The Atlanta Falcons trade the rain for Spain in Week 9 as they travel to Madrid for a matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Atlanta suffered a water-logged loss in Tampa Bay on Sunday, lugging a 1-3 slide across the pond to face a red-hot Cincinnati squad opening as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite Sunday.
My Bengals vs. Falcons predictions compare the contrast in current form against the NFL markets, giving you my early leans and NFL picks for this international showcase on November 8.
Bengals vs Falcons predictions
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Early Bengals vs Falcons spread pick: Bengals moneyline
The Cincinnati Bengals are laying 3.5 points in Madrid, and even with their current success, I’m avoiding the half-point hook and just taking the Cincy to win outright on Sunday morning.
This offense is clicking, especially the passing game. The Bengals have scored 30+ points in three straight games, owning the top EPA per play rating since Week 5 by a large margin (0.216 vs. 0.163 New England at No. 2).
Granted, two-thirds of those results have come against the likes of Miami and Tennessee, along with a bye in Week 6.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a strange game in Tampa Bay. Hard rain influenced the outcome and helped prompt four Falcons' interceptions against a very strong Bucs defense. I’m not putting too much stock in that 16-0 loss.
Cincinnati’s defense isn’t as stout and has given up gains and points to offenses far weaker than the Falcons. I see the Bengals winning, but that extra hook on the FG has me leaning moneyline.
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Early Bengals vs Falcons total pick: Under 51.5
This total opened as low as 49.5 points and is ticking up to 51.5, going through the key number of 51.
A lot of things point to the Over, given how hot the Cincinnati’s offense is right now. That said, the market move has me eyeing the Under if this total keeps climbing.
Atlanta’s best plan of attack is to keep Joe Burrow & Co. on the sideline and not turn this into a shootout. The Falcons need to play a paced offense with emphasis on the run, picking up short gains and eating up clock.
We do have two strong pass rushes on the field, with Atlanta and Cincinnati sitting Top 9 in pressure rate despite neither defense blitzing much.
It’s going to be a weird week for both sides, traveling with the time change and playing on the strange soccer surface. I’m putting a pin in the Under, waiting for more points before I buy back.
Bengals vs Falcons odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Bengals vs Falcons spread: Falcons +3.5
- Bengals vs Falcons moneyline: Bengals 61%, Falcons 39%
- Bengals vs Falcons Over/Under: 51.5
How to watch Bengals vs Falcons
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET
- City: Madrid, Spain
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
- TV: NFL Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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