NFL Picks

Barkley has cashed the Over in rushing yards in two of his last four games, and he just ran for 83 yards last weekend. 

Lamb had 110 yards receiving against the Eagles in the season opener. He's also cashed the Over in two of his previous four appearances. 

There are signs of life in the New Orleans passing game, and that’s got to be music to Chris Olave’s ears. He’s coming off his best stat line of the season, with five grabs for 104 yards against the Panthers in Week 10, including a 62-yard touchdown. I’m counting on more of the same from Olave here, especially after what we saw from the Atlanta defense last weekend when Bryce Young lit up the Falcons for 448 passing yards and three TDs.

This Week 12 long shot stays indoors and features a receiver who already has a solid connection with his new quarterback, Kirk Cousins. With Michael Penix out and Drake London sidelined by a PCL injury, the door opens for KhaDarel Hodge. In Week 8, with Cousins under center and London inactive, Hodge saw eight targets and ran a season-high 21 routes. Darnell Mooney has been a non-factor and is dealing with a collarbone issue that may be limiting him. It’s a speculative play, but Hodge has a real chance to be a top-two WR for Atlanta in a favorable matchup. This is a full-unit swing that could close around +500 if he’s confirmed as the WR2.

Matthew Stafford hasn't been throwing much to his backs in recent weeks but that might change here. Kyren Williams could have a tough time finding running room against a stout Bucs run defense but Sean McVay will still look to get the ball into the hands of his talented RB. Williams had just one catch on two targets for five yards last week. However, he has still logged 10+ receiving yards in seven of his last nine games. That includes a Week 5 clash against the 49ers where he reeled in eight catches for 66 yards. The Bucs are vulnerable against pass-catching backs, allowing a a league-high 59.6 receiving yards per game to the position.

Mayfield led the league with 4,500 passing yards last season. He's been limited by a banged-up group of receivers this season but has still thrown for more than 250 yards in four of his last seven games. WR Chris Godwin is expected to return to Tampa Bay's lineup on Sunday after a two-month absence. Even if he's on a snap count, he should open things up for  Emeka Egbuka and the other receivers. L.A. is a 7-point home favorite which should lead to a negative game script and high passing volume from the Bucs. That's been a theme for the 8-2 Rams who have allowed the fifth-most pass attempts per game (36.4).

San Francisco sits near the bottom of most pass defense measurements, including worst in the NFL for total air yards allowed. Panthers’ receiver Xavier Legette caught four of eight balls for 83 yards last Sunday, with the bulk of those gains coming on a 36-yard over-the-top touchdown strike that sparked Carolina’s comeback in the third quarter. Legette leads the team in air yards per reception (18.0) and has produced six plays of 20-plus yards so far this season. He’s recorded a reception of at least 15 yards in five of his last seven games (5-2 O/U to this prop). He goes against a Niners secondary ranked 26th in DVOA when defending WR2s (55.2 yards per game to WR2s) at FTN. The 49ers will focus their attention on slowing down Carolina WR1 Tetairoa McMillan, leaving the 6-foot-4 Legette to go upstairs for big gains against a San Francisco starting secondary that runs no taller than six feet.

Dowdle became a bigger part of the Panthers’ passing game when Chuba Hubbard got hurt. But even with his backfield mate returning to action, Carolina tries to get the ball in Dowdle’s hands any way it can. He’s drawn three or more targets in five of his last seven games, including a season-high seven passes his way in last week’s win over the Atlanta Falcons. Dowdle caught five of those balls and rumbled for 55 yards receiving. The 49ers have allowed the most targets to rival running backs in the league, which has panned out to the second most receptions and ninth most receiving yards given up to RBs. Last week, San Francisco watched Arizona’s trio of running backs tally 11 receptions for a collective 55 yards receiving. Week 12 forecasts for Dowdle bounce between 16 and 23 receiving yards.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.