Underdogs pulled off four outright wins in Week 1, and my NFL moneyline picks feature just as many potential upsets on the latest slate.
Spearheaded by Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars licking their chops at silencing the Mile High faithful, here are my favorite NFL picks for Week 2.
Last week's record: 11-5 for +2.75 units
NFL moneyline picks for Week 2
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Lions vs  Bills |
68% |
 Eagles vs  Titans |
76% |
 Steelers vs  Patriots |
33% |
 Vikings vs  Bears |
68% |
 Panthers vs  Falcons |
55% |
 Packers vs  Jets |
36% |
 Saints vs  Ravens |
79% |
 Bengals vs  Texans |
60% |
 Browns vs  Buccaneers |
78% |
 Jaguars vs  Broncos |
42% |
 Raiders vs  Chargers |
28% |
 Seahawks vs  Cardinals |
67% |
 Dolphins vs  49ers |
90% |
 Commanders vs  Cowboys |
66% |
 Colts vs  Chiefs |
74% |
 Giants vs  Rams |
75% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 2 NFL moneyline picks
Lions vs. Bills: Bills (68%)
Buffalo’s offense is coming off a 400+ yard performance against Houston’s elite stop unit, and now Josh Allen gets to tear into a Lions defense that remains without star safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.
Expect the Bills to make a statement in their new digs.
Eagles vs. Titans: Eagles (76%)
Tennessee averaged just 3.6 yards per pass play in its Week 1 stinker against the Jets, as the Robert Saleh era is off to a messy start.
Growing concerns around Cam Ward will only grow further when he steps on the field opposite Vic Fangio and the Eagles’ D.
It’s never pretty with this Philly team, but all the Eagles do is stack wins.
Steelers vs. Patriots: Steelers (33%)
Drake Maye has taken a tumble down the NFL MVP odds board following his three-interception disasterclass on opening night.
As stagnant as the Steelers’ offense is, their D got significantly better over the offseason, adding DC Patrick Graham, as well as Jaquan Brisker and Jamel Dean in the secondary.
The Falcons couldn’t find an answer in Week 1, and the Patriots’ offense will face a similar fate without WR1 A.J. Brown.
Vikings vs. Bears: Bears (68%)
Ben Johnson’s magic was on display against Carolina, with the Bears averaging 7.9 yards per play, Caleb Williams finally looking like he’s arrived, and a two-headed monster emerging in the backfield.
As weak as their defense is, a matchup against Carson Wentz should ease some of those concerns at Soldier Field. I have all the respect in the world for Brian Flores’ defensive scheme, but this Bears O-line will hold up far better than Green Bay’s did.
Panthers vs. Falcons: Panthers (55%)
Carolina has won three straight matchups against Atlanta, all coming as underdogs of 4.5 points or more.
It’s easy to have second thoughts about a team that just surrendered a 50-burger, but there are no longer any questions about Bryce Young being a franchise quarterback.
Meanwhile, Cooper Rush had trouble completing passes beyond five yards last week. The Panthers will bounce back in the ATL.
Packers vs. Jets: Jets (36%)
At this point, how can anyone trust Green Bay with a double-digit lead?
The Packers’ O-line was a complete mess against Minnesota, and the Jets heated up the QB at the third-highest rate in Week 1.
With Geno Smith having a nice mix of weapons at his disposal, I'm taking Gang Green to prevail outright as 3.5-point underdogs. Matt LaFleur, get ready to learn “hot seat,” buddy.
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Saints vs. Ravens: Ravens (79%)
As our very own Jason Logan noted in his weekly Bet Now, Bet Later column, “The Saints were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker.”
NOLA will have serious trouble keeping pace with Baltimore’s offense in this one, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ravens cruise to another blowout.
Bengals vs. Texans: Texans (60%)
Cincinnati forced four turnovers against the Bucs last week, yet the Bengals won by just six points.
Although the Texans’ vaunted defense wasn’t so elite against Josh Allen & Co., I’m willing to give Houston the benefit of the doubt. Before falling to Buffalo at home, the Texans had rattled off five straight wins at NRG Stadium.
Browns vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers (78%)
Todd Monken “anticipates” that Deshaun Watson will be the team’s starter next week in Tampa Bay, which tells you all you need to know about the state of the Browns.
Baker Mayfield will need to cut down on his reckless turnovers if the Bucs want to make the playoffs this year, but a matchup against Cleveland is essentially a free space for every team.
Jaguars vs. Broncos: Jaguars (42%)
Denver missed 28 tackles during this ugly loss in Kansas City, and now its schedule gets no easier over the next five games:
vs. Jaguars, vs. Rams, vs. 49ers, at Chargers, vs. Seahawks.
Jacksonville prevailed in the Mile High City last year, winning 34-20 as road dogs. Now, we’re getting a similar Kalshi probability heading into the rematch, with the Broncos on a short week.
Trevor Lawrence boasts a 111.5 passer rating over his last nine regular-season starts, so give me the Jags all the way to 50%.
Raiders vs. Chargers: Raiders (28%)
If this game were played in Vegas, would LAC still be a touchdown favorite? Does SoFi Stadium count as ANY sort of home-field advantage for the Chargers, especially when much of SoCal still bleeds Raiders silver and black?
Las Vegas is finally utilizing Ashton Jeanty properly under Klint Kubiak (looking at you, Chip Kelly), and its defense racked up five sacks against Miami.
Maxx Crosby & Co. will have their way with a Chargers O-line that couldn’t keep Justin Herbert upright whatsoever in Week 1.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals: Seahawks (67%)
Seattle’s defense picked up where it left off against New England, and with Nick Emmanwori potentially ready to suit up in the desert, look out.
I’d usually have serious second thoughts about backing Drew Lock under center, but Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett finished 28th in QBR last season.
Seattle hasn’t lost to Arizona since 2021, and this lopsided rivalry will remain that way.
Dolphins vs. 49ers: 49ers (90%)
San Francisco’s defense forced eight QB hits and held last year’s No. 1 offense to just seven points in Melbourne.
When healthy (a tough ask, I know), the 49ers remain a Super Bowl contender, and they'll have no problem blowing out the worst team in the league.
Commanders vs. Cowboys: Cowboys (66%)
The real play is on the Over, but the Cowboys' offense should rack up more points against a Commanders D that surrendered three plays of 40+ yards in Philly.
Give me Dak Prescott's loaded receiving corps to lead the Cowboys to a dub in a high-scoring shootout.
Colts vs. Chiefs: Chiefs (74%)
Defenses have found success against Daniel Jones and the Colts’ offense by bringing pressure, and Steve Spagnuolo did exactly that to shut them down in the second half of last year’s matchup.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry just tore the Colts’ defense apart like butter, and Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker II are set to do the same on SNF.
Giants vs. Rams: Rams (75%)
Sean McVay’s team has won 72% of the time following a loss, and they’ve only started a season 0-2 once under McVay.
The preseason Super Bowl favorites will have a tough pill to swallow with Myles Garrett sidelined for the next while, but Aaron Donald’s much-anticipated return should help soften the blow.
LA’s unorthodox travel plans to Australia completely blew up in their face, but there’s no reason to panic ahead of the Rams’ home opener.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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