NFL Week 4 showcases just the eighth edition of this Texas-sized rivalry between the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans.
As they say, everything is bigger in the Lone Star State, including the desperation. Houston lugs a 0-3 record, laying -3.5 inside NRG Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
My Cowboys vs. Texans prediction crunches the numbers for this non-conference contest, giving you the best NFL picks for Oct. 1.
Cowboys vs Texans prediction: Over 47.5
The Houston Texans defense hasn’t looked right to start the season and could look very different in Week 4, considering all the injuries.
Houston is hurting with several starters either out or questionable, including losing DT Mario Edwards Jr. for the rest of the season.
The Texans’ vaunted front isn’t cooking up the same pass pressure as previous years and will have a tough time making Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott uncomfortable.
Prescott is another elite passer set to pick on Houston, after Josh Allen and Joe Burrow had their fun. Dallas' downfield attack is Top 3 in EPA and success rate per dropback.
That pushes C.J. Stroud to pass more, which isn’t a bad thing. Stroud faces a dreadful Cowboys secondary — also missing bodies — and might have WR1 Nico Collins back in action.
I was leaning Under earlier in the week, but this total hasn’t ticked up, and the fast track at NRG Stadium helps produce plenty of points.
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Cowboys vs Texans combo
Both defenses have injuries up and down the depth chart, which leaves Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud to sling it in a potential Texas shootout.
Tight end Jake Ferguson has scored three touchdowns in the past two games for Dallas as his role in the receiving game expands. His TD probabilities sit as high as 40%, yet he’s trading lower and promising a nice return for another touchdown in Week 4.
Let’s get more from Ferguson. The Texans stink versus TEs and are down countless bodies at linebacker. Ferguson’s targets are ticking up, and his projections call for as many as 38 receiving yards on Sunday.
Cowboys vs Texans combo
- Over 47.5
- Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown
- Jake Ferguson 25+ receiving yards
TOP PICK
Cowboys vs Texans player prop: Jake Ferguson 25+ receiving yards
Ferguson has seen his involvement in the Cowboys’ passing attack tick up the past two games, drawing a total of nine passes for seven receptions and a collective 66 yards.
He’s run 82 routes on 128 total snaps, garnering a 10.9% target share through three games, which is pretty good when you consider CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are on the field.
Ferguson faces a Houston defense that has been bullied by tight ends this season. The Texans have watched rival TEs catch 18 of 21 pass attempts for 213 yards – fourth most in the NFL.
Houston’s linebacking corps is thin, and its top coverage LBs — Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To'oTo'o, and Jake Hansen — are either injured or out in Week 4.
Projections for Ferguson are very positive, ranging from 25 yards to a ceiling of 38 yards. My number shakes out to 31+ from the Dallas TE.
COVERS INTEL: Houston allows 11.8 yards per reception to rival tight ends and ranks 26th in Defensive DVOA versus TEs at FTN.
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Cowboys vs Texans odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Cowboys +3.5 | Texans -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (55%) | Under 47.5 (46%)
- Moneyline: Cowboys 41% | Texans 60%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
- Top picks: 7-2, +4.22 units
- Combos: 0-9, -9.00 units
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Cowboys vs Texans weather
It’s always perfect inside NRG Stadium’s climate-controlled conditions.
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Cowboys vs Texans trend to know
Dallas has gone 16-10 Over/Under (61.5% Overs) as a road underdog since 2020. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Texans.
How to watch Cowboys vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Cowboys vs Texans latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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