Each week during the season, I’ll review my biggest college football power-ranking adjustments from the prior week and my best spot bets.
Week 4 saw my power rankings best bets go 1-1, with Georgia an easy winner while Virginia Tech could not cover the double-digit spread in poor weather conditions in Boston.
This week, I have some major discrepancies in my power rankings around key numbers that you can still use to your advantage in your college football picks.
Week 5 power rankings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last week | This week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 92.94 | 93.94 | +1.0 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 92.40 | 93.40 | +1.0 |
| 3 | Ohio State | 93.28 | 92.28 | -1.0 |
| 4 | Texas | 91.57 | 91.57 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Miami (FL) | 89.15 | 89.65 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Indiana | 90.03 | 88.53 | -1.5 |
| 7 | LSU | 85.66 | 88.16 | +2.5 |
| 8 | Alabama | 85.88 | 87.38 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Oregon | 87.08 | 87.08 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Florida | 83.21 | 85.71 | +2.5 |
Brad Powers Week 5 top picks
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Utah State 
Boise State 
Army 
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Brad Powers Week 5 power ratings
Utah State +20.5 (Oct. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET)
My power rankings make Utah State only a 17.5-point underdog, the biggest disparity of the week! The Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.
The market threw Utah State in the trash after it lost to FCS Idaho State in the opener as 15.5-point favorites. It was a misleading final as Utah State had a 407-241 yard edge but was minus-four in turnovers.
Idaho State is unbeaten and ranked in the Top 5 of my FCS power ratings, so I did not downgrade the Aggies that much.
After that game, Utah State almost upset Washington as 27.5-point underdogs, losing by only two points. After playing another ranked team in Utah last week, the Aggies beat a solid Troy team.
On the other side, Boise State is the highest-rated Group of Six school in my power rankings. However, it didn’t cover as large a home favorite against South Dakota a couple of weeks ago.
It’s tough getting a ton of margin consistently when Boise State runs a slow tempo that ranks No. 131 in plays per minute on offense.
Finally, it is tough to cover three touchdowns when Utah State is only allowing 22 points on defense this year, and again that includes games against Washington and Utah!
Army -2.5 (Oct. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET)
My power rankings make Army a 3.5-point favorite here, and I would play this to -3.
Army was a 3.5-point favorite vs. South Florida and a 3.5-point favorite at Temple last week. Both of those teams are rated higher than Louisiana Tech in my power ratings. Yet, Army is only a 2.5-point favorite here.
The Black Knights could easily be 3-0 entering this game but blew a 10-point lead with five minutes left against South Florida in Week 2. South Florida completed a 38-yard touchdown pass on fourth down in the final seconds.
What would this line be if that pass wasn’t completed? My hypothesis is at least -3 and likely -3.5.
On the other side, LT comes in off a bye and could get its quarterback, Blake Baker, back from injury, who missed the Baylor game.
However, I think Louisiana Tech’s statistical profile is too much influenced by an 80-6 win over Northwestern State in Week 1. Northwestern State ranks No. 123 (out of 128) in my FCS power ratings.
Finally, Kalshi has one of the best prices in the market if you want to trade Army under a key 3 number.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 UCLA up 3.0 points
UCLA covered the spread by 48.5 points on Saturday, one of the largest covers in recent college football history. The Bruins beat Maryland 54-3 as 2.5-point road favorites with a 475-181 yard edge.
Even more amazing, UCLA did it in three quarters, as it was scoreless after the first. Under new coach Bob Chesney, the Bruins are 4-0 ATS and have covered by an average of 18.3 points per game. Before the season, UCLA had a 3.5% chance to make the playoffs. That number is now 17%.
📈 Florida up 2.5 points
Most of the public were surprised to see No. 21 Florida favored by 4 points over No. 4 Mississippi last week. The Gators delivered on those expectations and then some in their 52-28 win. The Gators ran for 302 yards against a good Mississippi defensive front. Florida ranks No. 2 in the country, averaging 53.5 points per game. It is now at 60% to make the playoffs.
📈 Wake Forest up 2.5 points
A week after a solid fight vs. Miami, Wake Forest pulled off an outright upset over No. 16 Louisville as an 11-point underdog. Nothing was fluky, as Wake had a 6.6-5.4 yards-per-play edge and out-rushed Louisville 177-75. The Demon Deacons' season win totals the last two years have been 4.5 and 5.5. After a shocking nine-win season in 2025, head coach Jake Dickert is working his magic again.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 Maryland down 3.5 points
Maryland was an embarrassment on Saturday, losing 54-3 to UCLA as short home underdogs. Head coach Mike Locksley is all but fired, and it looked like Maryland quit in the second half. The market is already reacting this week: The Terrapins opened as 12.5-point underdogs at Nebraska and are now 14.5-point underdogs.
📉 Texas A&M down 2.5 points
Texas A&M lost 35-6 at LSU as 8-point underdogs. The box score was worse than the final as Texas A&M was outgained 506-197. Quarterback Marcel Reed completed just 10 of 26 passes for 106 yards and an interception. One year after starting the season 11-0 and making the playoffs, my projections are calling for A&M to finish 6-6 this year!
📉 Penn State down 2.5 points
Penn State blew a 17-0 lead at home to Wisconsin on Saturday, losing outright as a 9.5-point favorite. It was deserved considering the Nittany Lions got outgained 355-233 and lost despite a plus-two turnover margin.
Quarterback Rocco Becht completed only 12 of 29 passes for 114 yards and an interception. Penn State clearly missed star wide receiver Koby Howard, who's out indefinitely due to injury.
Last week’s look-ahead line saw PSU favored by 7.0 at Northwestern. Now the Nittany Lions are favored by only 2.5 (Northwestern was also upgraded for almost upsetting Indiana).
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