NFL Picks

Buffalo's defense was fantastic last week  but was torched in Week 1 and ranked last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate after Week 9 last year. Buffalo's secondary is extremely banged-up at CB and surrendered 143 receiving yards and a TD to Zay Flowers in Week 1. That weakness could be exploited by the Dolphins and WR Tyreek Hill. Hill racked up 1,799 receiving yards and 13 TDs in 2023, before being limited to six scores last year. The five-time All-Pro is still a dangerous weapon which he proved last week by hauling in six catches for 109 yards. Hill had a 47-yard reception that he likely would have scored on if Tua Tagovailoa hadn't underthrown the ball. 

Cook scored 21 touchdowns (19 rushing and two receiving) in 19 total games last season. This year, he has rushed for 176 yards and three scores through two games. The Dolphins are last in the league in defensive EPA and have surrendered more than 30 points in back-to-back games against the Colts and Patriots. If they couldn't stop those middling offenses, they won't be able to stop a highly-efficient Bills attack. Cook's "anytime TD" price is juiced to -170 but with the Bills RB punching it into the endzone in 14 of his last 17 games (82.4%), that's still great value on an implied probability of 63%. 

Daniel Jones has taken 45% of the Colts’ red-zone carries and four of their six attempts from inside the 5-yard line. That usage alone makes his price a strong buy in Week 3. Head coach Shane Steichen, who helped develop the Tush Push as Philly’s OC, clearly likes using his quarterback in short-yardage spots. Last week, Indy ran QB sneaks on three straight plays near the goal line (one was nullified by a defensive penalty). With the Titans forced to key on Taylor, Jones has multiple paths to a touchdown—designed runs, scrambles, or a call at the 1-yard line.

The Colts crushed the Dolphins in Week 1 before edging the Broncos on a last-second FG last week. New QB Daniel Jones has been impressive and has established an instant rapport with rookie TE Tyler Warren. With Pro Bowl RB Jonathan Taylor piling up yards on the ground, the Colts will move the ball against a Titans D that surrendered 439 yards and 33 points last week. After a dominant performance in Week 1, the Colts defense regressed last week with their best pass rusher (Laiatu Latu) and top CB (Charvarius Ward) sidelined by injuries. Both should be back this week and will help Indy shut down a Tennessee offense still finding its footing under rookie pivot Cam Ward.

I’m anticipating marked improvement on defense from The Black and Golf in Week 3. Pittsburgh allowed the eighth-fewest points per game and ninth-lowest EPA per play while ranking third in PFF defense grade last season, after all.

The Bucs are in rough shape on the offensive line. Starting guard Cody Mauch is out for the season, and both starting tackles remain questionable for Week 3. Baker Mayfield has been under constant pressure—he leads the league in pressure rate at 43.9%, despite averaging just 2.27 seconds to throw. That kind of chaos has forced Mayfield to use his legs. He ranks fifth among QBs in scramble yards and has rushed for 30+ in both games this season. While he hasn’t found the end zone yet, he’s +500 to score a TD this week—a number that feels too long given his usage. He ran for three scores last year, and with the Jets bringing more pressure, he might have to take matters into his own hands again.

The Raiders ran 11 personnel on 79% of snaps last week, and the trio of Jakobi Myers, Tre Tucker, and Dont'e Thornton all posted a route share of 85% or higher. At +350, Tucker is my favorite TD bet. Tucker, the No. 2 WR in this offense right now, saw eight targets and even had a carry for seven yards in Week 2 after scoring in Week 1. The Raiders are throwing at a 66% rate this season, and Geno Smith has already dropped back 77 times. Ashton Jeanty at +100 is the safer option, but with Tucker’s route share, involvement, and the +350 price, he’s the longer shot I want to back this week.

With Jayden Daniels banged up and Austin Ekeler done for the year with a torn Achilles, rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt could see his number called even more against the Raiders. The seventh-round pick is averaging 7.1 yards per carry heading into Week 3, and I expect Kliff Kingsbury to center the red-zone game plan around him, taking the ball out of Marcus Mariota's hands inside the 20s.

The Philadelphia Eagles are listed as 3-point favorites at Pinnacle, but I believe the spread should be closer to Eagles -6.5. This is a tough spot for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be on the East Coast playing outdoors for the second straight week. Their offense looks much more comfortable at home in a dome, but on the road—with crowd noise, outdoor conditions, and one of the league’s best pass rushes—it’s a different story. The Eagles’ offensive line is capable of neutralizing Jared Verse, which will force the Rams’ secondary to shoulder even more of the defensive load.

Blake Corum saw a bigger role last week, playing 30% of the snaps and closing out the game with a goal-line touchdown in the fourth quarter. Kyren Williams is coming off a 351-carry season and is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry through two games. Certainly not explosive. Of the five carries inside the 10-yard line this year, Corum has two (for five yards and a TD), while Williams has three (for eight yards and a TD). Both are trusted inside the 5-yard line. Head coach Sean McVay also said after the game that the 70/30 split between Williams and Corum is “much more in alignment” with how he wants the backfield to look going forward.

