Last week was good to us. We went 8-2 on the moneyline, so naturally the only reasonable response is to come back swinging even harder in Week 5.
My college football moneyline picks feature 10 games across the Thursday-to-Saturday slate, with a mix of reliable favorites and a few underdogs we think the market is sleeping on.
From Mississippi State trying to shake up the SEC to late-night value in Hawaii, here are the teams we're backing to simply win.
Check out all of our college football picks for more Week 5 betting coverage.
Week 5 college football moneyline picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Western Kentucky vs  New Mexico State |
46% |
 Penn State vs  Northwestern |
55% |
 Navy vs  Air Force |
59% |
 Alabama vs  Mississippi State |
33% |
 Florida vs  Missouri |
67% |
 Auburn vs  Tennessee |
72% |
 Eastern Michigan vs  UMass |
64% |
 Kentucky vs  South Carolina |
43% |
 Baylor vs  Arizona State |
39% |
 San Jose State vs  Hawai'i |
42% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 5 CFB moneyline picks
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State: Western Kentucky
WKU's record is hiding a much better matchup than the Hilltoppers have seen lately. New Mexico State has allowed more than six yards per play against FBS opponents, and Rodney Tisdale Jr. already knows how to attack this defense after throwing four touchdowns against the Aggies last season.
After spending September dealing with Georgia and Indiana, this is a major step down in resistance. If Tisdale gets time, WKU should consistently create chunk plays.
Penn State vs Northwestern: Penn State
Northwestern's offense is at its best when Aidan Chiles can push the ball downfield, but Penn State is built to take that away.
The Nittany Lions have allowed just two passing touchdowns while intercepting five passes, and only three completions against them have gone for 25-plus yards.
Penn State's offense has issues, but if its defense forces Northwestern to string together long drives instead of living on explosives, the Nittany Lions have the higher floor.
Navy vs Air Force: Air Force
The obvious battle is option vs. option, but the real edge may come when Air Force throws. Navy has been solid against the run, yet the Midshipmen have allowed more than 10 yards per pass attempt and eight passing touchdowns.
Air Force rarely puts the ball in the air, but it has been efficient when it does. If Navy commits extra bodies to Liam Szarka and the option game, a couple of well-timed play-action shots could swing this matchup.
Alabama vs Mississippi State: Mississippi State
Super Kamario is real. Kamario Taylor has 1,192 passing yards and 14 touchdowns through four games, and now he gets an Alabama secondary that has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt and nine completions of 25-plus yards.
That's exactly where Mississippi State can hurt the Tide. With Fluff Bothwell forcing Alabama to respect the run and Anthony Evans III stretching the field, Taylor should have opportunities to attack vertically.
At Davis Wade, I'll take the Bulldogs outright.
Florida vs Missouri: Florida
Missouri's run defense has been excellent, allowing fewer than three yards per carry, but that strength can create problems elsewhere.
The Tigers have already surrendered eight passing touchdowns, and Florida has the balance to force them into difficult choices. Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark demand extra attention in the box, which should create favorable looks for Aaron Philo outside. Missouri may be able to take away one dimension of Florida's offense. I don't trust it to erase both.
Auburn vs Tennessee: Tennessee
Auburn needs Byrum Brown's legs and improvisation to create offense, but Tennessee is built to make him win from the pocket.
The Vols have allowed just 5.7 yards per pass attempt and one passing touchdown, while their front just produced 10 tackles for loss and six sacks against Texas. Brown has already thrown five interceptions. Tennessee doesn't need to completely stop him.
Force Auburn behind the chains, unleash the pass rush, and make Brown beat the strength of this defense.
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Eastern Michigan vs UMass: UMass
This is one of the cleanest strength-vs-weakness matchups on the board. Eastern Michigan is averaging only 4.3 yards per play and barely three yards per rush, while converting roughly 30% of its third downs.
UMass has been excellent at making offenses play behind schedule, allowing fewer than 70 rushing yards per game and getting off the field on third down.
EMU already struggles to sustain drives. The Minutemen are a team on the ride. Take them at home.
Kentucky vs South Carolina: Kentucky
South Carolina's overall defensive numbers hide how badly things have gone once SEC play started. The Gamecocks have allowed more than seven yards per play through two conference games, and Kentucky now has a backfield capable of forcing them into uncomfortable personnel decisions.
C.J. Baxter and Jason Patterson can punish light boxes, while Kenny Minchey has been efficient enough to attack single coverage when safeties creep forward. That's a difficult equation for a defense already giving up explosive plays.
Baylor vs Arizona State: Baylor
Arizona State has been living on short fields and explosive swings, but Baylor's defense is designed to make teams earn everything.
The Bears are allowing barely more than four yards per play and have consistently forced opponents into long drives. That's a problem for an ASU offense that generated only 228 yards against Kansas and needed three takeaways plus a kickoff-return touchdown to survive.
If Baylor protects the football, I don't trust the Sun Devils to manufacture enough offense on their own.
San Jose State vs Hawaii: San Jose State
Hawaii has been vulnerable everywhere San Jose State wants to attack. The Rainbow Warriors are allowing more than eight yards per pass attempt and nearly 180 rushing yards per game, while SJSU is averaging more than 400 yards of offense behind Luke Weaver.
That gives the Spartans multiple ways to create explosives instead of relying on Weaver to carry the entire offense.
Add five straight wins over Hawaii to the matchup edge, and 42% feels too low on San Jose State.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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