NFL Picks

While Dart has shown promise at times, he also doesn’t have a lot of help. In 10 games played, he’s averaging just 155.6 passing yards per contest. He’s cashed the Under in three of his last four appearances as well. 

The Commanders are a strong matchup for any pass catcher, as their defense is one of six in the league allowing two or more passing touchdowns per game. The New York passing game should remain steady with Jaxson Dart, who’s coming into Week 15 with some extra rest. Theo Johnson has been one of Dart’s most reliable options. The rookie tied for the team lead with eight targets last week, accounting for 33 percent of Dart’s attempts. He also showed some frustration in the loss, which could translate into a motivated performance on Sunday. This is playable to +210.

Jack Bech was taken with the 58th pick in the draft after being a season-team All-Big 12 selection at TCU. The rookie didn't get many chances to contribute early in the season but had a career-high 82% snap share last week and finished with six receptions for 50 yards. Four of those receptions came in the fourth quarter after Kenny Pickett replaced an injured Geno Smith. It was clear that Bech has a rapport with the veteran QB and that should continue into this week with Pickett named the starter. We should also get a heavy passing game script from the Raiders on Sunday since they are 12.5-point underdogs against the Eagles.

I’m expecting the Eagles to show up on time Sunday afternoon and pull away from the Raiders. Las Vegas is turning to Kenny Pickett behind center for his first start of the season, and even with a three-game losing streak the Philly defense still ranks eighth in defensive DVOA and has allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. I also value this spread trading beneath the key number of 7.

Chicago is allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt on the NFL this season, and tight ends have had plenty of success against the Bears.

That's good news for Harold Fannin Jr, who racked up a career-high 40 routes run against the Titans and will be the primary tight end with the injury to David Njoku.

Fannin has been the first read for more than 25% of the pass plays where he's been on the field over the past three games, and Shedeur Sanders is going to look for him often, given the issues with his offensive line.

The Bears have allowed 52+ yards to opposing tight ends in six of their last eight games, and Fannin will just be the next name on that list. 

Harold Fannin cashed for us last week at +300, and even after an 8/114/1 performance against the Titans, his touchdown price hasn’t moved much. He’s Shedeur Sanders’ favorite target, and the David Njoku injury is only increasing his involvement. Fannin might be the only TE/WR on this roster with red-zone looks from Sanders, and he’s scored in back-to-back weeks. A fair price here should be around +210 to +220.

Has six TDs this season and faces a Bengals defense who've allowed 15 touchdowns to tight ends.

Just a season removed from hauling in nine receiving touchdowns with a high-end 16.6 yards per reception and a 15.2 aDoT, Bateman has dipped to respective 12.1 and 12.9 marks with just two scores through 11 games in 2025. In turn, his receiving yards total has also dipped considerably, while his role remains steady as the No. 2 wide receiver for the Ravens. So, with the Bengals ranking 32nd in dropback success rate, 28th in PFF coverage grade and allowing the second-highest yards per target, I like Bateman to clear this total for a second consecutive week.

Nico Collins is far and away the top wide receiver in Houston. He leads the Texans with 61 catches on 103 targets for 916 yards in 12 games, an average of 76.33 yards per contest.

Collins is coming off his third game of at least 100 receiving yards this season, racking up 121 yards on just four catches, including a long of 53. That’s now two straight games and five of his last six in which he’s had at least 75 receiving yards.

Arizona allows 224.3 passing yards per game, and Collins should get his fair share on Sunday afternoon.

The Over pass attempts for Jacoby Brissett has been the gift that keeps on giving. Brissett has thrown the ball at least 40 times in five-straight contests and is averaging 46.8 pass attempts per game over that span. The Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have pretty much abandoned that part of their offense, with their passing play percentage sitting at an absurd 75% over the last four weeks. They are 9.5-point road dogs against the red-hot Texans on Sunday which makes it even more likely that they'll lean on their aerial attack after falling behind early.

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New York is coming of a 24-point loss at home to the Miami Dolphins, and should be even more outmatched on Sunday.

The Jets defense doesn't have a single interception through 13 games — the longest run without a pick to start a season in NFL history. While his numbers don't jump off the page, Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence is getting more comfortable in Liam Coen's offense and has improved his efficiency over the course of the year. Lawrence hasn't thrown a pick in his last two games and he ranks fourth among all QBs in success rate since Jacksonville's bye in Week 8. With the Jags 13-point home favorites on Sunday, he'll likely throw fewer passes and will be less likely to force the ball into tight coverage.

The Chiefs have been an Under team all year at 4-9 O/U, and will now feature in a game where both offenses have injury concerns and will be playing in frigid weather. 

Only two running backs had more red-zone carries last week than Omarion Hampton in his first game back, with five. He didn’t convert those attempts, but he did score on an eight-yard reception. This is a strong price for a lead back in a productive offense with the goal-line role. I’d play him to +120, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he took on even more work in his second game back from injury.

