Baylor faces its first true road test of the season this weekend when it travels to Mountain America Stadium for a Big 12 showdown with Arizona State.
My Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction and college football picks have the Sun Devils prevailing in a low-scoring game.
Kickoff is set for Saturday, Oct. 3 at 7:30 p.m. ET in Tempe, Arizona, with the game airing on ESPN.
Who will win Baylor vs Arizona State: Arizona State -3.5
Playable to 54%.
D.J. Lagway has not played well early this season, and he may not be completely healthy heading into this Week 5 matchup against a strong Arizona State defense. Lagway's struggles have been amplified when under pressure in 2026, completing only 8 of 25 pass attempts for 147 yards.
Arizona State generated a 35.5% defensive pressure rate against Texas A&M on the road in Week 2 and held Kansas quarterback Isaiah Marshall to 1-for-7 passing when under duress in Week 3.
The Sun Devils are at home and coming off a bye, with a defense built to exploit Lagway's biggest vulnerability. If Arizona State's offense can play a relatively clean game, the outcome of this matchup shouldn't be in question late in the fourth quarter.
COVERS INTEL: Baylor leads the Big 12 in sacks and ranks second in the conference in tackles for loss. 
TOP PICK
Baylor vs Arizona State Over/Under pick: Under 47.5
Playable to 48%.
D.J. Lagway sustained an ankle injury in the season opener, forcing him to miss two games. He threw for only 221 yards in his return last weekend against an underwhelming Colorado defense. Lagway has always been an erratic signal-caller, evidenced by his 23 interceptions in two years at Florida. Those struggles appear to have followed him to Baylor, with the ankle injury only complicating his path to success.
Arizona State has offensive concerns, too. RG Wade Helton was carted off the field in Week 2 and will remain out this weekend. His absence further weakens an offensive line that was already struggling.
In Week 3 against Kansas, Arizona State's offense managed only 13 first downs and 228 yards of total offense. Don't expect a shootout between these teams on Saturday.
Baylor vs Arizona State combo
Playable to 33%.
Arizona State doesn't have the offensive firepower or protection up front to compete in a shootout this weekend. The Sun Devils will need their defense to play well to give them a chance to win, making this a naturally correlated combo.
Baylor vs Arizona State combo
- Arizona State moneyline
- Under 47.5
- Top picks: 4-1, +2.80 units
- Combos: 4-3, +4.53 units
Baylor vs Arizona State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Baylor +3.5 | Arizona State -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (55%) | Under 47.5 (46%)
- Moneyline: Baylor 39% | Arizona State 63%
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Baylor vs Arizona State weather
The temperature is forecast to be 86 degrees with minimal wind and no chance of precipitation on Saturday.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Baylor vs Arizona State trend to know
Arizona State has hit the Game Total Under in four of its last six home games (+1.80 units / 27% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Baylor vs. Arizona State.
How to watch Baylor vs Arizona State
| Location | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Baylor vs Arizona State latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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