NFL Picks

The Texans allow very few touchdowns to receivers, and their pass rush will be after Justin Herbert early and often.

That means we should see an increased touch count for Omarion Hampton, especially with Kimani Vidal questionable for Saturday's game. In addition, he could see an uptick in dump-offs as Herbert looks to avoid getting sacked.

Hampton has scored in two of his three outings since returning from injury, and dominated the red zone touches in those games. Against a Texans defense that ranks 23rd in red zone scoring, he's the best chance for us to cash in on an anytime touchdown for the Bolts.

 

CJ Stroud has thrown just five touchdown passes in his four games since returning from injury, while the majority of Houston's red zone touches in that span have gone to the running backs.

With Woody Marks cleared to play this week, he presents excellent value at +170 to score a touchdown. The Chargers allow the 11th-most yards per carry and 11th-most touchdowns to opposing backs this season, and are prone to big outside runs. 

Marks dominated the red zone touches against the Chiefs, and found the endzone. I see a similar outcome here as the Texans look to protect Stroud and attack the weak point of the Charger defense. 

Baltimore will start Tyler Huntley on Saturday night. Expect the Ravens to take pressure off their backup passer by relying on Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry. Henry has logged at least 18 carries in eight of his last 10 games. That includes Huntley's previous start this season when Henry rushed 21 times for 71 yards versus the Bears in Week 8. The 247-pound bruiser thrives in cold weather games and has churned out more than 90 yards in his last three contests. He should get plenty of work against a Packers defense that has allowed 29.8 rush attempts per game over the last four weeks.

The line moved from Baltimore +2.5 to +4.5 after Lamar Jackson was designated as doubtful. That's puzzling since it already seemed highly unlikely he would play and the Packers now have less motivation after clinching a playoff spot due to a Lions loss on Christmas Day. Keep in mind that Jackson has been less than full strength due to multiple injuries and backup Tyler Huntley is experienced and played well when he started against Chicago earlier this year. Huntley won't be asked to do too much since the Ravens will lean on Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry and their improved D (fifth in the league in defensive success rate since Wk 6) to keep things close. 

I don’t love backing Tampa Bay, but Bucky Irving’s price in this matchup is hard to ignore with everything on the line for the Buccaneers. Sean Tucker has taken on a more defined goal-line role, but it’s largely been limited to one-yard plunges and three carries per game. Irving, on the other hand, is handling 20-plus touches in a run-first offense that benefits from Miami having to respect the passing game, leading to softer boxes. That volume gives him a strong scoring profile, especially against a Dolphins defense that allowed six touchdowns on six red-zone trips to Joe Burrow last week. At this number, Irving has well over a 50% chance to find the end zone.

The Dolphins offense is much more versatile with Quinn Ewers under center. Before benching Tua, Miami was actively trying to keep the ball out of his hands. Ewers, however, threw for 260 yards last week – mark Tua had passed only twice all season. Tampa’s defense is dreadful and this once mighty run-stop unit is broken. Achane goes big. Ewers stretches the field. And the Bucs will be scoreboard watching. They could think about pulling their starters in the second half should they be up big and Carolina be down to Seattle, protecting themselves for a Week 18 NFC South title game.

Mac Hollins’ stat line last week was easy to overlook with Stefon Diggs grabbing the headlines, but the usage was real. Hollins finished with 69 yards on seven catches and nine targets, quietly playing a key role in the passing game. He also cashed a $300K incentive with his 40th reception and now sits just four catches away from another $400K bonus. This sets up as a favorable spot for an offense that typically handles bad teams, and New England’s red-zone tendencies only add to the appeal. The Patriots’ running backs have accounted for zero touchdowns over the last three games in the red zone despite nine red-zone carries and three red-zone targets, forcing scoring equity back to the passing game. With New England capable of hanging a big number on Sunday, Hollins’ volume and motivation make him a strong plus-money consideration.

