Underdogs won outright four times in Week 1, and my NFL moneyline picks feature just as many possible upsets at prediction market apps.
The early Sunday slate was not my friend in Week 2, but I mostly made up for those misses with a strong 4 p.m. group and an overtime Chiefs win in prime time.
My Week 2 NFL picks wrap with a sizeable favorite on Monday Night Football, as I expect the Rams to take care of the Giants.
Last week's record: 11-5 for +2.75 units
NFL moneyline picks for Week 2
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
Result |
|---|---|---|
 Lions vs  Bills |
68% |
✅ |
 Eagles vs  Titans |
76% |
✅ |
 Steelers vs  Patriots |
33% |
❌ |
 Vikings vs  Bears |
68% |
❌ |
 Panthers vs  Falcons |
55% |
✅ |
 Packers vs  Jets |
36% |
❌ |
 Saints vs  Ravens |
79% |
❌ |
 Bengals vs  Texans |
60% |
❌ |
 Browns vs  Buccaneers |
78% |
❌ |
 Jaguars vs  Broncos |
42% |
❌ |
 Raiders vs  Chargers |
28% |
✅ |
 Seahawks vs  Cardinals |
67% |
✅ |
 Dolphins vs  49ers |
90% |
✅ |
 Commanders vs  Cowboys |
66% |
✅ |
 Colts vs  Chiefs |
74% |
✅ |
 Giants vs  Rams |
75% |
❓ |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET
✅ Lions vs. Bills: Bills (68%)
Buffalo’s offense is coming off a 400+ yard performance against Houston’s elite stop unit, and now Josh Allen gets to tear into a Lions defense that remains without star safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.
Expect the Bills to make a statement in their new digs.
Read Jason Logan's full Lions vs. Bills predictions.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
✅ Eagles vs. Titans: Eagles (76%)
Tennessee averaged just 3.6 yards per pass play in its Week 1 stinker against the Jets, as the Robert Saleh era is off to a messy start.
Growing concerns around Cam Ward will only grow further when he steps on the field opposite Vic Fangio and the Eagles’ D.
It’s never pretty with this Philly team, but all the Eagles do is stack wins.
Read Neil Parker's full Eagles vs. Titans predictions.
❌ Steelers vs. Patriots: Steelers (33%)
Drake Maye has taken a tumble down the NFL MVP odds board following his three-interception disasterclass on opening night.
As stagnant as the Steelers’ offense is, their D got significantly better over the offseason, adding DC Patrick Graham, as well as Jaquan Brisker and Jamel Dean in the secondary.
The Falcons couldn’t find an answer in Week 1, and the Patriots’ offense will face a similar fate without WR1 A.J. Brown.
Read Neil Parker's full Steelers vs. Patriots predictions.
❌Vikings vs. Bears: Bears (68%)
Ben Johnson’s magic was on display against Carolina, with the Bears averaging 7.9 yards per play, Caleb Williams finally looking like he’s arrived, and a two-headed monster emerging in the backfield.
As weak as their defense is, a matchup against Carson Wentz should ease some of those concerns at Soldier Field. I have all the respect in the world for Brian Flores’ defensive scheme, but this Bears O-line will hold up far better than Green Bay’s did.
Read Geoff Clark's full Vikings vs. Bears predictions.
✅ Panthers vs. Falcons: Panthers (55%)
Carolina has won three straight matchups against Atlanta, all coming as underdogs of 4.5 points or more.
It’s easy to have second thoughts about a team that just surrendered a 50-burger, but there are no longer any questions about Bryce Young being a franchise quarterback.
Meanwhile, Cooper Rush had trouble completing passes beyond five yards last week. The Panthers will bounce back in the ATL.
Read Shawn Krest's full Panthers vs. Falcons predictions.
❌ Packers vs. Jets: Jets (36%)
At this point, how can anyone trust Green Bay with a double-digit lead?
The Packers’ O-line was a complete mess against Minnesota, and the Jets heated up the QB at the third-highest rate in Week 1.
With Geno Smith having a nice mix of weapons at his disposal, I'm taking Gang Green to prevail outright as 3.5-point underdogs. Matt LaFleur, get ready to learn “hot seat,” buddy.
Read Ed Scimia's full Packers vs. Jets predictions.
More Covers NFL trading tools
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❌ Saints vs. Ravens: Ravens (79%)
As our very own Jason Logan noted in his weekly Bet Now, Bet Later column, “The Saints were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker.”
