After a very profitable Week 4, we went 2-1 straight up, with Michigan State being the only team to not only lose, but also fail to cover. Regardless, we came out green!
The Week 5 college football underdog picks are ready to run it back! I found three underdogs with some bite on this week’s slate, and I believe all three have a legitimate chance at pulling off an upset.
Before you dive in, check out all of our college football picks for Week 5 action.
CFB Week 5 underdog picks
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Northwestern (vs. Penn State)
Some people will view this Friday night matchup as a big “get-right spot” for the Penn State Nittany Lions, following their loss to Wisconsin last week as a 10.5-point favorite. However, others will see this as an all-time hype spot for the hometown team unveiling its brand-new $875 million stadium. Brand-new Ryan Field should bring every die-hard fan and passionate alum out for this Friday night Big Ten brawl.
Plus, these Northwestern Wildcats are no slouches. They've been a covering machine, starting the season 2-1 straight up while going 3-0 against the spread. Northwestern has looked pretty strong out of the gate. So far this season, the Wildcats have taken down South Dakota State 34-18 and Colorado 41-7 before losing to No. 6 Indiana 29-23 this past week.
Against No. 6 Indiana, the Wildcats managed to put up more than 320 total yards, averaging 5.7 yards per play while recording 21 first downs. Their biggest issue was moving the ball on the ground, as they recorded just 32 rushing yards. Wisconsin was able to rush for 120 yards last week. If Northwestern can establish the run, it should be able to keep this game close.
This matchup should set the tone for the weekend, and Geoff Clark makes the case for the favorite with his Penn State vs. Northwestern prediction.
San Jose State (vs. Hawaii)
Not only are the early-season miles going to catch up to the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, but they also don’t look as great as they were hyped up to be in the preseason. Plus, they have to pack right back up after this matchup and head to Arizona to take on Arizona State. If they pull out the win here, we run it back against Arizona State, which I likely will either way. That's a ton of miles in three weeks.
The Rainbow Warriors return to the island following their 27-10 loss to Wyoming, where they entered Laramie as a short road favorite. Meanwhile, the San Jose State Spartans are coming off a 26-10 loss to Fresno State at home.
Despite that loss to Fresno State, this San Jose State team has caught my attention ever since it played USC extremely well in Week 0. Its star quarterback, Luke Weaver, threw for over 230 yards, completed 65.6% of his attempts, and threw for two touchdowns in that 42-26 loss.
With the Rainbow Warriors allowing 8.0 yards per pass while giving up the 62nd-most passing yards per game, Weaver should be able to move the ball with ease against this subpar Hawaii defense, which is also 104th in rushing yards allowed per game.
And let’s not forget, the best team they’ve played was Stanford. Our JD Yonke has the Spartans to cover with his San Jose State vs. Hawaii prediction, if the outright win feels too bold.
Florida State (vs. Virginia)
Virginia has been cruising down Easy Street, opening the season against some very underwhelming competition. The Cavaliers have played NC State, which has been very unimpressive this season, Norfolk State, West Virginia, and Delaware. They lost to West Virginia (38-27) as 11.5-point favorites in Week 3.
Now, Virginia has to head into Tough-ville, as I like to call it when a team is coming off a smooth, easy ride to open the season or through its recent schedule. The Cavaliers are drawing a Florida State team that has at least left campus this season and faced some solid competition, including Alabama. The Seminoles played the Crimson Tide well on the road but ultimately lost 50-36.
If Florida State doesn't turn the ball over three times, with two leading directly to a field goal or touchdown and the final turnover coming at the end of the game, the Seminoles could have made that 14-point game far more interesting.
The Seminoles are an intriguing look this week based on the early tests they've faced. At the very least, Florida State should be able to keep this close.
Week 5 underdog combo
Northwestern San Jose State Florida State
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