NFL Picks

The Steelers have gotten their touchdowns over the past month from a wide variety of players, and scoring will be very hard to come by against this Houston defense. That’s why Kenneth Gainwell is my go-to in this spot.

Not only has he recently been Pittsburgh’s most consistent scorer, with touchdowns in three of his last five outings, but his 73 receptions on the season lead the team. Houston has a strong run defense, and their 10 touchdowns allowed to wideouts are the fifth-fewest in the league.

Gainwell leads all Steelers in red-zone targets, and has nearly as many carries inside the five yard line as teammate Jaylen Warren. If the Steelers get close to the end zone, he should see at least a few touches.

Dalton Schultz has only caught three touchdown passes this season, but two of those have come in the last four games. But he leads the Texans in catches and is second in yards behind Nico Collins. 

He’s facing a Pittsburgh defense that allowed the fifth-most yards, fourth-most catches, and fourth-most touchdown catches by tight ends this season. The Steelers will have to afford extra focus to the speedy Collins, as well as defend against the jump-ball ability of Jayden Higgins.

That should open things up for Schultz near the goal line. It’s worth noting that all three of his touchdown catches this season have come from snaps within five yards of the goal line. 

San Fran is in tough without tight end George Kittle (Achilles), with the Niners ranking 26th in rush offensive DVOA across the six games he missed during the regular season. Of course, San Francisco also just lost to Seattle 13-3 in Week 18, and the Seahawks send out the best defense in the NFL. In addition to being rested and pacing the league in EPA per play and defensive DVOA, the Seahawks also allow the lowest EPA and fewest yards per rush. I like the Seattle defense slowing down the San Fran offense again while putting enough points on the board to cover the number at Lumen Field on Saturday.

These NFC West rivals clashed in a battle for the top seed in Week 18, with the Seahawks winning a 13-3 grinder.

The Niners managed only nine first downs and 173 total yards on offense while Seattle dominated possession for almost 38 minutes, anchored in a rushing attack going for 180 yards.

The venue swings to the Pacific Northwest for the Divisional Round. The 49ers are also missing star TE George Kittle, who suffered an Achilles injury in the Wild Card Round.

If you think we’ll see more of the same from these divisional rivals, grab the Under 46.5 now. The next key stop will be 44 points, and books will move fast if one-sided money shows on the Under.

Not only do the Bills hit the highway on a short week for the Divisional Round, star quarterback Josh Allen took his licks against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Allen has another tall order in front of him this week with the Denver defense ranking fifth in defensive DVOA while allowing the lowest success rate and pacing the NFL in sacks. I also don’t trust the Bills run defense. Buffalo allowed 154 yards on just 23 carries (6.7 per tote) to the Jags after finishing the regular season ranked 31st in run defense DVOA and EPA per rush.

Buffalo drew a similar line at Jacksonville and stood as the road chalk for most of the week before sharp action faded the Bills on Friday, flipping Buffalo to +1.5.

The Bills now open as faves against a well-rested Denver team despite traveling for a second straight game after a very physical contest in Jacksonville. 

Quarterback Josh Allen took a pounding, being tested for a concussion, twisting his knee, and suffering an injury throwing hand in the win. On top of that, Buffalo is running short on receivers with only four regular WRs healthy and dual-threat RB Ty Johnson also hurt.

Buffalo has been able to break through top-tier defenses like Denver, putting up 12, 19, and 23 points against Philadelphia, Houston, and Cleveland – all of which finished Top 6 in Defensive DVOA. The Broncos are No. 8 in that advanced stat.