There will be no love lost on Saturday when Michigan and Minnesota square off for the Little Brown Jug.
My Michigan vs. Minnesota prop picks key on a few areas where the market may be off, including a favorable matchup for JJ Buchanan against this Golden Gophers secondary.
Here are my college football picks and Michigan vs. Minnesota predictions as these teams meet on Oct. 3 at noon ET live on FOX.
Best Michigan vs Minnesota props
Prop pick #1: Darius Taylor Under 49.5 rushing yards
Darius Taylor enters this game averaging just 3.0 yards per carry for the Minnesota Golden Gophers and only 2.53 yards after contact.
Considering his season-high rushing total of 56 yards came against Eastern Illinois on 14 carries, I see very little path to him reaching 50 against this Michigan Wolverines defense.
This unit ranks Top 20 nationally in EPA per rush (11th), early-down EPA per play (18th), and explosive run rate (13th).
Minnesota ranks 104th in rushing success rate and 113th in line yards, and Taylor's inability to consistently create extra yardage on his own makes this a strong Under play. I'd back it to 57%.
Prop pick #2: JJ Buchanan Over 74.5 receiving yards
JJ Buchanan's 16.4-yard average depth of target is more than seven yards deeper than Andrew Marsh's. While Marsh is better at creating after the catch, Buchanan is getting downfield primarily from the slot and consistently stressing secondaries.
That's why I prefer Buchanan's total, especially with it sitting only 15 yards above Marsh's number. The Golden Gophers rank in the 30th percentile in explosive pass plays allowed, with 13 of 64 completions against them going for 20-plus yards.
Buchanan has topped 90 receiving yards in three of four games. With Minnesota allowing 94.0 yards after the catch per game, he should have opportunities to create enough chunk plays to clear this number.
I'll play this up to 54%.
Prop pick #3: Jalen Smith Under 34.5 receiving yards
Moving the ball is going to be difficult for this Minnesota offense, and Jalen Smith could struggle to clear 30 receiving yards.
He's done so just once this season, going for 51 against Mississippi State. But that game also saw him run 46 routes.
In his other three games, Smith ran 24 routes or fewer, and he's averaging just 1.07 yards per route this season.
The Wolverines defense ranks 11th in passing success rate and 12th in yards per dropback.
Smith's inability to generate big plays makes him a strong fade candidate in this matchup.
I'm playing this one to 53%.
- Prop picks: 5-3, +1.83 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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