NFL Picks

Aaron Rodgers ranks dead-last in the NFL in average intended air yards (5.9) and has been heavily reliant on short throws to backs and tight ends. Kenneth Gainwell is Pittsburgh's most reliable receiver out of the backfield and has been taking the majority of the RB snaps on passing downs. He has logged 25+ receiving yards in four of his last five games which includes a seven-catch, 81-yard performance against the Bengals. The Ravens are 26th in DVOA against running backs while allowing 39.1 receiving yards per game to the position — the sixth-highest total in the league. 

Lamar Jackson has been dealing with multiple lower-body injuries that have robbed him of his usual mobility and elusiveness. The Bengals sacked Jackson three times last week and the Browns had five sacks against him in Week 11. He was sacked just once by the Jets in Week 12, but was tackled multiple times just past the line of scrimmage. He'll have a hard time escaping a strong Pittsburgh pass rush led by T.J. Watt. The All-Pro outside linebacker has picked up at least half a sack in seven of his last 10 contests. He also has a history of wrecking the Ravens, racking up 17 sacks in 16 career games against Baltimore.

Bijan Robinson has rushed for 995 yards and he's also a weapon in the passing game where he has 54 catches for 594 yards. He'll have a tough time finding running room against Seattle but should have success through the air. The Seahawks have an elite defense, especially against the run, but are vulnerable against pass-catching backs. They are 29th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed per game (39.7) to opposing RBs while allowing the second-most receptions per game (5.7) to the position. Robinson has logged 37+ receiving yards in nine of 12 games this year and the Falcons are 7.5-point underdogs this week which indicates a negative game script.

Cousins is a shell of his former self and will be a sitting duck for one of the fiercest pass rushes in the land. The Seahawks generate the second highest pressure rate per dropback and rank No. 3 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, sitting second in QB hurries and fourth in total sacks. They do this all without needing extra rushers, blitzing less than 20% of the time. That allows Mike Macdonald’s defense a lot of flexibility with the linebackers and secondary. Seattle can drop more into coverage or dedicate linebackers to plugging up the rushing lane, which is what it’ll do against the Falcons two-headed RB monster of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

Ward has cashed the Under in passing yards in two of his last four appearances. In Week 13, he threw for just 141 yards in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. While his total isn’t that high here, and he’s also cashed the Over several times throughout the last month and a half, we’re focusing on Cleveland’s defense. The Browns may be 3-9, but they rank third in fewest passing yards allowed and also third in fewest total yards allowed.

I don’t usually double-dip in back-to-back weeks, but Harold Fannin and Shedeur Sanders are clicking, and the rookie tight end cashed a +425 TD for me last week in brutal weather, so I’m going back in Week 14 despite the price drop. Fannin has now led the team in receptions and targets in two straight games and profiles as a potential No. 1 option again against a weak Titans defense. Sanders looks comfortable, and this time he won’t be throwing in 30-mph winds. Fannin has fully taken over the TE1 role from David Njoku and has been more reliable than Jerry Jeudy. I’d play his TD down to +230.

Even during its current winnings streak, Miami’s offense hasn’t been special, and the Jets aren’t built to run up the score, either.

After posting an 8/102/1 line last week in just his third game with the offense, the former Colts receiver looks like he’s finally settling into a suddenly competent Jets attack. Across his three games as a Jet, he’s racked up 457 air yards and 27 targets — production that should put his TD price below +200, yet the market still hasn’t adjusted. John Metchie saw eight targets last week, but much of that came late. Mitchell is the one getting the deeper routes and the higher-value opportunities. The Jets may not score more than 20 points, but with Miami having to account for Breece Hall, Mitchell should see plenty of shots on Sunday.

Irving scored on his return to action last week and is the key touchdown scorer on this Bucs offense, who are heavy favorites.

There’s a sizable gap in Mayfield’s numbers at Raymond James Stadium and the highway, with the veteran averaging 249 yards per game and 7.6 yards per target at home compared to respective 193.6 and 6.0 marks on the road. This is also the lowest passing yards total for Mayfield since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, and there’s nothing scary about the New Orleans pass defense. The Saints have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest EPA per dropback while ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA, after all.

Jonathan Taylor has gone from unstoppable to inconsistent, while Daniel Jones has begun to show some of the errors that cost him the starting job in New York. Jacksonville is also stingy against the run, which will put more pressure on Jones to win the game with his arm. The Jaguars are on home soil, flying high, and have the playoffs in their sights.

Brenton Strange found the end zone for the first time this season in his second game back, and the usage was no fluke — only Jakobi Meyers saw more targets. With the Colts on deck and no Sauce Gardner this week (a big shift from last week’s matchup vs. Tennessee), the passing volume should stay elevated. Strange is emerging as a legitimate top receiving option in this offense. Brian Thomas hasn’t looked like last year’s version of himself, Meyers offers limited upside, and Parker Washington left Week 13 with a hip injury and didn’t return. Now he draws a premium matchup: Indianapolis allows the second-most yards to opposing tight ends. Given the role, matchup, and red-zone involvement, Strange anytime TD is playable down to +240.

