NFL Picks

Baker Mayfield has completed fewer than 20 passes in 10 of 15 games this season, including in each of his last six contests. He did have 19 and 18 completions in the last four games, but he hasn’t really come close to this 31.5 number. Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers got into the mid-20s in passing completions the past two weeks, but Mayfield isn’t nearly as trustworthy as they are. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should look to control the game on the ground as road favorites against the Miami Dolphins.

I don’t love backing Tampa Bay, but Bucky Irving’s price in this matchup is hard to ignore with everything on the line for the Buccaneers. Sean Tucker has taken on a more defined goal-line role, but it’s largely been limited to one-yard plunges and three carries per game. Irving, on the other hand, is handling 20-plus touches in a run-first offense that benefits from Miami having to respect the passing game, leading to softer boxes. That volume gives him a strong scoring profile, especially against a Dolphins defense that allowed six touchdowns on six red-zone trips to Joe Burrow last week. At this number, Irving has well over a 50% chance to find the end zone.

New York has lost three straight games by at least three touchdowns each, and New England should have little trouble extending that streak.

Mac Hollins’ stat line last week was easy to overlook with Stefon Diggs grabbing the headlines, but the usage was real. Hollins finished with 69 yards on seven catches and nine targets, quietly playing a key role in the passing game. He also cashed a $300K incentive with his 40th reception and now sits just four catches away from another $400K bonus. This sets up as a favorable spot for an offense that typically handles bad teams, and New England’s red-zone tendencies only add to the appeal. The Patriots’ running backs have accounted for zero touchdowns over the last three games in the red zone despite nine red-zone carries and three red-zone targets, forcing scoring equity back to the passing game. With New England capable of hanging a big number on Sunday, Hollins’ volume and motivation make him a strong plus-money consideration.

The Browns have given up the second-fewest scrimmage yards per game (277.8), have the third-most sacks, and have the soon-to-be DMVP in Myles Garrett.

They’ve improved on offense, too, with Shedeur Sanders, averaging 16.6 points per game, only marginally more than the 15.8 they average without him. 

However, you have to take their current injuries into account, and they pass the eye test a lot more with Sanders at QB.

He might not be the long-term answer, but he’s solid enough to get the Browns and their excellent defense across the line on home soil.

Make this price make sense. Warren is coming off a two-touchdown performance with 143 rushing yards against Detroit, continues to handle the majority of the workload, and owns the red-zone carries. He was priced as short as +110 for a TD just two games ago, and this number sits roughly 70 cents longer than where he closed last week. The matchup only strengthens the case. Cleveland isn’t a dominant offense capable of forcing negative game script, and the Browns were just gashed by James Cook for 117 yards and two scores on 16 carries. With plenty on the line for Pittsburgh and DK Metcalf sidelined, the Steelers may lean even more on Warren, who has been their most reliable offensive weapon entering Week 17. Even at +150, this would still be worth a bet.

Trey McBride has scored 10 times this season and is by far the most dangerous player on the Cards’ roster. The Bengals are giving up an average of one touchdown per game to tight ends, and McBride has 31 red zone targets this season, only six fewer than the entire Cardinals’ WR corps combined.

Jacoby Brissett had been on fire until finishing last week's game against Atlanta with just 203 yards on 31 pass attempts. Before last week, Brissett had eclipsed his passing yards total in his first nine starts while racking up 40+ pass attempts in his previous six games. Expect a bounce-back performance on Sunday against Cincinnati who is dead-last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate. The Bengals are also 7-point favorites so we could see a negative game script from Arizona who has been passing at an extremely high rate even in neutral game situations.

Expect an Offensive Rookie of the Year push from Saints QB Tyler Shough. Shough didn't start until Week 8 but has come on strong down the stretch. He's thrown for more than 235 yards in five of his previous six game and is coming off a career-high 308-yard performance. He has a great matchup on Sunday against Tennessee who ranks 27th in defensive pass DVOA. The Titans benefitted from facing a third-string QB last week but had surrendered 275.4 passing yards per game in their previous seven contests.

Every single victory in the Saints' three-game unbeaten run has been by at least three points, which means the Saints have covered in each contest. Their last road game was in Tampa, where they walked away with a 24-20 win. This is obviously a small spread, and if New Orleans is going to win like I expect them to, it will be by a minimum of a field goal.

Michael Pittman Jr had a great game against the Jaguars in Week 14.

But in the other five contests in his last six, he’s managed just 117 yards on 15 catches. And since Rivers took over Pittman has seen only 10 targets from 64 routes run, leading to seven catches for 58 yards.

Rivers has completed just 10 of his 24 throws beyond 10 yards so far, and Pittman’s average depth of target with the aging quarterback shows he’s trying to connect with him further downfield than most other receivers.