Through two games, Allgeier and Robinson are tied with two carries each inside the 5-yard line, but Allgeier is the only one who has converted those into touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson seems more comfortable using Allgeier in short-yardage situations—he has double the number of carries inside the 10 compared to Bijan. Allgeier also closed out the Sunday night game and finished with 16 carries. Even before the final two drives, he had 7 carries to Bijan’s 18, suggesting a roughly 70/30 split—with red-zone work included. This sets up well in a game where Atlanta could once again be running the clock late. At +260 to score, Allgeier offers value in a run-heavy offense. Only three teams in the NFL are running at a higher rate than Atlanta’s 50%, so there’s enough volume for the backup to stay involved.

The Falcons have a two-headed monster in the backfield and while Bijan Robinson gets the fan fare, Tyler Allgeiger could be a starter on most NFL teams. More importantly, he gets red zone snaps. He was a beast versus Minnesota with 16 total carries and was active in the red zone, including a 5-yard TD rumble to put the game away – granted the Vikes were doing that “let them score” and hope for an onside kick. He had a massive day against Carolina in their most recent meeting and I love the +260 payout.

Chase Brown will have Jake Browning under center, and while Browning is bound to make mistakes, he’s capable of moving the offense. Brown should be busy on Sunday against a Vikings defense that’s stronger against the pass than the run. At -120, there’s not much tax to pay for a back who handles all the RB carries and has taken all seven of the team’s red-zone attempts. With Browning at quarterback, I’d also expect Zac Taylor to keep things conservative near the goal line. This is a slight price adjustment—Brown was as short as -160 with Joe Burrow starting—but the switch to Browning might actually boost his volume, including in the passing game.

The Bengals will have Jake Browning behind center and have a serious uptick in class this week after winning close games against the Browns and Jaguars to start the year. Minnesota will have a full week to prepare for the backup QB and shouldn't have any trouble moving the football against the Cincy defense.

This TD prop opened at +140 last week, and I hit it with a five-star approach. He closed around even money, so I’m surprised to see it back at this price. Bhayshul Tuten is getting some run after the Tank Bigsby trade, but he wasn’t a major factor on early downs. Travis Etienne played 80% of the snaps on first and second down. According to Jacob Gibbs on X, Etienne is one of just three backs in the league to gain positive yards on 90% of his carries. He’s also averaging 3.4 yards before contact, second in the NFL behind Jahmyr Gibbs (min. 15 rushes). In Liam Coen’s offense, trusting the lead back is easy—especially near the goal line. Only James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs have more red-zone carries than Etienne this season.

Following the trade of Tank Bigsby to Philly, Bhayshul Tuten has emerged as Jacksonville's clear-cut RB2 behind Travis Etienne Jr. The rookie tallied a touchdown and 100 all-purpose yards against the Bengals in Week 2, and Tuten should thrive against a Houston defense that has allowed 120.5 rushing yards per game during its 0-2 start.

With Jayden Reed out after breaking his collarbone last week, there’s opportunity for more targets to go around, and tight end Tucker Kraft stands out as the best value at +170 or better. He’s led all Packers skill players (RB/WR/TE) in snap share for two straight weeks and posted a team-high 79% route participation in Week 2. Kraft found the end zone again last week and racked up 124 receiving yards on seven targets, including two in the red zone. He’s now caught two touchdowns on just three red-zone targets this season. Given all the wide receiver rotation in Green Bay, Kraft offers the most reliable role at this price and is the best TD bet on the board.

The Packers have put in work in the opening two weeks, scoring victories over fellow NFC contenders Detroit and Washington.

Green Bay now enters Week 3 off a mini bye after blowing away the Commanders last Thursday. This look-ahead line was Packers -7.5 but official openers are at -8.5 and climbing with some shops already dealing -9.

The Browns are 0-2 and just got chewed up by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2. Cleveland pulled veteran QB Joe Flacco and gave rookie Dillon Gabriel a go, which produced some positives. He could get the start next week against this nasty Cheesehead defense.

The Chargers lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) at +11.9%, and their passing attack is spreading the ball well. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen were the top three targeted players in Week 2. All three have topped 100 receiving yards on the season, and the group has combined for five touchdowns—though McConkey has yet to score. My approach to betting Chargers TDs: target the longest-priced wideout of the three. Last week, that was Johnston at +250, and he cashed. This week, I’m going back to him at +235. Johnston leads the WR group with three touchdowns in three games and had a 93% route share in Week 2. The run game isn’t clicking for the Chargers right now, and I’m also not sold on this Denver defense—it faced Cam Ward and Daniel Jones to open the year, then gave up 470+ yards to the Colts last week.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert hasn’t had a turnover-worthy play through two games and ranks second in air yards, third in success rate and eighth in aDot. So, with this spread Under the key number of 3, I want the side the better quarterback is on.

