NFL Picks

The Jaguars are getting burned by tight ends this season, allowing the ninth-most yards per target. And now the secondary will be without Travis Hunter and Eric Murray, both of whom went onto the IR this weekend.

Bowers was targeted 27 times in the first four games before his injury, catching 19 passes. That kind of target share here should get him over his total of 50.5 yards.

Last season, he caught 11 of 13 targets against the Jaguars for 99 yards and a touchdown. He should have another strong day as Geno Smith's favorite target. 

Smith is coming off the worst game of his career, completing 10 of 16 passes for just 67 yards against Kansas City. That said, the Raiders are fresh off a bye which has allowed Pro Bowl TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers to get healthy. Meyers missed the Chiefs game while Bowers hasn't been at full strength since suffering a knee injury in Week 2. With his top two receivers back on the field, Smith should be able to air it out against a Jaguars D that has been a pass funnel. The Jags are second in the league in defensive rush success rate but just 25th in defensive dropback success rate while allowing 245.7 passing yards per game. 

With New Orleans starting a rookie under center vs. Los Angeles, we could see Taysom Hill also get some reps as a “quarterback” in Week 9. Hill won’t be passing the ball and will be more used as a runner, especially with RB Alvin Kamara not 100% heading into Sunday. Projections for Hill range from 12 yards rushing to more than 18 on the ground.  

Tyler Shough could be under siege against an elite Los Angeles Rams pass rush, and one of the Saints’ counters will surely be to release Kamara as a checkdown option. He won’t even need much volume to cash such a low number. I also see the game situation nudging the visitors towards the passing game. If New Orleans is playing catch-up in the second half, Kamara becomes an even bigger factor as a receiver — and those are the type of short-yardage throws that L.A. may be willing to give up.

Shakir has been a great shallow option for the Bills, and that should play well against a Kansas City team that gives up short receptions while preventing deep balls in the passing game.

Patrick Mahomes will need to rely on his most dependable receivers in this game, and that should mean a continuation of Kelce's recent production.

The Seahawks struggle to defend scrambling quarterbacks through the air and Jayden Daniels is one of the best in the league at doing just that. 

JSN has hit this number in all but one game this season and the Commanders give up big plays at one of the highest rates in the NFL. 

Brissett is once more under center for the Cardinals with QB1 Kyler Murray unable to go with a foot injury in Week 9. The veteran backup has played well in relief, passing for just short of 600 total yards, four touchdowns and only one interception in the past two games. However, this zone-heavy defense from Dallas could be Brissett’s kryptonite. While he rates Top 10 in many metrics against man-to-man, he’s 30th in completion rate vs. zone (64.4%), 16th in passer rating vs. zone (93.0), and 21st in catchable ball rate (75.6%) against zone schemes. With Arizona pegged as a road underdog and the total among the highest on the board, Brissett could be forced to pass more and make tough throws to keep the chains moving. Dallas hasn’t been as dangerous in terms of takeaways as year’s past, but it does have four INTs on the season.

With a game total north of 50 and Knight’s rushing line set at 57.5 yards, I’m all in on him this week. I’ve already grabbed his anytime touchdown at +145 and I’m adding his rushing overs. Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Jacoby Brissett under center, I’m comfortable—Brissett actually ran the offense more efficiently in Weeks 6 and 7. In Arizona’s last game, Knight handled 64% of the running back opportunities, even with Carter getting seven carries for just 11 yards. Over his two starts, he’s faced tough run units (Packers, Colts) but still logged 25 carries for 91 yards and a score. With that kind of volume against this soft Dallas defense, 15 carries for 60 yards would only require 4.0 yards per carry—a modest ask versus a defense allowing 4.9 per rush on the season. The matchup is perfect and the opportunities could be more than expected. 

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.