NFL Picks

Watson is back as Love’s top target. At 6-foot-4, he’s a jump-ball threat in the red zone and thrives against man coverage, which the Lions run with a depleted secondary. 

A lot has changed since the Packers beat the Lions at Lambeau in Week 1. Green Bay's stop unit has slightly regressed after looking dominant at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the Packers offense has been sapped by injuries to WR Jayden Reed, TE Tucker Kraft, and center Elgton Jenkins. This should be a close game so home-field advantage could make the difference. With Jared Goff under center and their speed at the skill positions, the Lions tend to perform better indoors, especially in front of their fans at Ford Field. The Lions have gone 4-1 SU at home this year while the Packers are 1-4 ATS on the road.

The Chiefs can’t afford to have any stumbles in they want to make the postseason. The Cowboys run the risk of a letdown after a wild Week 12 comeback and play their third game in 10 days on Thursday. Kansas City wins outright.

Hunt is the red zone back even with Pacheco getting healthy. This KC offense is very much about trust. Mahomes and Reid trust Hunt when starring down the end zone. Four straight games with a touchdown and faces a horrible RZ defense from the Cowboys, giving up TDs at a 69% clip inside their own 20-yard line.

The return of Joe Burrow will give a significant boost to the Bengals passing game which bodes well for third-year WR Andre Iosivas. Iosivas logged has more than 60 receiving yards in two of his last three games. He reeled in four of seven targets for 61 yards last week with All-Pro wideout Ja'Marr Chase serving a suspension. Chase is back this week but No. 2 WR Tee Higgins is out, which means another high-volume opportunity for Iosivas. The Ravens are 24th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (231.6) and their defense will likely focus on stopping Chase. That should open things up for Iosivas.

Lamar Jackson hasn't been running with his usual gusto and playing through multiple lower body injuries might be the reason. Since coming back from a hamstring injury he has rushed for less than 15 yards in three of four games while averaging just 2.8 yards per carry over that span.  His latest ailment is a toe injury that caused him to miss practice on Monday. Cincinnati has a brutal defense but does a good job at containing QBs on the ground, allowing just 14.9 rushing yards per game to the position. And with the Bengals 29th in the league in pressure rate, Jackson won't be flushed out of the pocket.

D’Andre Swift’s fumble last week couldn’t have come at a worse time, and it opened the door for rookie Kyle Monangai. After the turnover, Monangai logged nine carries to Swift’s two and handled five red-zone attempts, punching in one of them. He’s been the more efficient red-zone option lately, with eight carries inside the 20 for three touchdowns over the last three games. Swift has zero TDs on six red-zone carries in that span. Monangai’s goal-line role is real, and his between-the-20s usage may now rise. He looks like RB 1B to Swift’s 1A this week, and his TD price is playable down to +200.

Monangai is picking up more and more touches as the Bears split work between he and Swift. In the past three games, he’s been Chicago’s go-to goal line back, scoring in each of those games. 

Chimere Dike operated as the Titans’ No. 1 receiver again last week and now has three touchdowns over his last three games, including two on special teams. He’s been most of Tennessee’s offense in November, and even if Elic Ayomar returns and Calvin Ridley sits, Dike should remain heavily involved against Jacksonville. He also saw two red-zone targets last week and converted both for a touchdown. On the season, he leads the receiver group with nine red-zone looks and six catches. He’s the likely WR1 in a game where Tennessee should be playing from behind.

Jacksonville ranks 12th in scoring with the Titans ranking 29th, allowing more than three touchdowns a game.

Jacksonville’s red zone defense has been poor, with opponents scoring touchdowns on nearly 62% of their visits. And while Tennessee hasn’t cashed in at a high rate, the frailties in this Jaguar secondary raise the odds of scoring chances improving.

The Jaguars should thrive off play action against a struggling Titan run defense. Tennessee also throws the ball at the second-highest rate in the league. The strengths of the two offenses match up perfectly with the weaknesses of the opposing defenses, which makes the low total a bit too low for me. 

 

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's unit has been lousy this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Darnell Mooney to total 8.1 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.. The projections expect Darnell Mooney to be a more important option in his team's air attack in this week's game (25.9% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.8% in games he has played).. Darnell Mooney has posted many more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

The L.A. backup logged seven carries last week while Kyren Williams had 12 for 46 yards, but seven of Williams’ attempts came in the fourth quarter. Corum remains heavily involved in this offense, and with Bryce Young crashing back to earth, the Rams could control the clock on Sunday. Since Week 6, Corum has 58 carries to Williams’ 88, giving him roughly 40% of the workload. This TD price doesn’t reflect that split when Williams is sitting around -140. The red-zone work has also been close. Over the last three games, Corum has four carries inside the five to Williams’ two, and overall red-zone carries sit at seven to six in Williams’ favor. If Corum is getting 40% of the carries and better than half of the red-zone work, he should be priced closer to +200 to +240.

