Unlike last week's slate, which was full of AP Top 25 teams in major spots, Week 5 lacks can't-miss games, but it does have two marquee matchups with College Football Playoff implications.
The two biggest games on Saturday lead off my Week 5 college football Top 25 predictions and college football picks, with Alabama hitting the road to play a red-hot Mississippi State team and Iowa hosting Ohio State in the College GameDay game.
But a handful of other interesting SEC games have barnburner potential, and any time a college football Saturday looks weak on paper, it often leads to chaos.
College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 5
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
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| Matchup | Watch Rating |
Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Alabamavs.  Mississippi State |
5/5 | -5.5 🟡 |
53% |
 Ohio Statevs.  Iowa |
5/5 | -13.5 ⚪ |
55% |
 Auburnvs.  Tennessee |
4/5 | -7.5 🟡 |
48% |
 Floridavs.  Missouri |
4/5 | -5.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Kentuckyvs.  South Carolina |
3/5 | -2.5 ⚪ |
54% |
 Washingtonvs.  USC |
3/5 | +10.5 ⚪ |
54% |
 Vanderbiltvs.  Georgia |
2/5 | -24.5 🟡 |
48% |
 Miamivs.  Clemson |
2/5 | -16.5 🟢 |
53% |
 Notre Damevs.  North Carolina |
2/5 | -21.5 🟢 |
47% |
 UCFvs.  Houston |
2/5 | +12.5 🟡 |
53% |
 BYUvs.  TCU |
2/5 | -6.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Boston Collegevs.  SMU |
2/5 | +20.5 🟡 |
48% |
 Utah Statevs.  Boise State |
2/5 | +20.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Texas Techvs.  Colorado |
1/5 | -11.5 🟢 |
52% |
 Indianavs.  Rutgers |
1/5 | -24.5 🟡 |
49% |
 McNeesevs.  LSU |
1/5 | -54.5 ⚪ |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Tier 1 watchability for Week 5 (must-watch)
Alabama (7) vs Mississippi State (16)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | noon ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Alabama -5.5 🟡
- ML pick: Alabama (66%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 59.5 ⚪
One of the biggest stories through the first month of the college football season has been Kamario Taylor, who's emerged as a Heisman Trophy odds favorite and arguably the most dynamic quarterback in college football. But this is his first real test of the season.
To this point, the Bulldogs' top opponent was a Missouri team that's now 7-20 against Top 25 teams under Eli Drinkwitz. And maybe if Jeff Lebby's team caught Alabama earlier in the season, I would take Mississippi State to cover the spread, but I like the Crimson Tide up to -6.5 with how they've looked lately.
Keelon Russell is playing like the prince that was promised as a top-10 recruit, with nine total touchdowns in his last two games. He's seventh nationally in QBR (89.0), ahead of even Taylor (87.1), and the Crimson Tide sit No. 4 in points per opportunity (5.36).
Alabama's offense ranks 19th in EPA per pass and 11th in third/fourth down success (56.9%), two spots Mississippi State's defense has struggled (82nd in EPA per pass, 60th in third/fourth down success). And Kalen DeBoer has the defensive talent to disrupt Taylor, with Yhonzae Pierre and Devan Thompkins leading a pass rush averaging 18.7 pressures per game.
Taylor is the most talented player in this matchup, but Alabama is the more well-rounded team and can win a shootout on the road by at least a touchdown.
Our Chris Vasile expects this to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week in his college football Over/Under picks.
Ohio State (5) vs Iowa (14)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
- ATS pick: Ohio State -13.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Ohio State (83%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 45.5 🟡
While Iowa is coming off an improbable win over Michigan on the final play and has College GameDay on campus for this matchup, the Hawkeyes haven't followed the classic Kirk Ferentz blueprint quite as well this season.
Despite having multiple All-American offensive linemen, Iowa's run game has been unimpressive. The Hawkeyes rank 121st in rush success rate (36%), 115th in EPA per rush, and are averaging just 75.5 rushing yards per game against Power Four opponents.
The defense, though strong against the run, has slipped to 66th in EPA per pass and allowed Michigan's much-maligned QB Bryce Underwood to have a career day last week. And the special teams have taken a slight step back with coordinator LeVar Woods leaving for Michigan State.
