NFL Picks

The Bills’ downfield attack will be limited, with the playbook shortened due to the injuries at WR. That leaves tight ends and Khalil Shakir as top options. The Broncos’ passing offense isn’t explosive, either. Quarterback Bo Nix sits near the bottom of most “air yards” statistics and Denver relies more on yards after the catch. In fact, the Broncos are the third best YAC passing game in the NFL and face a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest YAC to receivers on the year. Denver will go after a suspect Buffalo run stop, hoping to chip away and set up easier third downs, while controlling possession. The Broncos’ rushing attack has improved in the home stretch and runs behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. We’ve seen Buffalo have a tough time cracking top defenses like the Broncos. The Bills managed only 12 points against the Eagles, 19 points versus Houston, and 23 points in a close win over Cleveland.

Not only do the Bills hit the highway on a short week for the Divisional Round, star quarterback Josh Allen took his licks against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Allen has another tall order in front of him this week with the Denver defense ranking fifth in defensive DVOA while allowing the lowest success rate and pacing the NFL in sacks. I also don’t trust the Bills run defense. Buffalo allowed 154 yards on just 23 carries (6.7 per tote) to the Jags after finishing the regular season ranked 31st in run defense DVOA and EPA per rush.

San Fran is in tough without tight end George Kittle (Achilles), with the Niners ranking 26th in rush offensive DVOA across the six games he missed during the regular season. Of course, San Francisco also just lost to Seattle 13-3 in Week 18, and the Seahawks send out the best defense in the NFL. In addition to being rested and pacing the league in EPA per play and defensive DVOA, the Seahawks also allow the lowest EPA and fewest yards per rush. I like the Seattle defense slowing down the San Fran offense again while putting enough points on the board to cover the number at Lumen Field on Saturday.

These NFC West rivals clashed in a battle for the top seed in Week 18, with the Seahawks winning a 13-3 grinder.

The Niners managed only nine first downs and 173 total yards on offense while Seattle dominated possession for almost 38 minutes, anchored in a rushing attack going for 180 yards.

The venue swings to the Pacific Northwest for the Divisional Round. The 49ers are also missing star TE George Kittle, who suffered an Achilles injury in the Wild Card Round.

If you think we’ll see more of the same from these divisional rivals, grab the Under 46.5 now. The next key stop will be 44 points, and books will move fast if one-sided money shows on the Under.

Houston ended the regular season fourth in the league in DVOA while ranking second in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, New England was ninth in total DVOA while ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. I have more faith in CJ Stroud moving the ball against a vulnerable Pats secondary than I do in Drake Maye having success against an elite Houston pass defense. Getting points with arguably the better team is tough to turn down here so grab this number before it goes below that key number of 3.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 131.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Bears are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games. Their offense has been churning out yards on the ground while their defense does a great job forcing turnovers. They'll have a significant home-field advantage in this game with Soldier Field rocking on a freezing and windy night, and the Rams making two cross-country flights over the week. Rams superstar QB Matthew Stafford has struggled in cold-weather games, and eight of his nine picks this year (reg season and playoffs) have come on the road. He's also banged up and will be playing with a sprained index finger on his throwing hand.

I could see this total coming back down later in the week if Stafford is limited in practice and the weather turns worse in Chicago.