Recency bias has bumped this Week 13 spread from a look-ahead line of Panthers +9.5 to an official opener of +10.5. Given we’re getting a half-point hook on the key number with the home side, I’ll bite on Carolina. While the Panthers offense looked blinded by the primetime lights in San Francisco, the defense held up for as long as it could despite playing almost 38 minutes and missing stud CB Jaycee Horn in the second half (concussion). Carolina scored three takeaways (two from Horn) and checked the 49ers to 2-of-6 success in the red zone. After playing back-to-back road games and three of their last four away from home, Bank America Stadium is a sight for sore eyes for the Panthers. They’ve been much more competitive in Carolina (-1.0 MoV) and get a real home-field edge in Week 13, with L.A. playing a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT) and possibly doing so in the rain. 

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are favored by 6 points.. The model projects the Dolphins to be the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Saints, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.6 per game) this year.. Tua Tagovailoa's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 73.5% to 68.2%.

The model projects the Saints to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.6% pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 128.4 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.

The Cardinals are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games while ranking 28th in defensive success rate. Tampa Bay was a 6.5-point home favorite on the lookahead line before that swung to -2.5 after QB Baker Mayfield was injured in Sunday night's ugly loss to the Rams. He was diagnosed with a low grade sprain in his non-throwing shoulder which means there's a decent chance the tough QB will play on Sunday. Chris Godwin returned from a six-week absence in Week 12, and standout RB Bucky Irving is expected to return this week after missing the last two months. That puts the betting value on the Bucs, who have since moved to -3. I'd bet that number but you can still get the -2.5 at -115 if you shop around. 

Shadeur Sanders isn’t the worst quarterback in football, and Harold Fannin looked like his go-to target last week against the Raiders. The rookie tight end led the team with six targets and caught four for 40 yards. Outside of Quinshon Judkins, he’s the only Cleveland player I trust in Week 13. The Browns ran exclusively in the red zone last week, but they’re likely facing a more negative script on Sunday. Fannin has been as short as +300 for a TD this season, but with this matchup and quarterback play, I’d only take it down to +350.

The 49ers offense faces not only a disruptive Cleveland defense in Week 13 but also some nasty weather. The extended forecast is calling for a mix of rain and snow with wind gusts up to 30 mph and temperatures that “feel like” 27 degrees. Niners QB Brock Purdy is mired in turnover troubles while the Browns will start rookie QB Shedeur Sanders. I’m grabbing the Under early in the week before books take a chunk out of this number due to the forecast.

The Colts have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, but the Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, capable of containing Jonathan Taylor. Houston's offense also gets a major boost this week with franchise QB CJ Stroud expected to return after missing the last three weeks. They won three in a row despite having Davis Mills under center. With Stroud back, they'll be better suited to take advantage of a Colts defense that ranks 24th in success rate. Indy is atop the AFC South, but the final six weeks will be crucial with four games against Jacksonville and Houston. This should be a dog-fight between two division rivals who have a lot at stake. 

The Texans thrive in playing low scoring game and are going to do everything possible to keep this game low scoring so they can stay competitive. 

Things look bleak for the Vikings passing game, with undrafted rookie Max Brosmer likely getting the sacrificial start in Seattle. The Seahawks pass pressure won’t give him much time in the pocket and Kevin O’Connell will lean on Jones as a quick and easy receiving option to help get Brosmer going early as well as avoid pressure. Jones has been targeted more in recent games, with 16 targets for nine catches the past three games. Seahawks have allowed the fifth most rec yds to RBs this season and Jones’ projections sit as high as 22 yards in Week 13.

J.J. McCarthy finished 12-for-19 passing for a measly 87 yards along with two interceptions in the road loss at Green Bay in Week 12. The Vikings has failed to crack 20 points in three straight games and now head to Lumen Field to take on another elite defense. The Seahawks got a bit of a scare in Tennessee on Sunday but still limited the Titans to 17 points on offense, checking them to 4.4 yards per play and sacking rookie QB Cam Ward four times. Sam Darnold takes on his former club and needs to be wary of the Vikings’ blitz-heavy schemes. That means quicker hits and lots of handoffs, with little time in the pocket for deeper strikes to develop. This total opened just shy of the key number of 44 points and is already sinking like a stone in the opening hours of action. Grab the Under 43.5 now, as the next stop is 42.5 with little reason to like the Over.

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football.. When talking about air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a whopping 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.. James Cook's 96.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks an impressive improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.7% figure.. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89%) to RBs this year (89.0%).

The Raiders are the NFL's lowest scoring team, averaging just 15 points per game, and won't put up enough points to hit the Over on the total.

The Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS against their divisional rivals.

Denver sends an elite defense out against Washington and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Broncos are fourth in defensive DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest points per game, so I expect Mariota to struggle Sunday. Of course, Denver also has the highest pressure percentage in the league and paces the NFL in sacks.

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (60.0% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.4 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. This year, the feeble Washington Commanders defense has conceded a massive 74.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.. The Washington Commanders defense has been torched for the 6th-most TDs through the air in the league to running backs: 0.27 per game this year.

The Giants haven’t won on the road all season, and the Pats have rolled off nine straight wins with quarterback Drake Maye pacing the NFL in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage during the run. Plus, New York entered Week 12 ranked 28th in defensive DVOA and has allowed the third-most points per game.

The Patriots are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.3% of their chances: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.