NFL Picks

The Covers projection has Harvey at 26.4 receiving yards after posting a 54% route share last week and catching five of six targets for 46 yards, showing clear trust in the passing game, even if the run role remains limited. J.K. Dobbins could return, but Sean Payton may keep Harvey in the receiving role with Dobbins and McLaughlin splitting carries, as Harvey’s 3.5 YPC hasn’t solved the run game. Only eight RBs have more receptions this season than Harvey, and with Jarrett Stidham at QB, checkdowns could pile up. If Denver trails, another 40-plus receiving yard game is live.

Rhamondre Stevenson handled his heaviest rushing workload since Week 8 last week with 16 carries, even after briefly leaving with an eye injury. After halftime, he played 87% of the snaps, handled 80% of the backfield opportunities, and ran for 47 yards as New England leaned into the run game. Game script again points run-heavy, with the Patriots facing a backup QB and Drake Maye struggling with ball security. The line has already moved up from 42.5, but it was not efficient as Stevenson is 6-0 to Over on it across his last six games.

The Rams leaned on 11 personnel at a season-high 90% last week, which might seem like a concern for Colby Parkinson, but Tyler Higbee played just 10% of the snaps while Parkinson saw seven targets. Combined, Rams tight ends accounted for a massive 33% target share. Since Higbee returned three games ago, Parkinson has 17 targets and at least 34 yards in every game with no real dip in snaps despite the personnel shift. His long gains of 35, 19, 21, 16, 16, and 26 yards show big-play upside, and averaging 5.8 targets over his last six gives him chances to top this on short and high volume. 

Barner actually saw more action as a rusher than receiver in the Divisional Round. He drew zero targets but got one carry for two yards as a short yardage option. The Seahawks' version of the "Tush Push" is named the "Barn Yard", with Barner collecting 10 carries during the regular season, including three attempts in two games with the Rams. With Zach Charbonnet out, the Seahawks could call upon Barner more as a ball carrier - especially in short yardage as to not wear down or injure RB Kenneth Walker. Projections give Barner around 3.5 yards rushing on one carry this Sunday.