NFL Picks

The Eagles bring the best roster in the league into Week 1, fresh off dismantling Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Dallas, on the other hand, will be getting its first real reps under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer and a retooled staff. Philadelphia not only has the fire power to clear this touchdown spread but this vaunted Philly pass rush – that was the key to containing Patrick Mahomes & Co. in New Orleans – goes up against a revamped Cowboys offensive line with plenty of new pieces. Dallas doesn’t have much of a ground game and will be dropping back a lot, with Dak Prescott pressing to CeeDee Lamb and new WR George Pickens. Philadelphia is able to get pressure without the blitz and will plug up the passing lanes of this Cowboys attack. I'm grabbing this short of the key number of a touchdown and expect this to be above -7 come gameday on September 4.

This AFC West rivalry heads to South America for a Friday game in Brazil. Recent clashes between the Chiefs and Bolts have been snoozefests, with combined scores of 36, 27, and 25 points in the last three encounters. The Chargers will continue to anchor their attack in the run under Jim Harbaugh, facing a talented Kansas City defense led by DC Steve Spagnuolo. Week 1 usually favors the defense, as offenses are working out the kinks. I’ll lean Under in the first international showcase.

The first Sunday Night Football of the season is a barn burner and a potential AFC Championship pairing. The Bills got the best of the Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round last January, thanks in part to Mark Andrews’ infamous dropped 2-point convert. The 27-25 win for Buffalo pushed with the closing total of 52 points. This Week 1 number opened just shy of that Over/Under, without the intensity or deep film study of the postseason. With Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and a slew of talented weapons, I like the Over 51.5 points in this SNF showdown.

As of now, this is a J.J. McCarthy vs. Mason Rudolph battle under center, which might not be the most exciting QB pairing for the Irish crowd. Maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers pick up a passer before this Week 4 showcase, but we’ll work with what we've got. The Minnesota Vikings proved a solid roster can lift the quarterback last season, and Minnesota has plenty of weapons around McCarthy, who missed his rookie campaign due to injury. I’ll lay Minnesota as a short neutral-site chalk.

It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Ravens, who travel to Arrowhead on a short week after a Monday nighter with Detroit. Kansas City will likely be coming off a shit-kicking of the Giants on SNF in Week 3, allowing them to rest starters and pull back the playbook before this huge AFC encounter with Baltimore. The Chiefs have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, while covering the spread in three of those games.

The Vikings play their second straight international game, this time jumping the Irish Sea to play the Cleveland Browns at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Cleveland’s QB rotation is a puzzle box, but we do know the Browns defense will be OK, with Myles Garrett riding a new contract. Minnesota also brings a top-tier stop unit to the UK, so this could be a defensive grinder.

The Denver Broncos are on the up and up, boasting second-year QB Bo Nix and arguably the best defense in the NFL, especially after bolstering the stop unit during free agency and the draft. Meanwhile, the New York Jets will be a team in transition, featuring new head coach Aaron Glenn and putting all their chips in on QB Justin Fields. I like the Broncos sitting just below the key number of a touchdown.

New Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen faces a familiar foe in Sean McVay — his former boss of four seasons. It’s a massive time jump for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be eight hours ahead of Pacific Time in Week 7. The last time McVay’s team was in the UK, it played on the East Coast the week before and stayed out east before jumping the pond. As of right now, I want to lay Los Angeles -3.5, but I’m curious to see what the Rams' Week 6 matchup looks like.

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.