It's Week 5 and another chance to find some of the best touchdown values on the board.
Our college football anytime touchdown picks feature two Notre Dame Irish receivers, a Houston Cougars target, a Louisville Cardinals back, and a Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback.
Here are five college football touchdown values and college football picks for Week 5.
Best Week 5 college football anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Keyjuan Brown |
|
 Jordan Faison |
|
 Amare Thomas |
|
 Kamario Taylor |
|
| Micah Gilbert |
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Pick #1: Keyjuan Brown anytime touchdown
Keyjuan Brown has quietly been one of the most explosive backs in the country, rushing for 279 yards on 30 carries and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. The metrics credited him with 16.3 yards per carry, 1.12 EPA per rush and a 60% success rate in the Louisville Cardinals win over the SMU Mustangs. That performance showed Brown can create chunk plays without needing a massive workload.
QB Lincoln Kienholz is a game-time decision after hurting his ankle against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. If he is out or limited, Louisville is more likely to simplify the offense and run more often in red-zone situations instead of asking backup Davin Wydner to make difficult throws.
That should increase Brown’s share of the highest-value carries in a matchup Louisville should control.
- Matchup: Louisville vs. NC State
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Carter Finley Stadium, Wake County, North Carolina
- TV: ACC Network
Pick #2: Jordan Faison anytime touchdown
Jordan Faison has caught 17 of 23 targets for 239 yards and two touchdowns, while the metrics assign him 0.79 EPA per play and a 70% success rate. The Notre Dame Irish rank first nationally in adjusted EPA per play and fifth in passing success rate.
The North Carolina Tar Heels pass defense ranks 32nd in EPA allowed, so this is not an automatic matchup. However, Notre Dame’s early-down efficiency should continue putting CJ Carr in favorable passing situations.
Faison has enough route volume to stay involved even if the Tar Heels commit extra bodies to the run. His combination of efficiency, target share and red-zone access makes him a strong way to attack the Irish passing game.
- Matchup: Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
- TV: ESPN
Pick #3: Amare Thomas anytime touchdown
Amare Thomas has the best combination of current production and efficiency on the Houston Cougars roster. He leads the Cougars with 258 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while the metrics credit him with 0.84 EPA per play and a 66% success rate.
Houston ranks third nationally in adjusted offensive EPA per play and fifth in offensive success rate, so this offense should continue creating scoring opportunities. The opponent defense ranks 10th against the run, which could push Houston toward Conner Weigman’s passing game near the goal line.
Thomas has already established a consistent connection with Weigman and can score from outside the red zone as well. His ability to win both underneath and downfield gives him multiple paths to a touchdown.
- Matchup: UCF vs. Houston
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas
- TV: ESPN2
Pick #4: Kamario Taylor anytime touchdown
It seems only right to back the QB that has took the nation by storm to score in his biggest game of the season yet.
The metrics rank him 13th nationally in passing EPA per play and 17th in rushing EPA per rush. He has produced 217 rushing yards on 28 attempts, with 0.60 EPA per rush and a 67.9% rushing success rate.
That makes Kamario Taylor more than a quarterback who occasionally scrambles. The Mississippi State Bulldogs can use him on designed keepers, quarterback runs and option looks when the defense is focused on Fluff Bothwell.
The Bulldogs rank fourth nationally in rushing success rate and 12th in offensive success rate, so Alabama cannot simply sit back and force Taylor to win every snap through the air. His mobility gives Mississippi State another reliable red-zone weapon.
- Matchup: Alabama vs. Mississippi State
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
- TV: ABC
Pick #5: Micah Gilbert anytime touchdown
Micah Gilbert has 15 catches for 334 yards and two touchdowns, while the metrics credit him with 1.27 EPA per play and a 74% success rate. Notre Dame ranks fifth nationally in passing success rate and 10th in EPA per pass.
North Carolina’s pass defense ranks 32nd in EPA allowed, so Gilbert should have opportunities if the Tar Heels commit extra bodies to Notre Dame’s rushing attack.
The Irish also rank sixth in early-down EPA, creating manageable situations for Carr to attack vertically. Gilbert’s explosive production makes him a stronger standalone play than his 47% probability suggests.
- Matchup: Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 3 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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