A 10-6 Week 3 (+0.77 units) has us back in the green, and my NFL moneyline picks are ready to attack another loaded slate.
Browns-Steelers kicks off the action on TNF, an early London game gets Sunday started, and an AFC West showdown between the Chiefs and upstart Raiders headlines my favorite NFL picks for Week 4.
My NFL moneyline record is 30-18 this season for +2.50 units.
NFL moneyline picks for Week 4
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Steelers vs  Browns |
43% |
 Colts vs  Commanders |
64% |
 Cardinals vs  Giants |
53% |
 Patriots vs  Bills |
74% |
 Jets vs  Bears |
39% |
 Cowboys vs  Texans |
44% |
 Rams vs  Eagles |
61% |
 Packers vs  Buccaneers |
64% |
 Titans vs  Ravens |
86% |
 Jaguars vs  Bengals |
42% |
 Dolphins vs  Vikings |
85% |
 Chiefs vs  Raiders |
66% |
 Chargers vs  Seahawks |
75% |
 Broncos vs  49ers |
58% |
 Lions vs  Panthers |
65% |
 Falcons vs  Saints |
43% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET
Steelers vs. Browns: Browns
Not only is Pittsburgh 0-9 in its last nine road divisional games on TNF, but Cleveland is 6-1-1 ATS over its last eight home matchups against the Steelers.
Vibes in Cleveland are surprisingly high under Todd Monken, so give me the Browns to prevail in front of the Dawg Pound.
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Colts vs. Commanders: Colts
Despite Washington upsetting Seattle in Week 3, the Commanders still rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA and will remain without Jayden Daniels in London.
The Colts' defense is coming off its best outing of the season against a bad Texans O-line and will now face a similarly weak WSH unit. Indy is set to get back to .500.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Cardinals vs. Giants: Cardinals
New York only prevailed 12-6 over Tennessee due to the sheer incompetence of Cam Ward.
Meanwhile, Arizona took San Francisco down to the wire on the road in the Bay Area, and as bad as the Cardinals' D has been, their offense has enough weapons to move the ball.
Patriots vs. Bills: Bills
Despite turning the ball over five times against the Chargers, Buffalo still came out on top to remain undefeated.
Josh Allen & Co. should clean things up this time around, but even if they don't, they'll easily one-up Drake Maye, who has gone from last year's MVP runner-up to playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
Jets vs. Bears: Jets
I'm going to sell on Case Keenum following an incredible MNF performance.
On a short week against a staunch Jets defense, let's remember that Keenum is still a 38-year-old journeyman with a career passer rating of just 84.9. I like the road side to bring him back down to earth.
Cowboys vs. Texans: Cowboys
I've backed Houston three straight times to start the year, and I've had enough.
At some point, I can't overlook how awful the Texans' O-line is, so I'm willing to bite my tongue on the Cowboys' defense and trust their scoring unit to power them to victory.
More Covers NFL trading tools
Rams vs. Eagles: Rams
Not only are the Rams pissed off after blowing a 16-0 lead against Denver in a game they thoroughly dominated for most of the night, but now they get to face an Eagles team that got picked apart by Case Keenum.
Meanwhile, Sean Mannion has hardly proven to be an upgrade over Kevin Patullo as the Eagles' new OC. Los Angeles had Philly on the ropes at the Linc just a year ago, and this time, the Rams will get the job done.
Packers vs. Buccaneers: Packers
Get ready for a battle between two of the top contenders in the First NFL Coach Fired odds.
As much of a mess as the Packers are, I'm inclined to fade the Bucs with Jalon Daniels making his first career start and Green Bay coming in with a rest advantage.
Titans vs. Ravens: Ravens
Cam Ward is intercepted with the game on the line, and the Giants hold on to knock off the Titans pic.twitter.com/Gz78ek3I7x
— Sport & State (@SportNState) September 27, 2026
Usually, I'd be worried about the Ravens traveling all the way back from Brazil, but thanks to Cam Ward, I'm not!
Jaguars vs. Bengals: Jaguars
Jacksonville ranks Top 5 in EPA per play on both offense and defense, capped by a dominant 35-6 win over the Patriots in Week 3.
Joe Burrow's record when trailing in crunch time is extremely concerning, so I'm riding with the Jags on the road.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Dolphins vs. Vikings: Vikings
Minnesota's defense is off to a scorching start, surrendering the fewest points per drive (1.1) heading into this "free space" matchup against the winless Dolphins.
Kyler Murray struggled in his return last week, but a matchup against a pitiful Miami defense could be just what the doctor ordered.
Chiefs vs. Raiders: Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is 13-2 lifetime against Las Vegas, including a perfect 6-0 record at Allegiant Stadium.
Although Klint Kubiak headlines the latest Coach of the Year odds, I'll need to see the Raiders beat Mahomes & Co. before I believe it.
Chargers vs. Seahawks: Seahawks
Despite getting upset in Landover last week, Seattle still outgained Washington 437-258 in total yardage, with a costly -3 turnover margin ultimately sinking the defending champs.
Facing a lifeless Chargers squad whose quarterback has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, give me Seattle to blow out L.A. in front of the 12th Man.
Broncos vs. 49ers: 49ers
Niners fans can breathe a sigh of relief for now, as Kyle Shanahan has provided positive updates on the latest injuries to Mike Evans, Trent Williams, and Dre Greenlaw.
With the 49ers ranking No. 1 in both offensive EPA per play and success rate, and Bo Nix only waking up by the fourth quarter — à la Tim Tebow — this is San Francisco's game to lose.
Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET
Lions vs. Panthers: Lions
Detroit's offense has scored at least 31 points in all three games to start the season, and now it gets to face a Panthers defense that just lost star cornerback Jaycee Horn to a torn quad.
I'm not banking on Carolina keeping pace with this high-powered Lions attack.
Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET
Falcons vs. Saints: Falcons
Atlanta may be sneaky good, boasting the NFL's No. 1 marks in both pressure rate and pressure rate allowed heading into MNF.
Of course, they could go full Failclowns on us in the Big Easy, but it's hard to ignore those elite metrics and Michael Penix Jr.'s encouraging performance last week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
