Week 4’s international matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders is a hard sell to UK football fans. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has plenty of available seats, prompting the NFL to trim ticket prices.
Perhaps a splash of my Colts vs. Commanders prediction in your Sunday morning coffee (or tea) can wake things up, with Indianapolis set as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite.
Here are my best NFL picks for Oct. 4.
Colts vs Commanders prediction: Under 47.5
Now, imagine waking up that early to cheer for the Under. Before you hit snooze, hear me out.
This total will obviously tick up should Washington Commanders QB1 Jayden Daniels play (dislocated elbow), but I don’t think he will. That means more of backup Marcus Mariota.
Washington’s pace of play slows down with Mariota under center and the Commanders offense is getting too much credit for the 33 points scored in last Sunday’s upset of Seattle.
That production benefited from three turnovers (one pick-6) and Seattle’s inability to run the ball. The Commies had extra cracks on offense but managed just 4.0 yards per play and were outgained by almost 180 yards.
The Indianapolis Colts won’t have trouble running. Jonathan Taylor anchors an Indy attack that takes its sweet time, eating up the seventh-most seconds per play clock.
The Colts collected 35:13 in TOP in the win versus Houston and will keep plays short and simple in Week 4.
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Colts vs Commanders combo
International games tend to trend toward the Under, and this one will be played at a snail’s pace. The Colts will go run-heavy to chew up the clock and limit the exposure of a soft defense, while the Commanders come back to earth with a backup under center in a big letdown spot.
Tyler Warren has two touchdowns on the season and exposes the soft underbelly of this aggressive Commies defense, which has allowed five touchdowns to TEs already in 2026.
Jonathan Taylor tests the validity of this Washington run-stop unit. His projections call for 90+ rushing yards, and his offensive line clears the road against a Commanders defense missing bodies at LB.
Colts vs Commanders combo
- Under 47.5
- Tyler Warren touchdown
- Jonathan Taylor 90+ rushing yards
TOP PICK
Colts vs Commanders player prop: Jonathan Taylor 90+ rushing yards
Colts star Jonathan Taylor is sixth in rushing yards after three weeks despite Indianapolis handing it off on only 44% of snaps.
This trip to London is the first time Indy has been a favorite, setting up a rare run-positive game script for Taylor.
He faces a Washington defense that ranks well against the run, but that has a lot to do with how bad the Commanders are at protecting against the pass. Foes are throwing at the fifth-highest rate against this defense and doing so successfully.
Why eat burgers when you can have prime rib, right?
Projections for Taylor range from 86 to 100 yards, with most models at 90+. My number comes out to 95+ yards from Indy’s stud RB.
COVERS INTEL: Washington’s run-stopping unit is running thin. Linebacker Leo Chenal is out for the season after a neck injury in Week 3, and LB Frankie Luvu is fighting a nagging groin ailment. That shorthanded group faces a Colts offensive line rated No. 6 in run block at PFF.Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Colts vs Commanders odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Colts -4.5 | Commanders +4.5
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (50%) | Under 47.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Colts 64% | Commanders 37%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
- Top picks: 7-2, +4.22 units
- Combos: 0-9, -9.00 units
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Colts vs Commanders weather
The forecast for London calls for cloudy skies and mid-60s temperatures. Winds blow at 6 mph WSW with gusts up to 16 mph, which won’t affect the on-field action.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Colts vs Commanders trend to know
The Colts were a perfect 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS when Jonathan Taylor rushed for 100+ yards in 2025. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Commanders.
How to watch Colts vs Commanders
| Location | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Colts vs Commanders latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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