NFL Picks

The Eagles bring the best roster in the league into Week 1, fresh off dismantling Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Dallas, on the other hand, will be getting its first real reps under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer and a retooled staff. Philadelphia not only has the fire power to clear this touchdown spread but this vaunted Philly pass rush – that was the key to containing Patrick Mahomes & Co. in New Orleans – goes up against a revamped Cowboys offensive line with plenty of new pieces. Dallas doesn’t have much of a ground game and will be dropping back a lot, with Dak Prescott pressing to CeeDee Lamb and new WR George Pickens. Philadelphia is able to get pressure without the blitz and will plug up the passing lanes of this Cowboys attack. I'm grabbing this short of the key number of a touchdown and expect this to be above -7 come gameday on September 4.

This is one of the more difficult environments for visiting teams in the NFL. That was on full display late last season, where a Kenny Pickett-led Eagles team embarrassed Dallas by a score of 41-7. While Dak Prescott's return is a positive for the Cowboys, we have to consider the possibility that he might not be at his best right away. His season was cut short in 2024 thanks to surgery on his hamstring, which resulted in him missing nine games. In the games he played in, he wasn’t good as he set career lows for quarterback rating and touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Chiefs have been stewing since February, living with a lopsided loss in the Super Bowl. A win over the Chargers would go a long way in shaking that stink off the franchise. Rarely is Los Angeles outmatched at quarterback and head coach, but the combo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid (with DC Steve Spagnuolo) is greater than Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh. The Bolts’ 2024 defensive results were puffed up by some sub-par passers on the other sideline. The 2025 pass rush lost some teeth from a group that got to Mahomes for six sacks in two meetings last year. With pressure on the passer, Mahomes can make magic and I’ll take that no matter where he’s playing.

This AFC West rivalry heads to South America for a Friday game in Brazil. Recent clashes between the Chiefs and Bolts have been snoozefests, with combined scores of 36, 27, and 25 points in the last three encounters. The Chargers will continue to anchor their attack in the run under Jim Harbaugh, facing a talented Kansas City defense led by DC Steve Spagnuolo. Week 1 usually favors the defense, as offenses are working out the kinks. I’ll lean Under in the first international showcase.

I think there is value in the Jets this season, but this may not be the game. Pittsburgh proved it could be competitive solely on the back of its defense in 2024 and now takes on a former QB who struggled under pressure, facing a foe who has endless amounts of tape on his strengths and weaknesses. Rodgers is well past his expiration date but is the better quarterback in this matchup. He’ll likely need some help from the defense to get the job done, given New York’s stop unit and its improvements. A last-second field goal seems about right in an ugly low-scoring game.

The Steelers defense is always a handful, and this pass rush will have Fields on the move most dropbacks. The Jets are already employing a basic quick-hitting attack under new OC Tanner Engstrand which won’t get anything extra from a disciplined Pittsburgh defense that doesn’t miss tackles. Rodgers is running this new offense for the first time at full speed and beyond DK Metcalf, the skill positions offer fewer threats. Arthur Smith’s playbook failed to score more than 20 points in nine games last season and this total doesn’t have high hopes for Week 1. Week 1 totals of 38.5 points or shorter have stayed Under at a 59% clip since 2000, including a 0-4 O/U count since 2019.

The Miami Dolphins have major issues in the secondary and traded away Jalen Ramsey in the offseason. They also have several injuries to guys that were expected to start, and will be playing several players with little to no experience. 

The Colts' run defense looks like it could be very bad based on what we saw in the preseason. The starters were in the preseason opener against the Baltimore Ravens' second string, and yet they allowed Keaton Mitchell to average 7.6 yards per carry. De’Von Achane and Ollie Gordon will likely give the Colts fits on Sunday, and Achane is capable of scoring in a flash with any opening. 

The Jaguars should win this game, but I expect it will be close. Bryce Young sees the bulk of his starting line return, and should build on a promising end to last season. Trevor Lawrence looks comfortable in Liam Coen's new offense, but offensive line concerns persist. Neither defense is very good, and this should come down to the final drive so I'll take the Panthers getting the three plus the hook. 

The Panthers had the worst run defense in the NFL a season ago, and the Jaguars had the worst pass defense. In addition, Jacksonville's nine turnovers forced were the fewest of any team since the NFL expanded to 17 games. With two improved offensive units, and a kicker in Cam Little who has inside-the-stadium range, I'm expecting a game that will end up in the 50-point range. 

Week 1 odds are a different animal since they take action for four months. Rarely do you see a move away from the favorite without an injury or trade, but that's what we get in this NFC East opener. The Giants opened +7.5 and are down as low as +5.5 at some shops. New York has improved at two key spots: Quarterback and pass rush. Wilson and Winston give the G-Men the deep threat they were lacking and the pass rush will get after Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, forcing him to make tough throws. I'd would have loved to get New York on the other side of a touchdown but I'll grab +6.5 at FanDuel and would take +7 should the spread go back up come gameday.

