The New England Patriots look terrible, and it won't get any easier against Josh Allen. I'm comfortably fading Drake Maye & Co. in my Patriots vs. Bills prediction.
The Buffalo Bills are 6.5-point favorites at home in Highmark Stadium and should put away a struggling Patriots team with some major issues on offense.
Tap into all of my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 4 below.
TOP Pick
Patriots vs Bills prediction: Bills -6.5
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account 
After watching the New England Patriots through three weeks, there's no way I could, in my right mind, put my hard-earned money on them against the Buffalo Bills.
Drake Maye has been a complete tire fire. He hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 1 and already has six interceptions, while the Patriots are averaging an NFL-worst 12 points per game and rank 22nd in total offense. Suffice it to say, things haven’t gone according to plan in New England.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen is the overwhelming favorite in the NFL MVP odds. The Bills are also coming off their best defensive performance of the season against the Los Angeles Chargers and enter this matchup a perfect 3-0 against the spread.
Fire up the Bills with confidence and play this to 57%.
COVERS INTEL: Buffalo is averaging more than 400 yards per game and ranks second in the NFL in total EPA, making this one an easy decision for me.
Patriots vs Bills combo
While the Patriots' offense has yet to show a sign of life, the defense has been serviceable. New England ranks fifth in total defense and seventh overall in success percentage, which means they can limit Allen enough to cover the Under.
Elsewhere, I'm expecting James Cook to get more red-zone usage - his five carries inside the 10 are 13th in football. Positive regression incoming.
Patriots vs Bills combo
- Buffalo Bills -6.5
- Bills/Patriots Under 48.5
- Jame Cook anytime TD
Patriots vs Bills touchdown scorer: James Cook
Cook already has two touchdowns this season, and the volume suggests there are plenty more to come. He's left some meat on the bone with Josh Allen vulturing a few scoring opportunities, but the workload remains extremely encouraging.
Against the Patriots, Cook should see similar volume inside the 20, and that’s all I need to back him heading into Week 4.
Averaging just around 20 totes per game against a defense allowing teams to score at a 62% clip in the red zone, Cook is as safe a bet as you're going to get in this game.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 0-2, -1.00 units
- Combos: 0-2, -0.20 units
Patriots vs Bills odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots +6.5 (48%) | Bills -6.5 (53%)
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (51%) | Under 48.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 27% | Bills 73%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
More Covers NFL trading tools
Patriots vs Bills weather
It's a perfect day for football on Sunday, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures reaching 64 degrees.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Bills trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Patriots' last five games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Bills.
How to watch Patriots vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Patriots vs Bills latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