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. With a top-tier 29.7% Red Zone Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry rates as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.. Hunter Henry has notched a massive 43.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.. Hunter Henry grades out in the 87th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.35 per game.

Make this price make sense. Warren is coming off a two-touchdown performance with 143 rushing yards against Detroit, continues to handle the majority of the workload, and owns the red-zone carries. He was priced as short as +110 for a TD just two games ago, and this number sits roughly 70 cents longer than where he closed last week. The matchup only strengthens the case. Cleveland isn’t a dominant offense capable of forcing negative game script, and the Browns were just gashed by James Cook for 117 yards and two scores on 16 carries. With plenty on the line for Pittsburgh and DK Metcalf sidelined, the Steelers may lean even more on Warren, who has been their most reliable offensive weapon entering Week 17. Even at +150, this would still be worth a bet.

The Over is 5-2 in games in which the Steelers are the road team and with such a low total, we can see both teams score enough to cover.

With extra scrutiny around his mood and future in Cincinnati, Burrow had a field day last weekend against the Miami Dolphins. He racked up 309 passing yards that afternoon with four TDs, and a repeat performance is on the cards on Sunday given Arizona’s defensive flaws.

The Bengals have scored 32+ points in three of their past four contests, and I’ll gladly lay the points here, with the slumping Cards just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games despite some gritty efforts from Jacoby Brissett. There are also 2026 NFL Draft considerations here for the visitors, who enter with a 3-12 record and could slide further towards the No.1 pick.

Cincinnati’s offense showed signs of life last week, going a perfect 6-for-6 in the red zone against Miami. With Noah Fant inactive, Mike Gesicki stepped into a larger role, finishing with 35 yards on four targets and a touchdown. He was also one of just two Bengals pass-catchers to see a red-zone target in that game. The matchup sets up well again. Only Dallas has allowed more points per game than Arizona since Week 14, and Gesicki remains one of the few Bengals TD prices that’s still reasonable in the market. Cincinnati’s implied team total sits around 31.5 points, which suggests another high-scoring afternoon for Joe Burrow and this offense. In a game where points are expected to come in bunches, Gesicki’s role near the goal line makes him a worthwhile look at plus money.

 

Every single victory in the Saints' three-game unbeaten run has been by at least three points, which means the Saints have covered in each contest. Their last road game was in Tampa, where they walked away with a 24-20 win. This is obviously a small spread, and if New Orleans is going to win like I expect them to, it will be by a minimum of a field goal.

Tyler Shough and the Saints’ offense are leaning heavily on the passing game. New Orleans dropped back 56 times last week, and the unit is starting to play with confidence. Chris Olave was at the center of it all, seeing 16 targets and turning them into 10 catches, 140-plus yards, and two touchdowns. Any clear WR1 facing Tennessee should be priced closer to +140 to score, so seeing Olave available nearer to +200 feels like a number that won’t last. Even at +150, there’s still value. The Saints simply can’t run the ball right now, which keeps the offense flowing through the air and makes Olave the focal point again this week.

The Jaguars are 12-3 to their team total Over this year, which is the best record in the NFL in that category and 7-0 on the road. 

Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence are pushing the pace offensively, and Parker Washington’s touchdown price doesn’t reflect his current role. In an indoor matchup against an Indianapolis defense that was exposed on Monday night, his number shouldn’t be longer than +210. Washington is coming off a 10-target performance where he led all Jaguars pass catchers in targets, receptions, yards, and air yards. He also converted two red-zone targets into a 12-yard touchdown. This is a dangerous receiving trio, but Washington’s usage suggests he can pace the group again in a favorable matchup against a defense that’s shown it can be beaten.

Seattle’s defense looked very beatable in Week 16, and if Carolina is forced into a pass-heavy script, the ball is going to Tetairoa McMillan at a massive rate. He’s seen roughly every third target when the Panthers drop back, yet this is the longest his touchdown price has been in four games despite scoring in four of his last five. There’s really only one reliable option to back in the Panthers’ passing game, and it’s McMillan. Given his role, usage, and consistency in the red zone, he’s a player I’m comfortable backing weekly at +170 or better.

