NFL Picks

The Bills have allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs than any team in the NFL, giving up 18 this season. Factor in catches, and running backs have scored 21 total against them. That’s not the only reason Travis Etienne Jr. is the best bet on the board for the Jaguars, as Buffalo has also surrendered the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns, with just 19 through 17 games. Expect the Jaguars’ running back to find what many call the “ETN-zone” at least once.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been hurt at times by scrambling quarterbacks this season, allowing more than 4.6 yards per attempt. When the Buffalo Bills get inside the 10-yard line, Josh Allen’s legs become a major factor. He ranks 13th with 22 carries inside the 10, just four fewer than James Cook this season. Inside the five, Allen has one fewer attempt than Cook’s 14. Although Allen took just one snap last week, he rushed for two touchdowns the week before. With Jacksonville’s run defense remaining stout, expect Allen to scramble on third downs — or simply punch it in via the tush push.

This number is a bit juiced up from recent performances in wins, but in trailing game scripts he is much more involved in the pass game than carries. 

Brown has a catch of at least 24 yards in each of the last five games of the season. 

The Patriots get a big boost with OLB Harold Landry III on track to return after missing two weeks with a knee injury. Landry led New England with 8.5 sacks and notched a sack in three of his last four games. L.A. has struggled in pass protection with offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater out with season-ending injuries. The Chargers allowed 60 sacks during the regular season — the second-highest number in the NFL. 

Justin Herbert's favorite target should get plenty of the ball in a tough playoff environment. With nearly +300 being offered, I’m happy to back this Allen to score in a big game.

No team in the NFL has attempted more field goals than the Texans, averaging over three FGAs per game. Houston’s offense is much more efficient at home compared to on the road, converting on less than 34% of third down attempts and scoring touchdowns on just 45.45% of its red zone trips as a visitor. Fairbairn has recorded eight or more points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including each of the past nine contests. While he sees a spike in scoring inside NRG Stadium, he still averages 8.3 kicking points on the road. Monday’s game at Acrisure Stadium will present mild weather, considering the time of year. Temperatures will hover around freezing with sustained winds at 8 mph and gusts flirting with 20 mph at times. 

Chubb was losing snaps to fellow RB Jawhar Jordan over the past month but with Jordon ruled out for the Wild Card Round (ankle), the veteran rusher jumps back up the depth chart and faces a familiar foe in the Steelers. He’s still running behind RB1 Woody Marks, but Chubb will be more active in the offense Monday. He drew only one carry in both Week 15 and Week 17 before going for 33 yards on six attempts versus Las Vegas in Week 16. Chubb will also have fresher legs after sitting out as a healthy scratch in Week 18. Houston has seen an uptick in handoffs over the past three games and with Pittsburgh bringing blitz and plenty of pressure, the Texans will utilize the ground game to take the heat of QB C.J. Stroud. Player projections vary after the injury update to Jordan, but those forecasts folding in the shift in the backfield peg Chub for 20+ yards with a ceiling at 30 yards.