NFL Picks

The Denver Broncos have had problems dealing with tight ends all season long. They have allowed the ninth-most yards and 11th-most catches to the position group. And they’ve allowed six touchdowns, the same number they gave up to wide receivers all season.

Dalton Kincaid burned them for 83 yards and a touchdown on six catches last week, and Hunter Henry will likely be a focal point of attack for the New England Patriots.

Henry is Drake Maye’s go-to target in the red zone, with his 22 targets inside the 20 being bested on the season by only five other players. Five of those targets have led to touchdowns, and he’s found the endzone in three of his last five games.

Denver is going to blitz Maye early and often, giving Henry one-on-one matchups. I like him to win one of them near the goal line as Maye turns to his safety valve under pressure. 

Denver will have backup QB Jarrett Stidham under center so expect Sean Payton to use gadget plays to keep New England's defense on its heels. Marvin Mims Jr. had eight catches for 93 yards last week and Payton will look to get the ball into the hands of the speedy wideout on Sunday. Mims hasn't logged a rush attempt in his last three games but before that he had a carry in 10 straight games, rushing for 3+ yards in seven of those contests. The Patriots have a stingy run defense but are vulnerable on misdirection plays, allowing a league-high 8.5 yards per rush on counters. 

Kupp was +310 to score a TD last week and while he didn't find the end zone he led Seattle with five receptions for 60 yards. Kupp had 12 red-zone targets during the regular season, with eight of those coming in the final six weeks after Tory Horton suffered a season-ending injury. Kupp was targeted once in the red zone last week but RB Kenneth Walker III carried the scoring with three rushing TDs. The Rams allowed just six rushing TDs during the regular season — the third-lowest number in the league. However, they ranked 19th in passing TDs allowed (26) and with their secondary focused on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kupp could get softer coverage.

Colby Parkinson went off during the second half of the season. He has logged 25+ receiving yards in eight of the last nine weeks, averaging 41.7 receiving yards per game over that span. Parkinson's ascent was partially due to a six-game absence for Tyler Higbee but he has continued to see a high target share with Higbee back in the lineup. In the divisional round, Parkinson out-snapped Higbee 53-8 and reeled in three of seven targets for 57 yards. The Seahawks have a stingy defense but are vulnerable against tight ends ranking 27th in the league in receiving yards per game (63.3) allowed to the position.