All four Divisional Series begin with Game 1 today, and my home run props are eyeing three well-known sluggers to leave the yard.
Munetaka Murakami kicks things off, followed by Ben Rice and Shohei Ohtani.
Read all about it in my MLB player props for Saturday, Oct. 3.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Probability |
|---|---|
 Munetaka Murakami |
18% |
 Ben Rice |
21% |
 Shohei Ohtani |
22% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 135.87x |
Home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami
Play up to 23%.
Munetaka Murakami finished the regular season on fire, clubbing three homers in his final six games while posting a .458 ISO. The slugger had a ridiculous 81.3% hard-hit rate and 50% barrel rate during that span, plus a 62.5% fly ball rate.
Although he was quiet in the Wild Card Series against the Astros, it's hard to ignore his form to close out the campaign. While it's an incredibly small sample size, Murakami's only hit in four at-bats against Cleveland Guardians Game 1 starter Parker Messick was a bomb.
After going deep 35 times in 2026, I'll take Murakami to smack his first career playoff homer today.
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
Home run prediction: Ben Rice
Play up to 25%.
Ben Rice terrorized pitchers this season, hitting a career-best 41 home runs. He already left the yard twice in the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, finishing with five hits and four extra-base hits in those two games.
The slugger also clubbed two long balls in his final six contests in the regular season while posting some extremely loud hard-hit rate and barrel numbers. The matchup isn't easy tonight, as Rice will face Tampa Bay Rays righty Drew Rasmussen, but he's been a bit more vulnerable against left-handed hitters this season.
It's also worth noting that Rice smacked seven homers against the Rays this season while batting .356.
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
Home run prediction: Shohei Ohtani
Play up to 25%.
Shohei Ohtani may not have a ton of homers to show for lately, but he's consistently squaring up the baseball, which is a major reason I like this pick. The superstar has a 69.2% hard-hit rate and 30.8% barrel rate over his last six contests.
It's unclear who the Atlanta Braves will send to the hill in Game 1, but Ohtani hit 16 of his bombs at Dodger Stadium this season. I'm not going to sit here and act like Ohtani has been on a power surge lately, because that's simply not true.
However, when you look at how hard he's hitting the ball, it's a significant hint that he could break out at any moment, and we've seen him step up in the postseason many times before, going deep eight times in last year's playoff run.
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
- HR picks: 19-105, -18.72 units
Best home run combo for October 3
| Munetaka Murakami |
Trade Now 135.87x |
| Ben Rice |
|
| Shohei Ohtani |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