The Panthers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

This number is likely to move once Brock Bowers being shut down is fully reflected in the market, but in an indoor matchup against the Giants, there’s value on backing the new TE1 at +300 or better. Michael Mayer steps into a featured role in an offense that relies heavily on tight ends. He’s a former second-round pick and already had meaningful usage even with Bowers active. Last week against Houston, Las Vegas ran two-tight-end sets on more than 50% of its snaps, and Mayer still ran routes on 58% of passing plays. With Bowers out, that route share could climb toward 90%, putting Mayer in line for five to eight targets. At that usage, this price won’t last long.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The model projects Michael Mayer to garner 7.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs.. The leading projections forecast Michael Mayer to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.2% in games he has played).

Buffalo has been strong against tight ends, but the price here makes this worth a look. Harold Fannin found the end zone against this defense last week on six targets and four catches, showing that scoring opportunities can still exist at the position. Dallas Goedert doesn’t need to win as a traditional inline tight end to get there. We saw that in Week 15, when both of his touchdowns came on creative usage near the goal line, including a shuffle pass in close. After that two-touchdown game, Goedert was priced around +190 last week. He scored again, yet his touchdown number has somehow drifted roughly 45 cents longer in a spot where Philadelphia may need more from him and the passing game. At +200 or better, Goedert remains a buy in virtually any matchup.

The Eagles didn't pull away from the Washington Commanders in Week 16 until third-string QB Josh Johnson entered the game, and Philly ranked 27th in offensive DVOA while generating the ninth-lowest EPA per play over the prior six weeks. So, with the Bills rattling off four consecutive wins and sporting a 6-1 record at Highmark Stadium, I don't think the Eagles can put enough points on the board to cover the number in Week 17.

Getting a running back at plus money in a primetime game with a total around 50 points is hard to pass up. San Francisco games have been trending over, and Chicago may need to lean heavily on D’Andre Swift with the receiving corps still dealing with injuries. Kyle Monangai’s role has started to fade, especially near the goal line. Over the last three games, Swift has logged nine red-zone carries for 46 yards and two touchdowns, while Monangai has six carries for just nine yards and no scores. Monangai’s usage was buoyed by some extra work in the passing game last week, but Swift remains the starter and the first option in scoring situations. Against a beatable defense that was just gashed for chunk plays by Philip Rivers on Monday night, Swift’s role and price make sense.

The Bears have a rare rest edge at this point in the season thanks to playing last Saturday and the 49ers featuring in Monday Night Football. That two-day edge is especially valuable on a travel week and sets up Chicago for success against the weakest defense it’s faced in a long time. This offense has been one of the best in the second half of the schedule, despite some strong defensive opposition. Chicago has played the Packers twice, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Minnesota in the past six outings. San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks well below those foes in defensive measurements.

With Davante Adams likely sidelined again, Xavier Smith should see meaningful snaps as the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. Smith brings true vertical speed with a sub-4.40 40-yard dash and has the ability to get behind defenses, which showed up last week on a 48-yard catch. He’s a classic boom-or-bust option, but the opportunity is there. Smith ran the third-most routes among the Rams wide receivers and only needs one or two connections to pay off at this number. Konata Mumpfield may draw more attention on Monday night, but at +600 or better, Smith offers the better risk-reward profile.

The Falcons aren’t going to the tournament but continue to battle with veteran QB Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta has won back-to-back road games and Monday will be just its second homestand in the past six weeks. 

Los Angeles is a much stiffer test defensively than the Falcons’ recent foes but this team has a bevy of offensive weapons, especially with the return of WR Drake London, and head coach Raheem Morris could be coaching for his job on MNF.

This spread opened Atlanta +7.5 and jumped to +8.5, which is an underrated key number in football betting. I like the fight in the Falcons enough to take the pile of points with the home side.