Perhaps the biggest game on the Week 5 college football slate sees Alabama pay a visit to Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State, with my college football against the spread picks expecting the Bulldogs to put up a worthy fight.
My college football picks are otherwise centered around the top dogs doing what they do best: win big.
Week 5 college football picks against the spread
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Penn State vs  Northwestern |
-2.5 |
 Notre Dame vs  North Carolina |
-21.5 |
 Alabama vs  Mississippi State |
+6.5 |
 Vanderbilt vs  Georgia |
-24.5 |
 Ohio State vs  Iowa |
-13.5 |
 Florida vs  Missouri |
-5.5 |
 Washington vs  USC |
-9.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 5 CFB ATS picks
Penn State (-2.5) vs. Northwestern: Penn State -2.5
Even if Northwestern did push Indiana, the Hoosiers still put up 472 yards of offense on 6.8 yards per play and went 9-for-15 on third down, and I'm not giving up on Penn State just yet after blowing its 20-10 lead late to Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions will lean on their defense and find enough rhythm offensively to bet back in the win column.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina: Notre Dame -21.5
Notre Dame's defense has been a tough nut to crack through four games. The Irish lead the nation in scoring defense (8.3 ppg), total defense (199.3 ypg), and opponent yards per play (3.4), so even if this rushing attack isn't putting up gaudy numbers just yet, they're still able to beat overmatched opponents by massive margins. UNC will be no different.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State: Mississippi State +6.5
For as good as Keelon Russell has looked for Alabama, Kamario Taylor (his 14 passing touchdowns lead the nation) has pure playmaking ability that puts him in a different tier entirely. He has the ability to punish a Tide defense that's allowed 7.8 yards per attempt (88th) and is more forgiving than their dominant score lines would suggest.
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia (-24.5): Georgia -24.5
Georgia checks damn near every box and is coming off two dominant SEC wins in which it allowed 82 combined rushing yards. Vandy's offense is limited as is, ranking 104th in yards per carry and 72nd in yards per attempt, and true freshman Jared Curtis has thrown three interceptions over his last two games. He's in for quite a fun day at Sanford Stadium.
Ohio State (-13.5) vs. Iowa: Ohio State -13.5
I'd stay away from the Buckeyes if this gets to -14 or beyond, but I'll still lean their way with the offense kicking into high gear against Illinois last week. Iowa's offense will be able to move the ball against a thinner OSU defense, just not at the rate Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith will be doing it coming back the other way.
Florida (-5.5) vs. Missouri: Florida -5.5
One of the great mysteries of college football is Missouri's ability to stay ranked despite almost always lacking quality wins. Mizzou is 7-20 against AP Top-25 opponents since 2020 (including 5-8 at home) and is also 0-16 against SEC teams that go on to finish the season with a winning record in SEC play. Jon Sumrall has the Gators rolling again and is coming off a 52-28 win over Ole Miss, in which they rumbled for 300+ yards on the ground.
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Washington vs. USC (-9.5): USC -9.5
I've been successfully fading USC (specifically the defense) to this point in the season, but I actually think this is a nice spot to switch sides. Washington looked average at best during a 3-0 start before losing outright at home to Minnesota as 11.5-point favorites, and its offense is one of the few I would trust the Trojans to contain.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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