The Seahawks have been far more effective on the ground this season, ranking 11th in EPA per rush compared to 29th in EPA per dropback. Kenneth Walker generated plenty of buzz after Week 2, rushing for 105 yards despite playing just 35% of the snaps. That number should rise this Sunday at home against the Saints, where Seattle is a 7-point favorite. Zach Charbonnet, who’s been splitting snaps with Walker, missed Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury. That opens the door for a bigger workload for Walker in what should be a neutral-to-positive game script. He was PFF’s highest-graded running back in Week 2. In the red zone, Walker is averaging an absurd 6.6 yards per carry. It’s a bit of a mystery why Charbonnet has been getting some of the tough carries. If Charbonnet is ruled out, expect Walker’s TD price to move quickly—potentially dropping to around -145.

Seattle's defense is playing well and won't be tested much by the Saints' lackluster offense. The Hawks will put up points, but they won't allow Spencer Rattler to generate much offense. 

Williams has quietly been great for Dallas to start the season and showed his chops in the passing game against the Giants last week. He caught six of seven balls his way – tied for second most targets for a RB in Week 2 – for 33 receiving yards. He logged the second most snaps among RBs last week and is has run the fourth most routes among RBs so far this season. Chicago could be without its top coverage linebackers in Week 3 as well. Javonte’s projections sit as high as 22 yards receiving.

Dallas faces a Bears team in trouble. Chicago's defense is a disaster and this Ben Johnson offense is struggling to gain ground. The Cowboys defense isn't much better but at least it's established a pass rush in two games. Dallas also has a better balance on offense, getting solid gains from the ground attack. The Bears have injuries bubbling up on defense, leaving big gaps against an explosive Cowboys playbook. And for what it's worth, Dallas' new DC Matt Eberflus was Chicago's head coach last season.

Russell Wilson had the New York offense rolling last week with 506 total yards and 37 points against the Cowboys. It won’t be as easy on Sunday night, but rookie RB Cam Skattebo is trending up. Skattebo logged a 51% snap share, out-carried Tyrone Tracy 11 to 5, and added three targets in the passing game. Most importantly, he’s been the go-to back in scoring range—he’s the only New York RB with any red-zone carries (six total) and converted one of two attempts inside the 5-yard line last week. His TD price is a buy at +180 or better. This could be the last week we see the market this far off—he’s still 100/1 for Offensive Rookie of the Year despite a growing role in maybe an underrated offense if Wilson can keep it together.

This spread is larger than the look-ahead spread (Baltimore -3.5) was back in the summer and I don't think that adjustment is warranted after two weeks. Ravens LB Kyle Van Noy (hamstring) and CB Marlon Humphrey (groin) are a risk to miss Week 3. The final score of the Ravens Week 2 win looked a lot better than what actually went down on the field. Baltimore won 41-17 but amassed only 242 yards (while allowing 323 against) and scored 21 of those points thanks in part to a blocked punt, fumble recovering and interception. Those big injuries and this inflated spread has me leaning toward Detroit as a 6-point underdog on MNF.

As of now, this is a J.J. McCarthy vs. Mason Rudolph battle under center, which might not be the most exciting QB pairing for the Irish crowd. Maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers pick up a passer before this Week 4 showcase, but we’ll work with what we've got. The Minnesota Vikings proved a solid roster can lift the quarterback last season, and Minnesota has plenty of weapons around McCarthy, who missed his rookie campaign due to injury. I’ll lay Minnesota as a short neutral-site chalk.

It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Ravens, who travel to Arrowhead on a short week after a Monday nighter with Detroit. Kansas City will likely be coming off a shit-kicking of the Giants on SNF in Week 3, allowing them to rest starters and pull back the playbook before this huge AFC encounter with Baltimore. The Chiefs have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, while covering the spread in three of those games.

The Vikings play their second straight international game, this time jumping the Irish Sea to play the Cleveland Browns at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Cleveland’s QB rotation is a puzzle box, but we do know the Browns defense will be OK, with Myles Garrett riding a new contract. Minnesota also brings a top-tier stop unit to the UK, so this could be a defensive grinder.

The Denver Broncos are on the up and up, boasting second-year QB Bo Nix and arguably the best defense in the NFL, especially after bolstering the stop unit during free agency and the draft. Meanwhile, the New York Jets will be a team in transition, featuring new head coach Aaron Glenn and putting all their chips in on QB Justin Fields. I like the Broncos sitting just below the key number of a touchdown.

New Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen faces a familiar foe in Sean McVay — his former boss of four seasons. It’s a massive time jump for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be eight hours ahead of Pacific Time in Week 7. The last time McVay’s team was in the UK, it played on the East Coast the week before and stayed out east before jumping the pond. As of right now, I want to lay Los Angeles -3.5, but I’m curious to see what the Rams' Week 6 matchup looks like.

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.