This Ohio State team is a worst-case-scenario matchup for the Hawkeyes right now, with the Buckeyes owning one of the top passing attacks in the country (fourth in EPA per pass) and a defense that's 14th in havoc rate (20.8%).
With Jeremiah Smith leading college football in almost every receiving category and Julian Sayin ranking second nationally in QBR (92.8), I expect Ohio State to pull away in the second half. Although I only like the Buckeyes to cover -13.5 or better.
Our Chris Gregory is also on Ohio State to cover as 13.5-point road favorites in his college football against-the-spread picks.
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Tier 2 watchability for Week 5 (worth watching)
Auburn vs Tennessee (17)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Tennessee -7.5 🟡
- ML pick: Tennessee (71%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 54.5 🟢
This Auburn team is one of the hardest to gauge through the first month of the season. One week they're beating Baylor by stopping a two-point conversion in a defensive battle, and the next they're losing to Florida in a shootout.
Last week, the Tigers sleepwalked through a six-point win against Vanderbilt in which they didn't even crack 300 total yards and had a lower net success rate than the Commodores. So I'm not trusting Auburn to show up in its first true road game of the season against a Tennessee team that just covered against the No. 1 team in the country (I like the Volunteers up to -8.5).
Although Faizon Brandon struggled against a Texas defense ranked No. 5 by SP+, Tennessee's veer-and-shoot offense is capable of being explosive, especially on the ground. The Vols are sixth nationally in EPA per rush, and DeSean Bishop should have a field day against an Auburn defense that gave up 243 rushing yards to Florida.
But the bigger advantage is Jim Knowles' defense against Alex Golesh's offense. Auburn is 13th in the SEC in offensive success rate (42.8%) behind an ugly passing game, while Tennessee is top 10 in the country in havoc rate (21.8%).
The weather is expected to be poor in Knoxville, too, which favors the team with the better defense and run game.
Florida (8) vs Missouri (25)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Florida -5.5 🟡
- ML pick: Florida (66%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 56.5 ⚪
No team has been more impressive to start the season than Florida. First-year head coach Jon Sumrall already has a win over a top-10 team (Ole Miss) and has his Gators looking like a dark-horse college football national championship odds contender.
Florida has the most efficient offense in college football (someone needs to hire coordinator Buster Faulkner ... I'm looking at you, Florida State), ranking No. 1 in EPA per pass, No. 1 in available yards percentage (76.3%), and No. 5 in EPA per rush.
The star of the show has been projected first-round pick Jadan Baugh, who leads the country in rushing touchdowns (11) and forced missed tackles (34), while sitting No. 2 in rushing yards (600). That spells trouble for a Missouri defense whose weak spot is stopping the run (52nd in EPA per rush).
And for as impressive as Tigers QB Austin Simmons has been, Missouri's lack of a run game without Ahmad Hardy has been a problem. The Tigers are just 1-3 ATS, and Drinkwitz has long disappointed against teams ranked in the AP Top 25, which is why I like Florida up to -6.5.
Chris Vasile is also on the Gators to chomp the Tigers in his college football moneyline picks.
Tier 3 watchability for Week 5 (interesting)
Kentucky (24) vs South Carolina
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 4:15 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: South Carolina -2.5 ⚪
- ML pick: South Carolina (57%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 53.5 🟡
It might be slightly surprising to see South Carolina favored against Kentucky, given how the Gamecocks looked last week against Alabama and the fact that Shane Beamer suspended his best player, Dylan Stewart, indefinitely.
But Kentucky's big win against Texas A&M hasn't aged well, with the Aggies following up the loss to UK by losing to LSU by 29. The Wildcats are overrated, and the Gamecocks have the talent to win this game by a field goal (I wouldn't take them if they're favored by more than 2.5).
LaNorris Sellers has struggled, but he's still one of the most physically gifted QBs in the country and has Carolina ranked 12th in EPA per rush and 27th in available yards percentage (55.5%). Kentucky's defense is just 64th in EPA per rush and 73rd in available yards percentage (47.9%).
And Kentucky's offense has been one of the worst in the country on money downs, sitting 136th out of 138 programs in third/fourth down success (23.1%).
Washington vs USC (18)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: Washington +10.5 ⚪
- ML pick: USC (77%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 60.5 🟡
This is a must-win game for USC and a must-look-better game for Washington. Neither program has lived up to the offseason hype, and I'm having a hard time feeling confident in either after their Week 4 games.
