NFL Picks

Dowdle injured his toe in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and while he’s expected to play on Saturday, he has missed practice on the short week. If Dowdle is hampered, the Panthers need Hubbard to step up in this do-or-die matchup.

Head coach Dave Canales didn’t hide his faith in Hubbard, calling him a stud and a leader on the team when asked about the veteran running back. “I love Chuba,” Canales told the media. “Going to give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.”

Hubbard’s Week 18 projections range from 27 rushing yards to 34 yards, with most models north of 30 yards on the ground. Given Dowdle’s injury and Canales’ promise of more touches, I believe the ceiling is high for Carolina’s Canadian-born running back in Week 18.

In one of the few games where both teams have everything on the line, I’m backing the running back who controls 66% of the backfield workload and stands to earn an additional $250,000 with one more touchdown. This isn’t a longshot play, but with Carolina in must-win mode, Dowdle has clearly been the more effective back and should push past 20 opportunities. In a game plan built around him, the volume and motivation line up well for another trip to the end zone.

With everything on the line, Seattle isn’t going to get creative, especially near the goal line, where Zach Charbonnet has taken over. I’d be interested in Kenneth Walker at 30 cents longer, but the reality is Charbonnet is matching him in overall touches while completely dominating the red-zone work. Last week, Charbonnet handled six of the seven red-zone carries, and over the last three games, he has taken 10 of the team’s 11 red-zone rushes. He’s turned that volume into three touchdowns and 23 yards, while Walker has just two yards and no scores on his opportunities. At this usage, Charbonnet is playable up to +110.

The 49ers edged the Seahawks in the season opener, but a lot has changed since. The 49ers lost their two best defenders to season-ending injuries, and Sam Darnold has developed chemistry with his new teammates. The 49ers have an explosive offense, but have struggled on defense. They are 24th in the league in defensive dropback success rate while ranking 31st in defensive rush success rate. Meanwhile, Seattle is fifth in defensive dropback success rate and third in success rate against the run. The Seahawks also have a strong offense that ranks second in the league with 29.4 ppg. Back the more balanced team to take this game and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

It’s a good time to back the Titans’ offense, which has scored more than 110 points over its last four games and gets favorable weather to close out the season. Jacksonville can be competitive, but there’s also a real chance the Jaguars limit or pull starters in this spot. This is an excellent price on a true WR1. Rookie Elic Ayomanor led the team last week in routes, snap share, and targets, and cashed a red-zone TD at +400. Cam Ward has taken a clear step forward in December, and this number is being priced like a WR4 in a mediocre offense. I’d buy this to +300 or +330.

With this spread growing from Titans +10.5 to +13, the opportunity for a backdoor cover grows wider. 

Tennessee has been one of the best bets in football down the stretch, going 5-3 ATS in the past eight outings. The Titans have been particularly feisty over the last four contests, going 2-2 SU and ATS with those two losses coming by one score.

What’s more, interim head coach Mike McCoy is trying to boost his resume ahead of the 2026 hiring session and would love nothing more than to stick it to his former employer in Week 18.

“If we go in there and beat them, and all of a sudden somebody else – Houston - ends up winning, they win the division,” McCoy told the media on Monday morning. “Things like that. It's an opportunity to go out there and do something like that against a division opponent."

Houston still has plenty to play for. The Texans remain alive in the division race, and even if that falls short, holding onto the five seed is important to avoid a first-round matchup against a 12-win team. While Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel scored last week, their usage has been volatile and difficult to rely on. Nico Collins remains the clear focal point of this offense and now draws a favorable setup against an Indianapolis team starting a late-round rookie quarterback and playing for nothing. That opens the door for short fields and extra scoring chances. Collins has been priced much shorter than this at points throughout the season, making this number attractive. I’d buy him to +140.

The Texans have secured a playoff spot and can even still win the AFC South if the Jaguars shit the bed versus the Titans. While that scenario seems a little farfetched, Houston can still earn the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win in Week 18.

The Texans are at home to the Colts, who could be starting Riley Leonard over Philip Rivers at quarterback in the finale. Either way, this Texans defense is a tall task for any QB. 

Houston has given up more than 21 points only once on its eight-game run and has taken down some of the NFL best quarterbacks along the way. C. J. Stroud and the offense do their best work inside NRG Stadium, where Houston averages 6.2 points more than on the road.  