The G-Men need that pass rush to hurry Daniels and make him throw into shorter options while not allowing deep plays to develop. The second-year QB does see a notable slip in production when pressured and also struggled more versus man coverage in 2024. Shane Bowen’s defense played man at the 11th highest rate last season. With Mike Kafka back to calling plays for N.Y. we could see more ground-and-pound from the Giants as they go after the Commanders weak run stop unit (27th in EPA allowed per handoff in 2024). That would also slow down pace and keep the ball away from Washington’s up-tempo attack.

The Browns went 4-13 against the spread last year, and 40-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco is starting the opener, while the Bengals won five straight – 4-1 ATS – to close out the 2025 season. I’m anticipating Joe Burrow putting too many points on the board for the Browns to hang around Sunday, and Cincy has won and covered three consecutive games and four of the past five against Cleveland.

The Browns averaged a league-low 15.2 points per game last season, and this 47.5 total is the highest in a Browns game since Week 4 of the 2022 season. Yes, the Bengals have the offensive firepower to do the heavy lifting, but the Browns also need to chip in, and Cleveland has only hit its team total Over in five of the last 20 games.

I value landing the Pats below the key number of 3 because head coach Mike Vrabel consistently had his teams outperform the sum of their parts during his tenure with the Tennessee Titans, and I'm expecting the New England defense to show up in the season opener. 

The Raiders and Patriots respectively ranked 27th and 30th in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns and 29th and 30th in points per game last year, so even with some promosing upgrades on and off the field for both clubs, I'm not anticipating either offense hitting the groud running in Week 1.

The Ravens offense is capable of trading shots with the Bills, as shown in their 35-point eruption against Buffalo last September and shootout loss in the AFC Divisional Round. The Bills defense held its own against so-so foes, but hemorrhaged points versus the elite offensive powers. I’m not convinced this stop unit is any better than 2024. Baltimore is the better two-way team and defenses tend to have an edge early on in the year, as do ground-centric playbooks. The Ravens can grind out gains, controlling tempo and clock – keeping Allen sidelined and wearing on a Buffalo defensive front running thin due to injuries and suspensions.

The first Sunday Night Football of the season is a barn burner and a potential AFC Championship pairing. The Bills got the best of the Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round last January, thanks in part to Mark Andrews’ infamous dropped 2-point convert. The 27-25 win for Buffalo pushed with the closing total of 52 points. This Week 1 number opened just shy of that Over/Under, without the intensity or deep film study of the postseason. With Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and a slew of talented weapons, I like the Over 51.5 points in this SNF showdown.

It’s the Vikings’ defense that will make the difference in Week 1. Chicago focused their attention on bolstering the offensive line this offseason. And it’ll need it. Minnesota brings a ton of blitz, cooking up pressure and translating that chaos into sacks and takeaways. The Bears are working in a new system from head coach Ben Johnson, who had success versus the Vikes in Detroit. But Chicago isn’t as talent rich as the Lions and there’s going to be a steep learning curve in Week 1. In a near pick’em game, I’ll take the better defense.

After some lifeless preseason showings, Chicago might not have the same bite in 2025 and that leaves a soft secondary exposed. McCarthy has a great offensive line in front of him and even with the WR corps a bit thin, Jefferson and Hockenson make life easy on the young quarterback. While he didn’t suit up in the preseason, all the reviews on McCarthy out of camp are glowing. And speaking of preseason, Williams and the Bears attack turned heads in the preseason. While it was limited reps, Chicago’s offense looked great and brings plenty of pop to the MNF party. Williams had one of his best games against Minnesota last season and will put points on the board against this low total.

As of now, this is a J.J. McCarthy vs. Mason Rudolph battle under center, which might not be the most exciting QB pairing for the Irish crowd. Maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers pick up a passer before this Week 4 showcase, but we’ll work with what we've got. The Minnesota Vikings proved a solid roster can lift the quarterback last season, and Minnesota has plenty of weapons around McCarthy, who missed his rookie campaign due to injury. I’ll lay Minnesota as a short neutral-site chalk.

It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Ravens, who travel to Arrowhead on a short week after a Monday nighter with Detroit. Kansas City will likely be coming off a shit-kicking of the Giants on SNF in Week 3, allowing them to rest starters and pull back the playbook before this huge AFC encounter with Baltimore. The Chiefs have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, while covering the spread in three of those games.

The Vikings play their second straight international game, this time jumping the Irish Sea to play the Cleveland Browns at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Cleveland’s QB rotation is a puzzle box, but we do know the Browns defense will be OK, with Myles Garrett riding a new contract. Minnesota also brings a top-tier stop unit to the UK, so this could be a defensive grinder.

The Denver Broncos are on the up and up, boasting second-year QB Bo Nix and arguably the best defense in the NFL, especially after bolstering the stop unit during free agency and the draft. Meanwhile, the New York Jets will be a team in transition, featuring new head coach Aaron Glenn and putting all their chips in on QB Justin Fields. I like the Broncos sitting just below the key number of a touchdown.

New Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen faces a familiar foe in Sean McVay — his former boss of four seasons. It’s a massive time jump for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be eight hours ahead of Pacific Time in Week 7. The last time McVay’s team was in the UK, it played on the East Coast the week before and stayed out east before jumping the pond. As of right now, I want to lay Los Angeles -3.5, but I’m curious to see what the Rams' Week 6 matchup looks like.

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.