The Green Bay Packers head into their Week 4 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 3.5-point favorite, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.
With Baker Mayfield sidelined for a few weeks, my Packers vs. Buccaneers predictions confidently back the visitors to hand Tampa Bay another loss.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 4.
TOP Pick
Packers vs Buccaneers prediction: Packers -3.5
Play to 55%.
The Green Bay Packers have plenty to clean up after a concerning 35-14 defeat to Atlanta, but this feels like a strong opportunity to respond with extra time to prepare.
The biggest variable is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' quarterback situation. Baker Mayfield is sidelined for an extended stretch, leaving rookie Jalon Daniels in line to take over the offense. There’s obviously a lot of uncertainty with Daniels, but asking a rookie quarterback to immediately operate at Mayfield’s level is a difficult task.
Green Bay has had its own offensive inconsistencies, but Jordan Love gives the Packers the far more proven option under center.
With Tampa Bay already 0-3 and now dealing with major uncertainty at quarterback, I like Green Bay to bounce back and cover -3.5.
COVERS INTEL: Tampa Bay is 0-3 against the spread this season, failing to cover in each of its first three games.
Packers vs Buccaneers combo
I expect the Packers to comfortably win here, but Emeka Egbuka will remain a factor for Tampa, even with Daniels throwing to him.
The wide-out remains the Bucs' top target, reeling in a team-high 13 receptions for 141 yards through three weeks. He also has a team-best 20 targets. Egbuka has at least three receptions in every game so far, and he had five catches in Week 3.
Matthew Golden has emerged as an important target for Love in Year 2. He ranks second on Green Bay behind only Christian Watson with 15 catches on 30 targets.
He's cashed the Over in every contest so far, and Golden led the way last week with five grabs for 100 yards. While his 50% reception rate leaves room for improvement, an average of 10 targets per game makes clearing 4.5 catches very manageable.
Packers vs Buccaneers combo
- Packers -3.5
- Emeka Egbuka Over 3.5 receptions
- Matthew Golden Over 4.5 receptions
Packers vs Buccaneers touchdown scorer: Christian Watson
Play to 45%.
Watson is Love's go-to man in the red zone. He already has six red-zone targets, accounting for 42.9% of Green Bay's red-zone pass attempts, and three of his four touchdowns this season have come inside the 20.
The wideout has also caught three touchdown passes from inside the 10-yard line. Tampa Bay has been strong in the red zone through three weeks, allowing touchdowns on just 37.5% of opposing trips. However, Watson’s usage is difficult to ignore, and his size and physicality can create problems for the Bucs secondary.
- Top picks: 1-2, +0.08 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.00 units
Packers vs Buccaneers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Packers -3.5 | Buccaneers +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 (55%) | Under 37.5 (46%)
- Moneyline: Packers 62% | Buccaneers 38%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Packers vs Buccaneers weather
Conditions at Raymond James Stadium could be a factor Sunday, with rain in the forecast throughout the afternoon and precipitation chances hovering around 50-60%. Temperatures will sit in the mid-to-upper 80s with plenty of humidity, while winds should remain fairly manageable at around 8-10 mph. The biggest concern will be the potential for wet conditions affecting footing and ball security.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Packers vs Buccaneers trend to know
The Packers have hit the Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Packers vs Buccaneers
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Packers vs Buccaneers latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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