Last week’s totals card went 2-1, but that barely tells the story.
Every single game was decided by the hook. One half-point saved us, one half-point burned us, and all three reminded us just how vicious these markets can be. So we’re coming back looking for cleaner edges.
This week’s college football Over/Under picks target three very different setups: one SEC game built for explosives, one Big 12 matchup where both offenses can stress a weakness, and one Big Ten grinder that has rock fight written all over it.
For more Week 5 angles, check out all of our college football picks.
Week 5 college football Over/Under picks
Alabama vs 
Mississippi State
UCF vs 
Houston
Michigan State vs 
WisconsinPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 5 CFB Over/Under picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
Alabama vs Mississippi State: Over 59.5
Mississippi State's offense is tailor-made to attack Alabama's biggest weakness. Kamario Taylor leads an explosive passing attack averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, while the Tide rank 128th at preventing 20-plus-yard completions.
Alabama should contribute plenty, too: Keelon Russell is averaging more than 10 yards per attempt, and the Tide rank fourth nationally in points per scoring opportunity.
Both quarterbacks should create chunk plays, and neither offense needs many possessions to turn this into a track meet.
UCF vs Houston: Over 51.5
Houston should do its share of the heavy lifting behind a passing attack that ranks 10th in EPA and first nationally on third downs. The key to the Over, though, is UCF finishing the drives it does generate.
The Knights rank 21st in points per scoring opportunity, while Houston's defense sits 129th at preventing points once opponents cross the 40.
UCF doesn't need to trade touchdowns all afternoon. If the Knights contribute 20-plus points, Houston's offense can take care of the rest.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin: Under 43.5
Michigan State's offense runs directly into Wisconsin's best traits.
The Spartans rank 125th on passing downs, 119th in pass explosiveness, and 128th in yards per rush, while the Badgers rank seventh, fifth, and 42nd defensively in those categories.
Wisconsin isn't exactly built to turn this into a shootout either, making long possessions and stalled drives the likely script. Camp Randall has averaged just 39.6 combined points across the tracked sample, which fits this matchup almost perfectly.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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