This spread sits short of the key number of -10 at some shops while other books are already dealing the Texans as high as -10.5 in Week 18. Get that -9.5 now.

The Giants finally got the passing game going last week, and Wan’Dale Robinson was the clear focal point. He caught 11 passes on 14 targets, while no other New York receiver saw more than two looks. Robinson now sits at 92 catches and nine touchdowns on the season, and even with a rib injury, the usage is impossible to ignore. With milestones within reach and a favorable matchup against the Dallas defense, this price is too generous. I’m buying Robinson down to +150/+155.

This spread sits a little higher than it should in my opinion, mainly because Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott told reporters he wanted to suit up in Week 18 – despite the Cowboys having nothing to gain.

Prescott’s plans could vary from what the front office wants, especially considering the gruesome history of this MetLife Stadium turf. Dallas could already be without RB Javonte Williams (shoulder) and TE Jake Ferguson (calf), who left last Thursday’s game with injuries. That’s not only two top weapons but big parts of the Cowboys’ pass protection.

Prescott took a pounding in the Xmas Day win over Washington, absorbing six sacks and 11 QB hits. He now faces a Giants pass rush that scored four sacks in Week 17 and injured Raiders QB Geno Smith (ankle) in the process. New York has 13 total sacks in its last four games.

If Dak is active, I don’t think it will be for more than a half of football. 

Shedeur Sanders and this Cleveland offense should be motivated to put a stamp on this game against a Bengals defense that has been getting carved up. Harold Fannin Jr. has been the preferred option to back, but he exited Week 17 with a groin injury, which opened the door for Jerry Jeudy to step up. Jeudy led the team with seven targets and ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks. He isn’t facing real competition from the wideout depth behind him, and if Fannin is limited or out, Jeudy becomes the clear focal point of this offense. At +300, it’s a strong number that I’d play down to +220, especially for a team that can’t run the ball right now.

The Under is 4-3 in Bengals' games with Burrow at QB and 4-2 when the Browns are road underdogs.

Slough has been letting it fly in the home stretch of the season and makes one last push for the Offensive Rookie of the Year. This game doesn’t mean much to NOLA, so I could see the Saints dropping back a lot more. Slough has had success against some bad passing defenses, taking on the Titans, Jets, Panthers, Tampa, and Miami but Atlanta is a dangerous D. The Falcons play a high rate of zone, blitz like mad, and have the sixth most INTs in the league – one of which was off the Saints rookie QB back in late November. Shough gets caught forcing it. 

The rookie is pushing for OROY honors, and even in a lost season, that storyline gives Kellen Moore’s offense plenty of momentum heading into Week 18. Chris Olave will be out, but Tyler Shough should have volume on his side and a favorable matchup against an Atlanta defense on a short week. Shough has thrown 209 passes over his last six games, with 124 attempts in three indoor contests, and is averaging over 300 yards per game in that span. The last three QBs to face Atlanta combined for seven TDs and nearly 1,000 yards. As the current betting favorite for OROY, Shough should get every opportunity, and the play-calling will likely reflect that.

The Patriots still have everything to play for, with outcomes ranging from the No. 1 seed to the No. 3 seed. That urgency sets up well for a focused offensive game plan against Miami in cold-weather conditions. Efton Chism ran the second-most routes last week, played more than 90% of the snaps in the second half, and cashed a 10-yard touchdown in the third quarter. His snap share should remain high, and with Stefon Diggs dealing with legal issues and Kayshon Boutte still in the concussion protocol, Chism could be a featured wideout in Week 18. At +450, this is a price I’d play down to +300.

The Dolphins defense is so bad and the Patriots offense is so good that it won't matter how much the Dolphins can score for this Over to hit. 

Los Angeles’ best plan of attack is get up early and then pull the starters. McVay says he’s playing his first teams – at least until they show him that they can play better than the team that’s lost two straight. That shouldn’t be too hard against Arizona, which has allowed 62 points in the first half over the last three games. Matt Stafford also trying to right his MVP ship after a bad effort on Monday knocked him down the odds board. He’ll let it rip. Rams Over 13.5 -125 in the opening half.

