Week 4 has some absolutely filthy numbers on the board.
There are favorites I want no part of laying double digits with, underdogs getting points they probably shouldn’t be getting, and a couple of spreads where I’m planting my flag against the market.
I’ve gone through all 16 games to find my NFL against the spread picks, digging into what teams are actually doing well, where the box scores are lying, and which injuries can completely change a matchup.
Here’s where my NFL picks land for every game on the Week 4 slate.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 4
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Steelers vs  Browns |
-2.5 |
 Colts vs  Commanders |
+3.5 |
 Titans vs  Ravens |
+11.5 |
 Patriots vs  Bills |
-6.5 |
 Jets vs  Bears |
+3.5 |
 Jaguars vs  Bengals |
-2.5 |
 Cowboys vs  Texans |
+2.5 |
 Cardinals vs  Giants |
-1.5 |
 Rams vs  Eagles |
+3.5 |
 Packers vs  Buccaneers |
-3.5 |
 Dolphins vs  Vikings |
+10.5 |
 Chiefs vs  Raiders |
+4.5 |
 Chargers vs  Seahawks |
+7.5 |
 Broncos vs  49ers |
-2.5 |
 Lions vs  Panthers |
-3.5 |
 Falcons vs  Saints |
+2.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 4 NFL ATS picks
Steelers vs Browns: Steelers -2.5
Pittsburgh finally found some offensive stability against Cincinnati, averaging 6.0 yards per carry while allowing Aaron Rodgers to operate behind improved protection.
Cleveland’s offense remains the concern, and injuries along the offensive line make sustaining drives against Pittsburgh’s front even harder.
The Browns can keep this ugly, but below the key field goal I’m willing to lay it. Steelers -2.5 gets the nod.
Colts vs Commanders: Commanders +3.5
Indianapolis deserves respect after holding Houston to 237 total yards, but this neutral-site number has moved too far for me.
Washington was badly outgained by Seattle, yet Jayden Daniels is expected to travel and work toward returning, which could transform the offense.
The key is the hook. I don’t need Washington to be better than Indianapolis; I need this game to stay within a field goal.
Titans vs Ravens: Titans +11.5
Baltimore is unquestionably the better team, but laying nearly two touchdowns requires more trust in its defense than I currently have.
The Ravens have struggled to consistently get off the field, while Tennessee’s faster pace creates enough extra possessions for backdoor-cover opportunities.
This is entirely a price play. Baltimore can control the game and win comfortably while Tennessee still stays inside an inflated 11.5-point spread.
Not to mention, the tough schedule spot for the Ravens as they return home from Brazil.
Patriots vs Bills: Bills -6.5
New England is averaging only 12 points per game, and Drake Maye has already thrown six interceptions while taking nine sacks behind an increasingly banged-up line.
Buffalo’s defense has flaws, but Josh Allen doesn’t need a perfect outing when the Patriots repeatedly put their defense in bad spots.
The number matters here. I’ll happily lay less than a TD with the better team.
Jets vs Bears: Jets +3.5
Case Keenum was excellent against Philadelphia, but asking him to clear more than a field goal against this Jets defense is a different assignment.
New York’s running game is compromised by Breece Hall’s quad injury, yet Geno Smith has protected the football and kept the passing game functional.
Chicago may still win outright, but I don't believe the Keenum 'feel good' bump lasts through this week.
Jaguars vs Bengals: Bengals -2.5
Jacksonville has found ways to win without asking Trevor Lawrence to carry the offense, but that becomes harder when Joe Burrow is on the opposite sideline.
Cincinnati’s run defense has improved, which can push Lawrence into a higher-volume passing script than the Jaguars would prefer.
The Bengals have secondary injuries worth monitoring, but I’m comfortable backing the better quarterback at home while the number remains below three.
Cowboys vs Texans: Cowboys +2.5
Houston may get Nico Collins and Ed Ingram back, but I still need the Texans’ offense to prove it can consistently turn favorable matchups into points.
