NFL Picks

Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty hasn’t been able to get much going on the ground. He has just one game with more than 75 rushing yards, and only two with more than 67 yards on the ground.

Jeanty wasn’t used much in the passing game earlier in the season, but he’s seen plenty of targets in recent weeks.

The rookie has at least five catches in four of his last five games, including 6, 8, and 6 on eight targets in each of his last three games.

The Broncos can’t run the ball without J.K. Dobbins, and RJ Harvey has managed just 65 rushing yards on 24 carries over his last two games. Meanwhile, Evan Engram led all pass-catchers on SNF with six receptions on nine targets for 79 yards. He’s averaging 5.8 targets per game since Week 4, putting him inside the top 10 among tight ends. Denver could push toward 30 points indoors against this Raiders defense, and getting one of their most heavily targeted pass-catchers at this price makes Engram a strong TD play this week.

Packers QB Jordan Love has looked very sharp the past three games, ranking out at the No. 1 passer in EPA per play since Week 11. The Cheeseheads are moving the chains on third downs and scoring TDs at an 80% inside the red zone during that span. Chicago’s playbook under new head coach Ben Johnson seems to be getting better by the week and hung 425 yards on the Eagles defense last Friday. That game saw Chicago picked up 28 first downs and dominate the football for more than 39 minutes. The cold forecast for Lambeau has money coming in on the Under, which knocked this total off the key number of 44 points. I'm buying back the Over before game time.

Moore has only cashed the Over in catches once in his last four outings, but there’s going to be more targets for him without Odunze lining up. Williams will be relying on Moore to be a focal point, and I don’t see any issues with him having at least four receptions. 

The Rams have a deadly pass rush and Verse has been getting heavily involved in the sacks in the second half of the season. 

Davante Adams leads WRs in touchdowns with 14, and the entire NFL in red zone targets (28), while also having scored in six straight games.

Oddsmakers continue to underestimate Houston, who has the top-rated defense in the league in terms of EPA/play. With C.J. Stroud under center, the Texans also have a decent offense so long as they're playing against a defense that can't take advantage of their poor pass protection. With the Chiefs in the Bottom 10 in pressure rate and sacks, they won't force Stroud into bad decisions. I'm reluctant to bet against Patrick Mahomes with a short spread at home, but the Chiefs tend to start slow, so take the points with the Texans in the first half.  

Jayden Higgins’ targets are climbing with at least five in four straight games, and the 6-foot-4 WR has four TDs on the year — two in the past four weeks.

The Chargers pass defense has weaknesses over the middle and the Eagles have been very efficient in passing between the numbers which should benefit Dallas Goedert.

Jalen Hurts has rushed for at least 30 yards six times this season, including in each of his last three games.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.