Jayden Daniels is an excellent rusher when needed out of the pocket and the Vikings rank 25th in the NFL in allowing quarterback scrambles. 

In his first game back after a four-week absence, Terry McLaurin drew 14 targets — tied for the most of any player in Week 13. Even more impressive, he did it on just 49% of the snaps with Marcus Mariota under center. Now he steps into an indoor matchup against a Minnesota team that can’t generate much offense, and he could see a QB upgrade if Jayden Daniels returns. Even if he doesn’t, getting a receiver at better than +200 who’s capable of 10+ targets is an easy play in Week 14. His snap share will only rise as he gets back to full form. With that Week 13 volume, he should be closer to +150.

Dalton Kincaid is tied for the most first touchdowns for the Bills this season and faces a Bengals team who have allowed 13 touchdowns from tight ends this season.

Through the first six games of the season, Brown rushed for just 202 yards on a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry. But in the last six games he has rushed for 502 yards on 5.8 yards per attempt. In Week 14, Brown and the Bengals face a Buffalo squad that has one glaring flaw; an inability to stop the run. The Bills are 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA. They surrender 141.3 rushing yards per game and with Cincinnati getting back QB Joe Burrow last week, they'll need to focus on containing the pass. Brown has rushed for more than 70 yards in five of his last six games and this number looks way too low here. 

Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty hasn’t been able to get much going on the ground. He has just one game with more than 75 rushing yards, and only two with more than 67 yards on the ground.

Jeanty wasn’t used much in the passing game earlier in the season, but he’s seen plenty of targets in recent weeks.

The rookie has at least five catches in four of his last five games, including 6, 8, and 6 on eight targets in each of his last three games.

The Broncos can’t run the ball without J.K. Dobbins, and RJ Harvey has managed just 65 rushing yards on 24 carries over his last two games. Meanwhile, Evan Engram led all pass-catchers on SNF with six receptions on nine targets for 79 yards. He’s averaging 5.8 targets per game since Week 4, putting him inside the top 10 among tight ends. Denver could push toward 30 points indoors against this Raiders defense, and getting one of their most heavily targeted pass-catchers at this price makes Engram a strong TD play this week.

Moore has only cashed the Over in catches once in his last four outings, but there’s going to be more targets for him without Odunze lining up. Williams will be relying on Moore to be a focal point, and I don’t see any issues with him having at least four receptions. 

Love has 14 TDs in six road appearances compared to just five touchdowns at Lambeau Field in 2025. He’s cashed the Under in TDs in four straight home games, failing to throw for a single touchdown in each contest. 

The Rams have a deadly pass rush and Verse has been getting heavily involved in the sacks in the second half of the season. 

Davante Adams leads WRs in touchdowns with 14, and the entire NFL in red zone targets (28), while also having scored in six straight games.

Hunt totaled 80 yards on 15 touches last week but failed to find the end zone. That snapped a four-game touchdown streak for the veteran RB. Isiah Pacheco returned to the Chiefs' backfield last week after missing a month with a knee injury. He could start to cut into Hunt's reps, but he won't be utilized anywhere near as much near the goal line. Pacheco has logged 81 carries this season, but doesn't have a single carry inside the 5-yard line. Meanwhile, Hunt has 14 carries inside the 5-yard line and turned seven of those into TDs. 

The Texans selected Jayden Higgins with the 34th in the draft after a stellar career at Iowa State.  The rookie has made an immediate impact, snagging a touchdown in four of the last nine games. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound wideout provides a big target in the red zone and has earned the trust of CJ Stroud.  He's seen 28 targets over his last four games despite the return of Christian Kirk to a crowded WR room in Houston. Since Week 6, Higgins is second on the Texans in red-zone targets with seven — just two behind Nico Collins whose anytime TD prop sits at +165. Higgins provides far better value at +380. 

Oronde Gadsden was one of the most productive tight ends in the league for a four-week stretch. However, the rookie has cooled off in recent weeks and has a tough matchup on Monday night against Philadelphia. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Bolts passing attack and Gadsden is coming off a game where he had one catch on just two targets. He's logged fewer than 3.5 receptions in three straight games and has been held below 30 yards in two of those contests. The Eagles are first in the league in DVOA against tight ends while allowing the second-fewest yards to the position. 

AJ Brown’s production is fully back. He has six red-zone targets over his last three games, with at least one in each. The offense hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard, but Brown was one of the most heavily targeted players last week with 12 looks, converting them into 10 catches and two touchdowns — giving him three scores over his last two games. He was +155 to score last week, and instead of adjusting his number down, the market has gone the other way. Now he gets an indoor matchup with an offense looking to respond after a holiday letdown. His fair price should be around +150.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.