the year locked in at the plate. A 16.2% strikeout rate paired with a .202 ISO over the final two weeks tells you they’re making loud contact and not beating themselves.
The Chicago White Sox' bats showed life, but striking out a quarter of the time and facing Parker Messick alongside a bullpen posting a 3.55 SIERA and holding hitters to a .183 average over their last 14 days is a bad recipe.
Cleveland gets it done at home up to 65%.
Braves vs Dodgers: Braves
Braves win probability: 36%
If you think I’m laying this much juice on the Los Angeles Dodgers in an October Game 1, you haven't been paying attention.
The Dodgers are a powerhouse, sure, and their bullpen numbers look like a video game (2.19 SIERA), but this is postseason baseball.
The Atlanta Braves are pure value. The market has the Braves pegged at just a 36% shot, completely overlooking that their bullpen walked only 5.8% of hitters down the stretch with a 1.05 WHIP.
When you can grab a dangerous underdog at this price, take the price every day; it's playable at 45%.
Yankees vs Rays: Rays
Rays win probability: 55%
The Tampa Bay Rays lineup looked like it was swinging underwater to end the season (79 wRC+), but I’m buying their arms all day.
Drew Rasmussen gets the call, and his 9.10 strikeouts per nine frames means he knows how to keep the New York Yankees lineup off balance.
The Yankees are whiffing at a 25.7% clip with a sub-.300 OBP, and once Rasmussen hands the ball over, Tampa’s pen is lights out (3.13 SIERA, 27.6% K%).
Meanwhile, New York’s relievers walked into October leaking oil with a 1.51 WHIP. Pitching controls October, and the Rays are at a playable number up to 60%.
Padres vs Brewers: Padres
Padres win probability: 34%
The Milwaukee Brewers at 66% is an automatic pass for me. Jacob Misiorowski is filthy on the bump, but who is scoring runs for this team?
The Brewers limped into October with an ugly 94 wRC+, no power (.110 ISO), and a 27.2% strikeout rate. On the flip side, the San Diego Padres enter as the hottest-hitting team on the planet, slashing .299/.358/.483 with a 134 wRC+.
The Padres’ pen has command issues, but getting the best offense on the entire board at a juicy 34% probability against a team that struggles to hit is an absolute gift.
Take San Diego to 45%.
Check out Neil Parker's Padres vs. Brewers predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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