NFL Picks

New England has covered in 13 of its past 16 games, and after ranking eighth in defensive DVOA dating back to Week 14 of the regular season, the Pats held the Houston Texans to just 16 points and 241 total yards of offense in the Divisional Round. With Denver turning to backup Jarrett Stidham, I think the market is undervaluing the Pats again, and I’m expecting the New England defense to hold Denver in check.

Before the Nix injury, the look-ahead total for this AFC title game pairing was 45.5. Books adjusted that number to 40.5 ahead of the Patriots’ win over Houston on Sunday. Books opened the official total at 41.5 points. 

The Patriots benefited from an error-plagued performance from Texans QB C.J. Stroud, which helped their offensive effort appear stronger than it really was. New England scored a defensive touchdown, averaged only 4.0 yards per play, and had three turnovers of its own against Houston’s top-tier defense.

The Broncos present more of the same. Denver ranks among the top stop units in the land and will lean heavily on that defense to keep the team within striking distance next Sunday. The Broncos' playbook was conservative with Nix, but it will be very vanilla with Stidham as it tries to lure the Pats into a low-scoring grinder.

With this spread Under the key number of 3, I’m siding with Seattle. The Seahawks posted the third-highest, single-season DVOA dating back to the 2018 campaign, and earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC has their roster better rested and healthier than the Rams. Los Angeles will also be travelling for a third consecutive game and the fifth time in six weeks. 

Seattle had success running the ball in both games, picking up 139 yards on 35 carries in Week 11 and rushing for 171 yards on just 25 attempts in Week 16. Los Angeles just allowed 160 yards on the ground from 39 carries by Chicago.

If Seattle QB Sam Darnold is still nursing an oblique injury on Sunday, the Seahawks could see their passing plays shortened and an emphasis on the rushing attack. That keeps gains shorter with continuous clock ticking away.

The Rams’ offensive success against Seattle in those two contests was helped along by a slew of turnovers. The Seahawks coughed the ball up a collective seven times in those matchups – six coming via interceptions.

Takeaways are tough to replicate with high variance, especially if Seattle can keep its offense simple and ground centric. That allows the Seahawks to control possession and feeds into the best defense in the NFC.