The 107th meeting of one of college football's oldest rivalries is set for Saturday, Oct. 3, at noon ET on FOX, with Michigan and Minnesota squaring off at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
The Wolverines are 5.5-point favorites, and my Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction and college football picks expect the maize and blue to retain the Little Brown Jug after winning the last six matchups.
TOP PICK
Who will win Michigan vs Minnesota: Michigan -5.5
The Michigan vs. Minnesota rivalry has been an ugly one for the Golden Gophers.
Minnesota has won the Little Brown Jug just four times since 1968, while Michigan has taken it home on 44 different occasions (Michigan has covered in nine of the last 12 matchups).
And though the Wolverines are coming off a tough loss to Iowa, I like them to cover -5.5 or better because of their defense. Michigan's stop unit ranks eighth in EPA per rush, 24th in EPA per pass, and 16th in available yards percentage (33.6%).
Minnesota's inability to run the ball (103rd in EPA per rush) will put a lot on quarterback Drake Lindsey's plate, and his lack of mobility could be an issue against the Wolverines.
Michigan's pass rush (assuming Dom Nichols and John Henry Daley play) is one of the best in the country, already boasting 12 sacks and 71 pressures.
COVERS INTEL: Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck is 0-4 with the Little Brown Jug on the line and 1-3 ATS in those matchups, losing by an average score of 40.2 to 17.
Michigan vs Minnesota Over/Under pick: Under 43.5
The Little Brown Jug game has hit the Over nine straight times, but Michigan's style of play should help break the trend, though I would only play the Under at 42.5 or better.
The Wolverines have yet to score more than 19 points in a Power Four game this season, and they've yet to give up more than 20 points in any of their games, allowing just 14.8 ppg.
Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country, ranked No. 9 by SP+, but Minnesota has a pretty ferocious defense too. The Golden Gophers rank sixth nationally in havoc rate (23.7%) and should force QB Bryce Underwood into mistakes (his 5.4% turnover-worthy play rate is among the highest in the country).
I predict the Wolverines to win 23-17.
Michigan vs Minnesota combo
Minnesota has long struggled to win the Little Brown Jug, and nothing has changed since Fleck took over. The Golden Gophers have kept the game within 20 points just once in the four matchups under Fleck.
With both defenses ranking in the top 35 in net EPA per play, I'm expecting a slow, grind-it-out first half before Michigan pulls away late. Look for Wolverines wide receiver JJ Buchanan to be the X-factor.
While this is Kyle Whittingham's first time in the rivalry, he's no stranger to winning rivalry games. As Utah's head coach, Whittingham went 11-6 in the Holy War against BYU.
Michigan vs Minnesota combo
- Michigan -5.5
- Under 43.5
- First-half Under 21.5
- Top picks: 10-6, +2.88 units
- Combos: 4-12, -1.14 units
Michigan vs Minnesota odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Michigan -5.5 | Minnesota +5.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (50%) | Under 43.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Michigan 66% | Minnesota 34%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
Michigan vs Minnesota weather
Saturday in Minneapolis is expected to be mild, with temperatures around 60°F at kickoff and southerly winds of 10-15 mph. The weather should have no impact on this year's contest.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Michigan vs Minnesota trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in Minnesota's last eight home games. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs. Minnesota.
How to watch Michigan vs Minnesota
| Location | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Michigan vs Minnesota latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