The Rams may not be playing for much by kickoff, but Trey McBride is still chasing history. Since Jacoby Brissett took over in Week 6, McBride has piled up 899 yards and 10 touchdowns, putting him on pace for one of the best tight end seasons ever. There’s also a real chance Arizona isn’t facing Rams starters in this spot, which could push this number down toward the +120 range. He was priced at +110 last week and has returned +5.8 units over the past 10 weeks on anytime TD bets. One more game to pad the stats, and the Cardinals have shown all year they’re happy to let Brissett feed him.

Olamide Zaccheaus was a late scratch last week due to illness and should be good to go by Sunday. Jahdae Walker absorbed most of his work, running routes on 71% of dropbacks and finishing with 30 yards and a red-zone target. If Zaccheaus returns, he’s expected to reclaim a larger role, especially with Rome Odunze potentially missing his fifth straight game. Chicago is still playing for the No. 2 seed, and Ben Johnson gets another shot at his former team. The Bears torched Detroit in Week 2, hanging 52 points while Chicago WRs piled up 234 yards and two TDs. There’s some risk the illness lingers, but with TD prices already moving on Luther Burden and Coltson Loveland, this is a spot worth monitoring closely through the week.

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Buffalo is going to tread lightly with James Cook and Josh Allen in Week 18, both TEs questionable coming in, and that means Johnson becomes much more involved, especially in the red zone. He’s a threat on the ground and through the air and with Trubisky potentially taking over under center, the Bills passing game will get simple. Jets defense is a dud and one of the worst RZ defenses in the NFL and New York has allowed 25 total TDs to RBs – rushing and receiving – which is most in the NFL. 

The Bills are still playing for seeding and will play their last game at Highmark Stadium, but there’s a real chance some starters get limited or rested, which makes TD props in this spot a bit risky, especially with a late kickoff. That said, Khalil Shakir has plenty to play for. He’s one TD away from unlocking a $150,000 bonus and draws about as soft a matchup as it gets. The Jets have lost four straight games by 20-plus points, and Shakir remains Buffalo’s highest-volume pass catcher. He should see enough run to contribute early or be given a chance to hit the bonus, even if Josh Allen is limited. There’s risk betting it early, but the angle makes sense.

This is a strong price in a game that could feature some of the lowest scoring on the Week 18 slate. It’s the Kenny Pickett version of a struggling Raiders offense, but Michael Mayer was heavily involved last week, with Brock Bowers shut down. He led the team with 10 targets, caught nine balls for 89 yards, and saw a red-zone look, even if it didn’t turn into a score. The matchup against Kansas City is tough, but the game being indoors helps, and the price more than accounts for the risk. For what could be the most involved pass catcher in this offense, it’s worth a look.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.. The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered a monstrous 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Broncos RB2 will likely get touches in what appears to be a cake walk against a Bolts team resting the starters. With the spread trending toward two TDS, Denver will give some extra love to its reserves and McLaughlin is a shifty back who can hit big plays. He had a season-high seven carries vs Kansas City last week and builds on that in Week 18, including his second score of the season. 

Evan Engram isn’t a throwaway piece in this offense, and while he hasn’t scored since Week 5, this is a strong spot to buy in at a big number given his usage. The Chargers are expected to rest starters, giving Denver a clean path to points. Engram draws targets on 22% of his routes, and while Adam Trautman is logging heavy snaps, it’s largely as a blocker with just one red-zone target all season. Engram saw two red-zone targets last week, caught both, but failed to score. Still a great role at this price. 

Gainwell has been a big part of this passing game in the second half of the season and steps up in terms of target priority with Metcalf suspended and Darnell Washington out, and Calvin Austin banged up. Rodgers has thrown to the RB six or more times in five of the last seven games, with Gainwell recording five or more receptions in five of those games. That includes six grabs on seven balls his way vs Baltimore. Projections for Week 18 range from 4.4 to 5 catches. Some other books asking -114 on the same Over.

With the season on the line, Pittsburgh may be forced to get creative, especially in the red zone where a lack of imagination arguably cost them last week. Without DK Metcalf, the Steelers are thin on true scoring threats, which opens the door for Arthur Smith to involve Connor Heyward in short-yardage situations. Heyward had two carries for 26 yards last week and could also see targets if Darnell Washington is limited. He scored in Week 15 on a goal-line carry and has six rushing attempts over the last three games. Since that week, he’s the only Steeler to score on a rush from inside the five. It’s a long shot, but after how ugly this offense looked, a creative wrinkle wouldn’t be surprising.