Their chemistry simply hasn’t been there, and Jacksonville’s dangerous pass rush is going to lead both to shorter throws and uncomfortable throws downfield. I don’t see him repeating his performance from the first matchup where he looked much more in sync with Riley Leonard.

Brenton Strange registered three red zone targets against the Broncos led the team, and puts him at seven over the past three games. To put that in perspective, Lawrence has targeted his receivers a total of 16 times in that same timeframe.

Strange found the end zone last week, where he caught five passes from a season-high seven targets. He also ran 32 routes, the second-most of the season, and is facing a Colts defense that allows the fifth-most catches and second-most yards in the NFL to tight ends. 

Taking the Over for Strange on both his receptions and yards is a safer play, but I think this is a spot where he’s got strong odds to hit paydirt again. With how badly the Colts are playing against tight ends, a price of +210 is once I’m not passing up.  

The Carolina Panthers are getting healthier and while the Seattle Seahawks played last Thursday night, giving the Seahawks a few extra days to heal up as well, both teams should be at relatively full strength considering it’s a late-season matchup. Seattle should be able to keep the train rolling against a team that has had a successful season thanks in large part to luck, clutch play and mirrors.

Seattle’s defense looked very beatable in Week 16, and if Carolina is forced into a pass-heavy script, the ball is going to Tetairoa McMillan at a massive rate. He’s seen roughly every third target when the Panthers drop back, yet this is the longest his touchdown price has been in four games despite scoring in four of his last five. There’s really only one reliable option to back in the Panthers’ passing game, and it’s McMillan. Given his role, usage, and consistency in the red zone, he’s a player I’m comfortable backing weekly at +170 or better.

Try telling Tyrone Tracy Jr. that these are just meaningless late-season contests. Though the Giants have stumbled to loss after loss, Tracy Jr. continues to run hard, and I expect New York to stick with a run-heavy script this weekend against the Raiders.

The Giants rank third in the league with 29.9 rushes per game, and there’s a lot of sense in easing the pressure on Jaxson Dart in the pocket by handing the ball off to capable running backs. So this prop jumps off the screen, with Tracy Jr. racking up 60+ rushing yards in five of his last six outings.

The Giants, even with their injuries, are the better of the two teams, and without Maxx Crosby, I’m confident the Giants score first. Tracy has now had 15+ carries in each of the past two weeks and scored two touchdowns. 

The Raiders have given up 16 touchdowns to opposing running backs in just 15 games, and Tracy is the most likely player to score first.

The Eagles rank 21st in rushing yards allowed and in yards per attempt allowed. Cook has been destroying defenses this season and has a great matchup here. 

The Bills are excellent at defending short and quick passing as well as play action passes and that is where Goedert gets most of his work. 

Through the first 12 games of the year, McCaffrey was averaging 8.6 targets and 65.4 receiving yards per game. However he has failed to crack the 30-yard mark in his last three contests, averaging 4.3 targets with 21.3 receiving yards per game over that span. It isn't that McCaffrey has played poorly, it's simply that the 49ers previously banged-up receiving corps is now healthier, so targets have been more spread around. In addition, the Bears have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards per game (24.2) to opposing RBs. 

Moore has three touchdowns in the past two weeks, and five since November 23. With multiple ways to score and standing out as the top weapon in the passing game, I’m backing him to score on Sunday Night Football.

Last week, Sean McVay deployed three-tight-end sets on an eye-popping 61% of snaps. Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Terrance Ferguson all played at least 65% of the snaps and combined for 13 targets on 51 dropbacks. That usage makes the entire group intriguing from a props standpoint, but Parkinson stands out. He’s coming off a quiet outing that burned some bettors, which should help keep his number in check. THE BLITZ projects him for over 4.5 catches and 47 receiving yards, well above his current lines. Parkinson led all Rams in snap share at 85% and should remain heavily involved in another indoor, must-win spot. Indoor environments boost passing volume and efficiency, and with the Rams clearly committed to featuring their tight ends, Parkinson’s role sets up well. The Over 33.5 receiving yards is my preferred look, and the Over 3.5 receptions at -120 is also very playable.

With Davante Adams likely sidelined again, Xavier Smith should see meaningful snaps as the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. Smith brings true vertical speed with a sub-4.40 40-yard dash and has the ability to get behind defenses, which showed up last week on a 48-yard catch. He’s a classic boom-or-bust option, but the opportunity is there. Smith ran the third-most routes among the Rams wide receivers and only needs one or two connections to pay off at this number. Konata Mumpfield may draw more attention on Monday night, but at +600 or better, Smith offers the better risk-reward profile.