USC just lost at home to Oregon by double digits, despite the Ducks having to play Dylan Raiola after a dirty hit knocked Dante Moore out. Meanwhile, the Huskies lost at home to Minnesota and failed to cover the spread once again. These two are a combined 1-9 ATS after the first month of the season and both have major flaws.
USC's defense is among the worst in the country, ranking 123rd in net EPA per play and 104th in success rate (48.9%). Washington's offense is 106th in net EPA per play and 74th in offensive success rate (44.%).
The other side of this matchup is where the action happens, though. USC's offense is seventh in net EPA per play and third in success rate (56.3%). Washington's defense is fifth in net EPA per play and 17th in success rate (37.5%).
Something's got to give here, and I'm trusting Demond Williams Jr. to do enough to not lose by double digits against a demoralized Trojans team. I like Washington to cover +9.5 or better.
Tier 4 watchability for Week 5 (blowout brewing)
Vanderbilt vs Georgia (2)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 12:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Georgia -24.5 🟡
- ML pick: Georgia (95%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 🟡
Kirby Smart has this year's Georgia team looking like his national championship-winning teams from earlier this decade. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 ranked team by SP+ and the only team in the country that's top five on offense (No. 2), defense (No. 1), and special teams (No. 4).
Georgia is 4-0 ATS and has covered those games by an average margin of 10 points, including beating Oklahoma by 28 as an 11.5-point favorite last week. Still, I only like Georgia to cover up to -26.5.
Vanderbilt is in a rebuild, and if not for an unbelievably dumb play by NC State QB CJ Bailey, the Commodores would be 0-2 against Power Four teams. To make matters tougher for Clark Lea, his freshman phenom QB Jared Curtis is questionable for this game.
The weather is supposed to be rough in Athens as well, which favors a Georgia team with a defense ranked No. 3 in EPA per rush and an offense led by an efficient veteran in Gunner Stockton, who's third in QBR (90.6).
Miami (4) vs Clemson
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Miami -16.5 🟢
- ML pick: Miami (86%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 ⚪
The Dabo Swinney era at Clemson still has life because the Tigers have managed to claw out wins against rebuilding ACC programs. Miami is far from rebuilding and has been thrashing opponents this season.
Darian Mensah is No. 1 nationally in QBR (93.9), and he has a perfect NFL QB rating when throwing to Malachi Toney (158.3). Those two should score enough to cover up to -18.5 in this game, especially with Clemson's ineptitude on offense.
The Tigers are last (17th) in the ACC in offensive success rate (34.2%) and have leaned heavily on their run game to make up for a passing attack that's 133rd in EPA per pass. Well, Miami is fourth nationally in EPA per rush on defense.
Notre Dame (3) vs North Carolina
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | noon ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: Notre Dame -21.5 🟢
- ML pick: Notre Dame (93%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 45.5 🟡
The last time North Carolina was on the football field, it blew a 17-3 lead against Clemson and lost 28-20 after a weather delay. That's about as demoralizing as it gets for a Bill Belichick-led program that nobody really believes in, other than maybe Jordon Hudson.
Notre Dame hasn't messed around this season, covering in three of four games, all of which it was favored by at least 21.5 points. And I'd argue the Tar Heels are worse than three of the four teams the Fighting Irish have played so far (they're 78th in net EPA per play).
CJ Carr has Notre Dame's offense ranked 13th in success rate (51.6%), and Boubacar Traore has the defense ranked fourth in havoc rate (24%). UNC doesn't stand a chance, and I would take Notre Dame to cover by as many as 23.5 points.
UCF vs Houston (20)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | noon ET | ESPN2
- ATS pick: UCF +12.5 🟡
- ML pick: Houston (79%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 ⚪
This spread is a little large for my taste, and despite UCF's QB situation (Alonza Barnett III is hurt), I think the Knights can cover +10.5 or better. Last week, Scott Frost's team beat TCU outright as a 3.5-point underdog; it was the third time the Knights have covered in four games this season.
Backup QB Keyone Jenkins, who was a three-year starter at FIU, had the highest adjusted completion percentage in the country in Week 4 (95%). Houston's defense has really struggled against the pass this season, ranking 102nd in pass success rate (50%) and 122nd in EPA per pass.
