Week 5 of the college football season has arrived, which means it's time for some more college football player props
My college football picks for this week include five player props for Saturday, Oct. 3, holding value in the emerging --- and beatable --- market, aided by the influx of opportunities at prediction markets.
Best Week 5 college football player props
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Marcus Stokes Over 230.5 Passing Yards |
|
 Kenny Darby Over 44.5 Receiving Yards |
|
 Demond Williams Jr. Over 32.5 Rushing Yards |
|
 Kyson Brown Under 91.5 Rushing Yards |
|
 Carson Clark Over 52.5 Receiving Yards |
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Prop pick #1: Marcus Stokes Over 230.5 Passing Yards
West Florida transfer Marcus Stokes has been an immediate hit for Memphis, throwing for 263.3 yards per game while leading his team to a 3-1 start. The market is disrespecting him with this line, so I'm on the Over.
It's a ripe matchup against Charlotte, which ranks bottom five in passing success rate allowed. That's a far mark from Memphis, which ranks sixth in EPA per pass and 20th in passing success rate when it has the ball.
The 49ers don't have the requisite secondary talent to make their mark, ranking 117th in PFF's coverage grade. They won't slow down a potent Memphis offense averaging 8.1 yards per play, and it all starts with Stokes.
- Matchup: Memphis vs. Charlotte
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 11:00 a.m. ET
- Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, NC
- TV: ESPN+
Prop pick #2: Kenny Darby Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
Kenny Darby has been the SEC's most productive freshman receiver, and South Carolina's porous secondary won't slow him down. The Gamecocks rank 134th in EPA pass, and in their two SEC games, they have allowed 623 yards and nine touchdowns through the air.
Darby leads Kentucky with 226 receiving yards (56.5 per game) and two scores. He's averaging a robust 3.65 yards per route run and is proving to be a tough cover in the slot, so here's betting on another productive outing from the precocious pass-catcher.
- Matchup: No. 24 Kentucky vs. South Carolina
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 4:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
- TV: SEC Network
Prop pick #3: Demond Williams Jr. Over 32.5 Rushing Yards
Stop me if you've heard this before, but USC simply cannot figure out that whole "defense" thing under Lincoln Riley.
The most recent embarrassment on that side of the ball ranks 108th in EPA per play. Turns out, hiring a 66-year-old defensive coordinator (Gary Patterson) who hasn't held a college job since 2021 and hasn't fielded a top-20 defense since 2014 might not be the "cure-all" Riley hoped for.
Demond Williams Jr. can capitalize with his legs. He's one of the nation's most dangerous rushing threats at quarterback, averaging 41.3 yards per game on the ground.
He should continue seeing plenty of work there, given that Washington's top two running backs, Quaid Carr and Jayden Limar, remain out due to injury. USC doesn't get into the backfield much (109th in front-seven in havoc), reducing the risk of negative yardage.
- Matchup: Washington vs. No. 18 USC
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
- TV: NBC
Prop pick #4: Kyson Brown Under 91.5 Rushing Yards
The Joe Klanderman hire is looking like one of the best offseason coordinator moves in the sport.
The former Kansas State defensive coordinator is thriving in that role in Waco, improving Baylor's scoring defense from 32.6 ppg (122nd nationally) to 13.0 ppg (16th) and their total defense from 392.2 ypg (88th) to 306 ypg (38th).
The advanced metrics support this rise, as the Bears rank 13th in EPA per play. They've especially excelled at stopping opposing rushing attacks, ranking seventh in rushing success rate allowed while holding opponents to a minuscule 2.8 yards per rushing play.
Arizona State hasn't gotten the ground game going (121st in EPA per rush, 108th in rushing success rate). The offensive line is an issue (117th in line yards, 116th in stuff rate), so this Kyson Brown line is a step too optimistic.
- Matchup: Baylor vs. Arizona State
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 10:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
- TV: ESPN
Prop pick #5: Carson Clark Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Carson Clark is a freshman phenom for the Group of 6's Wide Receiver U, nabbing 24 receptions for 240 yards and three scores through his first four collegiate games.
He paces San Jose State with 36 targets—eight more than any other teammate. This is the same system that brought us mega-productive wideouts like Nick Nash and Danny Scudero, and now Clark is next up as the heir apparent.
That's hard for markets to price in, especially early in the season and early in a young player's career. Clark has cleared this number in three of four contests, and the lone blip came when his quarterback gave away four interceptions to Fresno State.
Hawaii's defense doesn't pose that threat, ranking 124th in success rate. Clark and this offense should cook on the island in a favorable matchup.
- Matchup: San Jose State vs. Hawaii
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 11:59 p.m. ET
- Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
- TV: MW+
- Prop picks: 17-10, +7.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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