NFL Picks

Mayfield has rushed for 19 or more yards in seven of 13 games this season, including four straight, and this is also a solid matchup against Atlanta. The Falcons have surrendered the ninth-most yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks, and nine signal callers have rushed for 20-plus yards through 13 games. Additionally, Mayfield’s 33 scramble rushes are the seventh most, and he also ranks fourth in PFF running grade among quarterbacks. He’s scampered for a high-end 6.6 yards per tote and 5.42 yards after contact per attempt, too.

The Bucs are allowing a league-high 53.9 receiving yards per game to the RB position. Robinson is third on the Falcons in receiving yards, averaging 46.3 yards per game. Specific to this number of 36.5, he’s topped it in nine of 13 games. He tends to have a high ceiling, as he’s hit 50+ receiving yards in six games, including in a Week 1 matchup vs Tampa Bay where he reached 100 receiving yards.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.6% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect Jaxson Dart to throw 29.4 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.6% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect Jaxson Dart to throw 29.4 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Philadelphia Eagles safeties rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. This year, the anemic Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a whopping 7.62 yards.. The Philadelphia Eagles safeties rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

I expect rookie QB Shedeur Sanders to come back to earth in this road start. He was able to overcome a horrible Raiders defense in his first pro outing but the Bears defense is a much more dangerous test. Chicago’s stop unit was soft to start the schedule but has improved since Week 10, more specifically against the pass. The Bears run a high rate of man-to-man coverage and thrive on takeaways, with a league high 18 interceptions. Sanders has played three zone-heavy secondaries in Las Vegas, San Francisco and Tennessee – three defenses that also sit 24th or worse in EPA allowed per dropback. Sanders, who completion rate dips below 42% versus man coverage, will be forced to throw into tight windows against a ball-hawking secondary.

This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bears, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.. The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.5 per game) this year.. This year, the daunting Browns defense has surrendered a measly 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 8th-lowest rate in the league.. The Browns linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 40.0 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (259.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens offense has played at the 5th-most sluggish tempo in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 30.08 seconds per snap.. Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 30.4 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Ravens grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year.. Lamar Jackson's 187.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year reflects a noteworthy regression in his passing talent over last year's 243.0 figure.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Dalton Schultz's pass-catching performance been refined this year, notching 4.4 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 3.0 last year.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects C.J. Stroud to attempt 36.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-most out of all QBs.

New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money and it would surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk. The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Josh Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to the Bengals at home in Week 14. New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into their ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines. This is the biggest game in recent history for New England and would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.

The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Khalil Shakir has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 20.2% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among WRs.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the best in football this year.. Khalil Shakir checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an impressive 78.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.. This year, the deficient Patriots pass defense has surrendered a massive 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

The Jets are now travelling to Jacksonville, perhaps without Tyrod Taylor at QB (groin), to face a fierce Jaguars defense in Week 15. Jacksonville is a Top 10 stop unit in many advanced metrics and has held three of its last four foes to 19 points or less. As for the Jaguars offense, there could be a bit of a letdown waiting next Sunday. The team is coming off a massive win over Indianapolis in which it scored 36 points, thanks to turnovers setting the table with excellent field position. This total is already ticking down to the key number of 41, so if you like the Under you should snatch all the points you can right now. Groin injuries take time to heal and any updates on Taylor will tank this total.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: fewest in the NFL.. Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 68.3% to 63.6%.. This year, the tough Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded a feeble 171.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the fewest in the league.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to call the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.. When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year.. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the best in football.

The Under is getting 50% of the money despite only 43% of the bets.

The Seahawks are getting 80% of the money despite only 68% of the bets.

The Over has been a winner in five of the Titans past seven games and three of the 49ers past five.

The 49ers have covered the spread in four of their past five games and come in fresh from the bye week.

The Broncos' 11-2 SU mark is built on owning the trenches with the offensive and defensive lines among the best in the business. Denver is one of only three teams that rank Top 10 in every OL/DL win rate metric at ESPN (pass rush, pass block, run stop, run block). Keeping the Packers’ pass rush at bay and slamming the door on Green Bay’s run-heavy sets is the key to keeping the Broncos’ 10-game winning streak alive – or at least covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 15.

The Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL at 11-2 and they shouldn't be underdogs against anybody at home, especially since they're 6-0 with a scoring margin of +10.0 ppg at Mile High Stadium, where they benefit from a significant home-field advantage due to elevation. The Broncos have an elite stop unit that ranks second in the league in defensive success rate. They've piled up a league-high 55 sacks, and that pressure will make things tough for Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Take the Broncos at plus money in a game where they should be slight favorites or a pick'em at worst. 

Carolina is coming off a Week 14 bye in the thick of the race for top spot in the NFC South, and the Black Cats are trading Under the key number of 3 against the 3-10 Saints. New Orleans is ripe for a letdown spot after playing spoiler and topping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14, while Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is quietly turning the corner with the eighth-highest EPA+CPOE composite dating back to Week 9. Young has aired it out for 8.8 yards per attempt with a  68.1 completion percentage over his past three games, too.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 54.4% of their chances: the 11th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Carolina's defense grades out as the 6th-best in football this year as it relates to making interceptions, averaging 0.95 per game.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Carolina's CB corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.

Los Angeles has almost no home-field edge at SoFi Stadium, especially against teams like the Lions, who have widespread fanbases and travel well. There will be no shortage of Honolulu Blue in the stands this Sunday. The Lions should be able to grind out gains on the ground but exploit a soft secondary for L.A. with a talent group of receivers. 

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with an excellent 69.5% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 90th percentile.

The Vikings have the offensive weapons in place for quarterback J.J. McCarthy to put points on the board, and the Cowboys have averaged 29.5 points per game across the past four since their Week 10 bye. Of course, the Dallas defense has also allowed a healthy 27.3 points per and hit the Over in three of four. Minny played a pair of tough defenses -- the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks -- on the road prior to putting up 31 points on the Washington Commanders in Week 14, and I expect the Vikings to do their part in pushing this total Over the number in against another soft stop unit in Week 15.

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Right now, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (63.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.

Achane has powered this Miami attack during this streak, with the Dolphins handing off at the highest rate in the league the past three games. That’s keep gains short and the clock ticking, translating into a healthy chunk of TOP for the Fins. The Dolphins will go run-heavy again on Monday, especially if conditions stink, as to keep the heat from QB Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh brings blitz at a Top 5 rate and is among the leaders in sacks and QB hits. The Steelers attack has lacked explosive plays with Aaron Rodgers under center. He enters Week 15 with the second lowest intended air yards per attempt among qualified QBs and the offense has the sixth fewest completions of 20 yards or more – just behind the Dolphins.

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (74.5% Adjusted Completion%).

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.