NFL Picks

Philip Rivers averaged 4.7 air yards per target last week and I do not expect much to change in his second start. 

Indianapolis is down Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward and this pass defense has given up big gains through the air, allowing 12.4 yards per completion over the past three games – tied for fourth most. On the season, Indianapolis’ man-centric schemes have given up the 10th most receptions of 20-plus yards. Jennings leads the 49ers attack in explosive plays, with seven catches for 20 or more yards, and also tops the team with the most targets versus man coverage. With fellow WR Ricky Pearsall once again injured, Jennings’ role in this offense gets a shot in the arm. He’ll be the primary deep threat and while he hasn’t played in many indoor games throughout his career, his yards per reception soars from seven to more than 11 yards in domed venues.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

The Vikings have a QB question on Christmas Day, with starter J.J. McCarthy leaving Week 16’s win over Giants with a throwing hand injury. Minnesota is slated for one of the December 25 games, leaving a very small window for “Nine” to heal up. His X-rays were negative, but the first-year starter wasn’t able to hold a football. And it’s not just McCarthy hurting heading into the holiday. Center Ryan Kelly and running back Jordan Mason are dealing with ailments. The Lions, on the other hand, pissed away a Week 16 home game to the Steelers. That puts their postseason chances in dire jeopardy. Detroit needs help from the other NFC contenders to qualify for the tournament and can’t afford another loss. This spread opened Lions -5.5 at Minnesota and the vig on that spread is climbing, indicating a potential move to the key number of -6 or higher.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.

There will be Costco-sized scoring in this non-consequential non-conference contest. 

We have two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly and two defenses that are already planning their flights to Cancun in two weeks. The Cardinals and Bengals rank No. 1 and No. 2 in passing play percentage and also rank 31st and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback.

Cincinnati is surging with Joe Burrow back and having “fun” playing football, passing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a squash of the Dolphins in Week 16. 

These pass defenses sit near the bottom of most metrics, including allowing a surplus of explosive plays. Arizona enters Week 17 with injuries at all three levels of the defense.

This total opened at 51.5 and that number is still available on Sunday night, but things are moving quick. Some books are already up to 53 points. FYI: Extended forecast for Paycor Stadium looks warm with some moderate winds.