NFL Picks

Jacoby Brissett will be passing plenty if game script says anything in Week 11. The Cardinals are home underdogs to a Niners defense that leans on more zone coverage schemes. Those will give the Arizona QB trouble, as Brissett’s output nosedives vs. zone coverage, including his completion and catchable rates. Not only that, he’s missing top WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Zay Jones. Brissett has only thrown one INT since taking over as QB1 for the injured Kyler Murray but circumstances lean toward a miscue and I love the high price at +120.

Arizona’s offense may not be fantastic, but we saw last week in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams just how badly this 49ers defense can be exposed. Jacoby Brissett has been solid for the Cardinals, too, even against great defenses – and he’s made it work without some of his top weapons available on offense.

There’s just too much unknown with this 49ers offense going back to Purdy, and I don’t think it’ll have a ton of success on what’s been an excellent secondary. We know San Francisco can’t run, either, and the last time these teams met, the 49ers scored just one touchdown. We just need Arizona to score, and it should.

Darnold has cashed the Over in TDs in three of his last five appearances. He threw for four touchdowns in Week 9 against the Washington Commanders, and the Rams' pass defense isn't great. 

This is a big number for a tight end who saw three red-zone targets last week, just one behind George Kittle’s league-leading four at the position. It might look like a long shot, but Matthew Stafford has been on fire with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games. The Rams also kept throwing late last week, even with a comfortable lead. Parkinson has only one touchdown this season (last week at +950), but he’s had at least one red-zone target in four straight games and led the Rams’ tight ends in snap share last week at 57%. Stafford leans on his tight ends near the goal line — they’ve accounted for seven of his 25 touchdown passes this season.

J.K. Dobbins is done for the year, which means RJ Harvey takes over as the bellcow in the Bronco backfield. It also means he likely inherits the 20 red-zone carries Dobbins had this season. That's great news for a back who already leads the NFL in touchdown catches out of the backfield with four on the season. And he's caught touchdown passes in three of his last four games. The Chiefs rank 22nd in success rate against the run and 25th in EPA. They're also allowing 4.3 yards a carry. Running the ball is the best way for the Broncos to help Bo Nix and the offense maintain drives, and his increased snap count makes this price far too favorable to ignore. 

Mahomes will be under relentless pressure from this Denver pass rush. Additionally, he will face a defense that ranks fifth in man coverage rate. That means plenty of chances to take off. The Lions are a similar defensive profile to the Broncos, and Mahomes scrambled five times in that contest while registering a season-high 10 carries. Three of those carries came via kneel-down, which is an additional boost. The Broncos are struggling to put together consistent drives and are 3.5-point underdogs here. With Mahomes likely getting a couple of kneel-downs, combined with the favorable scrambling scenario, this is a terrific floor to aim for.  

The Ravens have allowed 678 yards after contact to running backs this season.

I might be taking a few too many shots in Week 11, but DraftKings is hanging a great number on Charlie Kolar, who’s scored in two of his last three games. He’s been priced at +850, +950, and +1700 during that stretch, and with the move back to Lamar Jackson plus a tough Browns run defense, the setup makes sense. Kolar played 44% of the snaps last week as Baltimore used 11 personnel on just 18% of plays against Minnesota. Despite being the team’s No. 3 tight end, he’s seeing roughly the same target volume as DeAndre Hopkins — who’s +330 to score. I’ll take a half-unit shot on Kolar this week, banking on some play-action near the goal line to get No. 88 another touchdown.

It’s been three long weeks since Jalen Hurts scored a touchdown. The “Tush Push” hasn’t had a four-game drought since November 2021, and the Eagles QB holds one of the higher TD projections of Week 11.

At home in a game with strong scoring potential, getting Saquon Barkley near even money for a touchdown feels like a gift. Sure, it’s not 2024 Barkley, but this offense isn’t as bad as it looked in Week 10, and the Lions are more than capable of giving up points. Barkley topped 100 total yards last week against a tough Green Bay defense and appears fully past his Week 8 groin injury. He scored twice just two games ago against the Giants and has been priced as short as -220 for a touchdown this season. Getting him close to even money in a likely shootout is a great value play — especially on a card with plenty of longshot props.

The Raiders rank 2nd in the NFL at defending QB scrambles. 

Williams has run the seventh most routes among all running backs but saw his receiving role dwindle the last two games due to Dallas falling behind quickly and being forced to pass downfield. Williams, who was targeted three or more times in six of his first seven games, saw just three total targets in one-sided losses to Denver and Arizona. But with the Boys expected to lead in Vegas, Williams’ involvement in the passing game will peak again. Player models for MNF range from 2.3 to 2.9 receptions for Williams, who knows this foe well from his days with Denver. In fact, Williams drew 25 total targets for 18 receptions in his last four games against Las Vegas defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.