JSN has five TDs in five games.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has caught eight touchdowns this season from wide alignment, and the Colts have allowed 13 touchdowns to players from that exact alignment. 

In the past month, they’ve faced three of the top four teams per defensive DVOA and averaged 22.6 points scored in those games. That’s good going when they’ve averaged just 15.5 points across the whole season.

The 49ers are averaging 23.6 points per game, and with the Titans showing real signs of improvement, we should see the game total smashed.

With the 49ers likely to have a big game themselves, we should expect the Titans to put up points too, even if it’s not enough to win or even cover the spread.

I’m not suddenly buying into the Titans’ offense after one good week, but Tony Pollard at this price is hard to ignore. You’re getting a lead back coming off a 25-carry, 161-yard, two-touchdown performance at essentially a WR3/WR4 number. The 49ers may be coming off a bye, but this defense isn’t a top-10 unit and is still missing key pieces with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa out. Even if Tennessee only scores 14 points, I’d take Pollard at +300 or better, especially with his red-zone role. Any back projected for 15 touches should be shorter than +250.

Love has thrown seven touchdown passses in his last two games, and even against a stingy Denver defense, I'm taking him to hit the Over at plus money.

Capable of contributing both on the ground and through the air, I'm taking Harvey to find the endzone add to his total of nine touchdowns on the season.

The Saints' offense is bottom five in the league in scoring, turnovers lost, passing touchdowns, and the major rushing categories (yards, TDs, and per carry average).

The Saints have lost three straight ATS at home, and last week's upset at Tampa Bay was their first time topping the 20-point mark in eight games.

Tyler Shough scrambled for 55 yards on seven carries last week but 34 of those yards came on a single run. The rookie QB had been held below 20 rushing yards in four of his previous five starts and his previous career-high was a 22-yard game against Atlanta. He also didn't run much in college and on Sunday he faces a Carolina defense that contains quarterbacks on the ground. The Panthers have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (10.2) and the second-fewest yards per rush attempt (2.8) to opposing QBs. They are dead-last in the league in pressure rate so they rarely flush quarterbacks out of the pocket. 

Detroit’s banged-up secondary is getting torched by explosive pass plays, and that sets up Stafford and the Rams to lean even more on the air game for a big passing day.

The weakest link in L.A.'s defense is its secondary which is something that Lions No. 1 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown can exploit. The All-Pro wideout has racked up 31 touchdowns in 46 games over the last three seasons. With his solid frame, strong hands, and elite route-running, St. Brown is the Lions go-to receiver when they get near the goal line. He's second in the league red-zone targets with 20, while corralling 14 of them for eight TDs. St. Brown's already high target share has gotten even higher over the last few weeks after tight end Sam LaPorta suffered a season-ending injury.

This point spread has dropped to Dallas -5.5 at most books, but FanDuel is still giving the Vikings at +6.5 – offering a half-point hook on the other side of the key number for a little extra vig. Minnesota proved it’s still playing for something in last weekend’s squash of the Washington Commanders, putting forth perhaps its most complete football game of the entire season. Dallas has some injuries on the offense and this Vikings defense has returned to form with a disruptive pass rush. Minnesota is a Top 10 D in EPA since Week 9 and this spread feels too big considering how bad the Cowboys defense can be.

Aaron Jones is +155, but I'd rather have Jordan Mason, who had 11 carries last week and got the red-zone role vs. Washington. He finished that game with five carries inside the 20-yard line, which tied for the third most by any RB in Week 14. Jones has also been dealing with injuries and inefficiency, which might open the door for more work for Mason. If JJ McCarthy can build on his Week 14 performance, Minnesota could flirt with 24 points in Dallas, where everyone scores. Mason will have a big role on Sunday night for an offense that wants to run the ball. 

Betting the Over on Tua Tagovailoa’s interception prop sets up well this week, and the cold-weather angle is very real. Tua is 1-8 in games with kickoff temperatures of 46°F or colder, with Miami averaging just 16.4 points. It’ll be around 20 degrees in Pittsburgh on Monday night. In sub-40 games, he’s thrown eight TDs and nine INTs, with his completion rate dropping from 68% to 58% and yards per attempt falling from 8.2 to 6.1. Miami’s run-heavy approach may not hold if De’Von Achane remains limited or the game script forces more passing. Deep shots are risky for him, as he ranks 28th in deep-ball accuracy and sits second in interceptable passes. If Miami throws more, a turnover is very live.

The Dolphins have been running the ball well of late, but De'Von Achane’s rib injury is concerning and his practice reps are in question. If I’m pivoting on an offense that has scored over 100 points across its last four wins, I’m taking the first read in the passing game at a fair +200. Waddle has six touchdowns this season and has gone more than one game without a score only once. He even saw a 21-yard rushing attempt last week and could take on more ground work if Achane sits, especially in a cold-weather game where moving the ball could be tougher. He’s their second-best weapon and could become the focal point if Achane is out.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.