If Jenkins can do enough to push the Cougars' defense, UCF should be in good shape. The Knights have a sneaky strong defense that's 10th in rush success rate (35.1%), and with weather expected to be a factor, it could make it tough on Houston QB Conner Weigman.
BYU (10) vs TCU
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: BYU -6.5 🟡
- ML pick: BYU (70%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 47.5 🟡
TCU might be the most disappointing team in the country this season. The Horned Frogs have lost twice now as favorites against Power Four teams that aren't expected to make bowl games (North Carolina, UCF).
This is TCU's first game against a quality opponent, and BYU doesn't tend to mess around under Kalani Sitake. The Cougars are 13-4 ATS since the start of last season when Bear Bachmeier took over as the starting QB as a freshman.
Bachmeier and LJ Martin are one of the most physical one-two punch tandems in the country and should wear down a TCU defense that's 62nd in rush success rate (44.2%). The Cougars are No. 1 nationally in offensive success rate (59.9%) behind their run game, and I'd take them to cover up to -8.5.
Boston College vs SMU (21)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | noon ET | CW
- ATS pick: Boston College +20.5 🟡
- ML pick: SMU (91%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 🟢
Lost in last week's wild action was SMU, struggling with a bad Missouri State team. At one point against a program ranked 125th by SP+, the Mustangs were losing 10-7 late in the second quarter. They ended up winning 34-24, but failed to cover for the second straight game.
Boston College can make that three straight games, and I'd take them to cover +17.5 or better. The Eagles have shown an ability to muck up games; just ask Virginia Tech and Rutgers. They have a quality run game under Bill O'Brien and a defense that's 29th in EPA per pass.
That could make this a tough matchup for an SMU offense that cannot run the ball efficiently (114th in EPA per rush). Plus, the wet weather should help a BC team that dealt with a nor'easter last week.
Utah State vs Boise State (22)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 7:30 p.m. ET | CBSSN
- ATS pick: Utah State +20.5 🟡
- ML pick: Boise State (92%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟡
Boise State is coming off a huge road win over a Western Michigan program that essentially beat Michigan in Week 1, and next week it has a major Pac-12 matchup with Fresno State. Could the Broncos get caught looking ahead?
Despite losing to an FCS team in Week 1, Utah State has been a tough team to cover against this season. The Aggies lost to Washington by two points as a 28.5-point underdog and then beat Troy last week by 11 as a 2.5-point favorite.
And this Aggies defense is one of the most underrated in the Group of Six, ranking 42nd nationally in net EPA per play. Brad Powers' college football power rankings have Utah State closer to a 17.5-point underdog against Boise State, and I like the Aggies to cover +17.5 or better.
Tier 5 watchability for Week 5 (it's still football)
Texas Tech (12) vs Colorado
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 7:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Texas Tech -11.5 🟢
- ML pick: Texas Tech (81%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 ⚪
It's getting late early for Deion Sanders, who has officially benched QB JuJu Lewis for Isaac Wilson (Zach's younger brother). After Coach Prime beat Georgia Tech to open the season, Colorado has failed to cover in three straight games, losing its last two matchups by double digits.
Texas Tech hasn't been as strong as expected, but the Red Raiders shouldn't have much trouble against Colorado. Joey McGuire's team is top 20 in offensive success rate (50.7%) and can cover a spread of at least -13.5.
Indiana (6) vs Rutgers
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 8 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
- ATS pick: Indiana -24.5 🟡
- ML pick: Indiana (94%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 56.5 🟡
Rutgers finally won a game, and its reward is having to play a pissed-off Curt Cignetti after the defending national champions were nearly upset at home by Northwestern last week. Indiana is flawed, but it's not flawed enough to let a Rutgers team that lost to UMass and Boston College cover.
The Hoosiers are 11th nationally in net EPA per play, and Rutgers is 108th. I would take an angry Cignetti to cover -27.5 or better.
McNeese vs LSU (11)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 3 | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: LSU -54.5 ⚪
- ML pick: LSU (99%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 61.5 ⚪
FCS teams have been consistently blown out by Power Four programs this season, and there's no reason to believe that trend will end with this matchup. LSU has one of the best defenses in the country, ranking seventh in havoc rate (22.4%), and should have zero issue shutting down a McNeese offense that's ranked 200th by SP+.
With heavy rain expected throughout the game, LSU's ground attack should shine, but I wouldn't take them to cover more than -54.5.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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