They’ve scored only 23 points over the last two weeks, while Dallas has a positive point differential despite facing Baltimore last Sunday.
The Cowboys’ defense is vulnerable, but Dak Prescott gives me the more functional offense. Getting +2.5 instead of laying it is enough for Dallas.
Cardinals vs Giants: Cardinals -1.5
Arizona finally expanded Jeremiyah Love’s workload, and he responded with 90 rushing yards while generating 48 of them after contact.
New York scored zero touchdowns against Tennessee and has now lost Jaxson Dart and Brian Burns, forcing major adjustments on both sides of the ball.
J.J. McCarthy won’t fix that in six days. With Arizona still below a field goal, I’ll lay the short road number.
Rams vs Eagles: Eagles +3.5
Philadelphia was awful Monday, but the market is now making us pay for watching that 27-7 loss with the spread pushed beyond a field goal.
Denver showed the blueprint against Matthew Stafford: increase pressure and his efficiency collapses. Philadelphia’s front is capable of recreating that problem without selling out its secondary.
I’ll buy the ugly Eagles performance at the right price.
Packers vs Buccaneers: Packers -3.5
Baker Mayfield’s thumb injury changes this matchup more than any schematic wrinkle. Tampa Bay is preparing rookie Jalon Daniels for his first NFL start.
Daniels’ debut consisted of an interception without a completion, while Green Bay gets extra preparation after playing on Thursday in Week 3.
I don’t love laying hooks on the road, but the quarterback gap is too large.
Dolphins vs Vikings: Dolphins +10.5
Minnesota’s defense is nasty, leading the NFL in third-down defense at 22.7%, and Miami just lost De’Von Achane for the season.
But this spread has now crossed 10 while the Vikings’ own offense sits at the bottom of the league in yards per play, with Justin Jefferson also nursing an ankle injury.
Minnesota should win. Covering 10.5 requires separation its offense hasn’t consistently shown. I’ll take Miami.
Chiefs vs Raiders: Raiders +4.5
Kirk Cousins has nine touchdown passes through three games, and Las Vegas has Brock Bowers back as the middle-of-the-field matchup problem this offense needs.
The Raiders’ offensive line has also taken a major step forward in pass protection, giving Cousins enough time to attack a Kansas City secondary replacing key starters.
I still trust Patrick Mahomes to win. I don’t trust Kansas City to clear 4.5 on the road.
Chargers vs Seahawks: Chargers +7.5
Seattle was the side I wanted at -6.5. At -7.5, the bet changes even though my opinion of the teams doesn’t.
The Seahawks are allowing the fewest yards per play and massively outgained Washington, while Los Angeles somehow lost in Buffalo despite forcing five turnovers.
Seattle is better, but crossing both seven and the hook is expensive. I’ll take Justin Herbert and 7.5 points.
Broncos vs 49ers: 49ers -2.5
Denver’s pressure package is the biggest threat here, but San Francisco has gone three games without allowing a sack and leads the NFL at 7.35 yards per play.
The 49ers also lead the league at +0.32 EPA per play and are finishing drives with a 90% red-zone touchdown rate.
Denver can make this uncomfortable, but -2.5 keeps us below the key field goal. I’m backing San Francisco’s efficiency.
Lions vs Panthers: Lions -3.5
Bryce Young has faced the NFL’s third-highest pressure rate, and now he gets a Detroit defense blitzing at the third-highest clip and generating top-eight pressure.
Carolina is also beaten up at receiver, running back, and in the secondary, exactly where Detroit’s deep group of skill players can punish thin depth.
The hook is uncomfortable, but the matchup is too clean. Detroit -3.5 is one of my favorite favorites.
Falcons vs Saints: Falcons +2.5
Michael Penix Jr.’s return gave Atlanta’s offense balance again, while the Falcons’ front generated 19 pressures in the blowout win over Green Bay.
They now get extended rest before facing a New Orleans that's dealing with injuries along the defensive line.
The Saints can attack Atlanta’s secondary, but I prefer the healthier offensive trajectory and extra preparation.
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