NOLA will have serious trouble keeping pace with Baltimore’s offense in this one, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ravens cruise to another blowout.
Read Geoff Clark's full Saints vs. Ravens predictions.
❌ Bengals vs. Texans: Texans (60%)
Cincinnati forced four turnovers against the Bucs last week, yet the Bengals won by just six points.
Although the Texans’ vaunted defense wasn’t so elite against Josh Allen & Co., I’m willing to give Houston the benefit of the doubt. Before falling to Buffalo at home, the Texans had rattled off five straight wins at NRG Stadium.
Read Geoff Clark's full Bengals vs. Texans predictions.
❌ Browns vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers (78%)
Todd Monken “anticipates” that Deshaun Watson will be the team’s starter next week in Tampa Bay, which tells you all you need to know about the state of the Browns.
Baker Mayfield will need to cut down on his reckless turnovers if the Bucs want to make the playoffs this year, but a matchup against Cleveland is essentially a free space for every team.
Read Quinn Allen's full Browns vs. Buccaneers predictions.
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
❌ Jaguars vs. Broncos: Jaguars (42%)
Denver missed 28 tackles during its ugly loss in Kansas City, and now its schedule gets no easier over the next five games:
vs. Jaguars, vs. Rams, vs. 49ers, at Chargers, vs. Seahawks.
Jacksonville prevailed in the Mile High City last year, winning 34-20 as road dogs. Now, we’re getting a similar Kalshi probability heading into the rematch, with the Broncos on a short week.
Trevor Lawrence boasts a 111.5 passer rating over his last nine regular-season starts, so give me the Jags all the way to 50%.
Read Sam Farley's full Jaguars vs. Broncos predictions.
✅ Raiders vs. Chargers: Raiders (28%)
If this game were played in Vegas, would LAC still be a touchdown favorite? Does SoFi Stadium count as ANY sort of home-field advantage for the Chargers, especially when much of SoCal still bleeds Raiders silver and black?
Las Vegas is finally utilizing Ashton Jeanty properly under Klint Kubiak (looking at you, Chip Kelly), and its defense racked up five sacks against Miami.
Maxx Crosby & Co. will have their way with a Chargers O-line that couldn’t keep Justin Herbert upright whatsoever in Week 1.
Read Tom Oldfield's full Raiders vs. Chargers predictions.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
✅ Seahawks vs. Cardinals: Seahawks (67%)
Seattle’s defense picked up where it left off against New England, and with Nick Emmanwori potentially ready to suit up in the desert, look out.
I’d usually have serious second thoughts about backing Drew Lock under center, but Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett finished 28th in QBR last season.
Seattle hasn’t lost to Arizona since 2021, and this lopsided rivalry will remain that way.
Read Shawn Krest's full Seahawks vs. Cardinals predictions.
✅ Dolphins vs. 49ers: 49ers (90%)
San Francisco’s defense forced eight QB hits and held last year’s No. 1 offense to just seven points in Melbourne.
When healthy (a tough ask, I know), the 49ers remain a Super Bowl contender, and they'll have no problem blowing out the worst team in the league.
Read Nick Galaida's full Dolphins vs. 49ers predictions.
✅ Commanders vs. Cowboys: Cowboys (66%)
The real play is on the Over, but the Cowboys' offense should rack up more points against a Commanders D that surrendered three plays of 40+ yards in Philly.
Give me Dak Prescott's loaded receiving corps to lead the Cowboys to a dub in a high-scoring shootout.
Read Jason Logan's full Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions.
Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET
✅ Colts vs. Chiefs: Chiefs (74%)
Defenses have found success against Daniel Jones and the Colts’ offense by bringing pressure, and Steve Spagnuolo did exactly that to shut them down in the second half of last year’s matchup.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry just tore the Colts’ defense apart like butter, and Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III are set to do the same on SNF.
Read Jason Logan's full Colts vs. Chiefs predictions.
Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET
Giants vs. Rams: Rams (75%)
Sean McVay’s team has won 72% of the time following a loss, and they’ve only started a season 0-2 once under McVay.
The preseason Super Bowl favorites will have a tough pill to swallow with Myles Garrett sidelined for the next while, but Aaron Donald’s much-anticipated return should help soften the blow.
LA’s unorthodox travel plans to Australia completely blew up in their face, but there’s no reason to panic ahead of the Rams’ home opener.
Read Josh Inglis' full Giants vs. Rams predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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