Michigan-Minnesota gives us a pretty balanced computer board, with the model finding four playable angles on each side of the matchup.
Our Michigan vs. Minnesota computer picks lean heavily toward the Over on skill-position yardage, while Minnesota quarterback Drake Lindsey is the lone Under on the card.
Here are the eight projections that stand out most from our latest college football picks.
Michigan vs Minnesota computer picks
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 Michigan |
 Minnesota |
|---|---|
| Jordan Marshall o46.5 rushing yards 54% |
Drake Lindsey u214.5 passing yards 53% |
| Andrew Marsh o59.5 receiving yards 54% |
Darius Taylor o49.5 rushing yards 53% |
| JJ Buchanan o71.5 receiving yards 55% |
Javon Tracy o49.5 receiving yards 52% |
| Jordan Marshall o3.5 receiving yards 53% |
TJ Thomas o10.5 receiving yards 51% |
Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Michigan computer picks
Jordan Marshall Over 46.5 rushing yards
Projection: 54.84 yards
The model puts Marshall at 54.84 rushing yards, giving us more than eight yards of cushion over this number. There is a football case behind it, too. Michigan is still leaning on its ground game while Bryce Underwood settles in, and Minnesota has allowed 97.8 rushing yards per game. Marshall does not need a monster workload here; 10-12 useful carries with one chunk run would put this Over in very good shape.
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Andrew Marsh Over 57.5 receiving yards
Projection: 73.91 yards
Marsh owns one of the strongest gaps on the board, with a 73.91-yard projection against a line of 57.5. The matchup helps because he is Michigan's primary outside receiver, while Minnesota's defense has been much stingier against the run than through the air. If the Wolverines are forced to create explosives outside, Marsh is the obvious candidate. One or two intermediate gains could move him quickly toward this number.
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JJ Buchanan Over 69.5 receiving yards
Projection: 85.13 yards
The computer has Buchanan at 85.13 yards, nearly 16 yards clear of this 69.5 total. He works primarily from the slot, which gives Michigan an easier way to attack Minnesota underneath and between the linebackers rather than forcing everything outside. That role can create steady volume even if the offense is not especially explosive. The number is high, but the model is pricing Buchanan more like an 80-plus-yard receiver in this spot.
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Jordan Marshall Over 3.5 receiving yards
Projection: 6.62 yards
This is less about Marshall becoming a real receiving weapon and more about how tiny the threshold is. The model projects 6.62 yards, almost double the line, and Michigan can easily manufacture this with a checkdown or designed backfield touch. Minnesota's front has been solid against the run, so short throws to a running back are a natural extension of the ground game. One clean reception could be enough.
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Minnesota computer picks
Drake Lindsey Under 214.5 passing yards
Projection: 198.59 yards
Lindsey has been efficient this season, but this is a significant step up in defensive quality. Michigan enters with a top 25 defense against both the run and pass, and its front can create pressure without having to sell out. That matters against a Minnesota offense built around balance rather than pure dropback volume. The model lands at 198.59 yards, and a slower, possession-heavy game would make 215 difficult to reach.
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Darius Taylor Over 46.5 rushing yards
Projection: 56.05 yards
Taylor's season efficiency has been modest, but this number is asking for less than 50 yards and Minnesota still wants to establish the run. The Gophers are using Taylor and TJ Thomas as a one-two backfield, which keeps both fresh and gives Taylor a clear path to double-digit carries. The model has him at 56.05 yards, so we do not need a breakout game — just steady usage and four-to-five yards per touch.
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Javon Tracy Over 48.5 receiving yards
Projection: 61.40 yards
Tracy is Minnesota's starting slot receiver, and that role matters against a Michigan defense that is strongest when it can challenge outside receivers in man coverage. The easiest throws for Lindsey may come underneath and inside, where Tracy can stack short catches rather than relying on one deep ball. The model projects 61.40 yards, nearly 13 above the market, and the game script could push Minnesota toward more short-area passing.
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TJ Thomas Over 10.5 receiving yards
Projection: 15.19 yards
Thomas only needs 11 yards, and his backfield role gives him several ways to get there. Minnesota can use him as a change-of-pace back, and against Michigan's aggressive front, checkdowns and screens are a logical way to slow the rush. The model projects 15.19 yards, so this is not asking for real receiving volume. Two short catches — or one well-blocked screen — could be enough to cash it.
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