College Football AI Predictions Week 5: ATS Picks & Score Predictions for Every Game

Georgia's 41-13 win over Oklahoma sets a high bar for Vanderbilt's trip to Athens. The model lands on another 41-point afternoon for the Bulldogs, but gives the Commodores enough offense to stay inside +24.5. A 41-19 Georgia win produces a 22-point margin and 60 combined points, putting Vanderbilt on the spread side and Over 51.5 on the total.

Notre Dame gets the road win in Chapel Hill, but the spread leaves little room for error. After beating Purdue 49-10, the Irish are projected to win 33-11 against North Carolina. That clears -21.5 by just half a point, making the cover a narrow call. The total offers a little more separation: 44 projected points fall below 45.5.

Miami's offense gets a much tougher assignment than last week's 52-3 win over Central Michigan. Clemson held California to 10 points on the road, but the model still has the Hurricanes scoring 34 in Death Valley. A 34-17 result barely gets Miami past -16.5, so the spread is a thin lean. The 51-point projection also points to Over 46.5.

Iowa delivered the exact 20-19 win our model projected against Michigan, and the Hawkeyes are getting plenty of points again. This time, the forecast favors Ohio State 24-17 after the Buckeyes beat Illinois 42-19. That seven-point margin leaves a substantial cushion at Iowa +14.5. With the Hawkeyes keeping the score down in this projection, Under 45.5 is the total pick.

Indiana survived a six-point game against Northwestern, and the model expects a more comfortable trip to Rutgers. The Hoosiers are projected to win 38-17, a significant step up in difficulty for the Scarlet Knights after their 58-7 win over Howard. Even so, a 21-point margin leaves Rutgers inside +24.5. The combined 55 points put the total just below 56.5.

Mississippi State has already beaten South Carolina and Missouri, and the model gives the Bulldogs another competitive SEC showing. Alabama is still the winner at 37-31, following its own 49-18 victory over the Gamecocks. Alabama -5.5 covers by only half a point in that projection. The more pronounced difference is on the total: 68 projected points comfortably exceed 60.5.

Florida's 52-28 win over Ole Miss was emphatic, but the model sees a much tighter game in Columbia. Missouri lost 31-24 at Mississippi State and now draws a Florida team projected to escape 30-29. That one-point margin makes Missouri +5.5 the ATS selection. The projected 59 points also edge over 57.5, giving the total a smaller cushion than the spread.

TCU returns home to face a ranked BYU team after losing 21-13 at UCF. Our model favors BYU 24-20 in Fort Worth, leaving the Horned Frogs inside the +6.5 spread. This is a pick for TCU to stay close, with the Cougars still taking the game outright. A combined 44 points also makes Under 47.5 the total selection.

LSU just held Texas A&M to six points, and the model sees another dominant defensive result against McNeese. The Tigers are projected to win 55-3, leaving McNeese on the covering side of an enormous +54.5 spread by 2.5 points. The Cowboys get the ATS pick despite the projected lopsided loss. The projected 58 points stay below 61.5.

Texas Tech scored 49 against Sam Houston, while Colorado managed 13 in its loss at Baylor. The model brings the Red Raiders' scoring down on the road but still gives them a two-touchdown win, 31-17. That clears -13.5 in Boulder by just half a point. The 48-point total supports Under 50.5, giving the Under more room than the spread pick.

Tennessee's 20-17 loss to Texas was a missed opportunity, and the model gives the Volunteers a home rebound against Auburn. The Tigers beat Vanderbilt 21-15, but this projection has Tennessee reaching 31 while holding Auburn to 20. An 11-point win clears the -7.5 spread. The combined 51 points also land below 54.5, pairing the Vols with the Under.

Both teams are trying to recover from home losses, with USC falling to Oregon and Washington losing to Minnesota. The model gives the Trojans the stronger response, a 34-21 win at the Coliseum. USC's 13-point margin clears -9.5, while the 55-point sum stays below 57.5. That calls for a better defensive showing than the Trojans' 41-point concession to Oregon.

Houston scored 42 in its road win over Georgia Southern, but UCF presents a different test after holding TCU to 13. The model still favors the Cougars 28-24, while giving the Knights a generous cushion at +11.5. The total is much closer: 52 projected points sit just half a point above 51.5. UCF is the clearer score-based lean here.

SMU is projected to match the 34 points it scored against Missouri State, this time while allowing Boston College just 14. That would be a comfortable win for the Mustangs, but a 20-point margin falls 1.5 points short of -21.5. Boston College gets the ATS pick at +21.5. The more decisive gap is Under 55.5 against a 48-point projection.

Boise State's 32-7 win at Western Michigan offers a strong result to build on against Utah State. The Aggies also won last week, holding Troy to 10 points, and the model gives them enough resistance to cover +20.5 in a 31-14 loss. Boise State remains the clear straight-up choice. A projected 45 points also supports Under 51.5.

Kentucky scored 45 against South Alabama, while South Carolina surrendered 49 at Alabama. Despite those contrasting results, the model favors the Gamecocks at home, 28-22. That six-point margin clears South Carolina -3.5 and makes this one of the featured slate's picks against a ranked team. The combined 50 points put the total below 54.5.

Penn State's loss to Wisconsin gives Friday night's trip to Northwestern added urgency. The Wildcats stayed within six points of Indiana last week, and our model gives them another close game here: Penn State 24, Northwestern 21. The Nittany Lions clear -2.5 by only half a point. A 45-point projection puts Under 46.5 on the card as another modest lean.

The Little Brown Jug matchup gets one of the closest projections on the featured slate. Michigan is picked to recover from its 20-19 loss to Iowa with a 22-21 win at Minnesota, which just beat Washington 27-24. The straight-up and ATS selections split: Michigan wins, but Minnesota +5.5 covers. At 43 points, the score sits just below the 43.5 total.

Air Force is projected to follow its 36-33 win over Nevada with another productive rivalry game. Navy lost 24-20 at UAB, and the model has the Midshipmen falling 30-25 in Colorado Springs. That five-point margin makes Air Force -3.5 the ATS selection. The 55-point projection also clears 45.5, producing an Over pick despite the matchup's run-heavy offenses.