NFL Picks

DJ Moore scored a touchdown in their last matchup with the Packers and has the better odds of the three receivers for the Bears. 

He has seen continued heavier usage since returning from injury and Love had three TD passes in his last game against the Bears. 

The Bills have allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs than any team in the NFL, giving up 18 this season. Factor in catches, and running backs have scored 21 total against them. That’s not the only reason Travis Etienne Jr. is the best bet on the board for the Jaguars, as Buffalo has also surrendered the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns, with just 19 through 17 games. Expect the Jaguars’ running back to find what many call the “ETN-zone” at least once.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been hurt at times by scrambling quarterbacks this season, allowing more than 4.6 yards per attempt. When the Buffalo Bills get inside the 10-yard line, Josh Allen’s legs become a major factor. He ranks 13th with 22 carries inside the 10, just four fewer than James Cook this season. Inside the five, Allen has one fewer attempt than Cook’s 14. Although Allen took just one snap last week, he rushed for two touchdowns the week before. With Jacksonville’s run defense remaining stout, expect Allen to scramble on third downs — or simply punch it in via the tush push.

This number is a bit juiced up from recent performances in wins, but in trailing game scripts he is much more involved in the pass game than carries. 

Brown has a catch of at least 24 yards in each of the last five games of the season. 

The Patriots get a big boost with OLB Harold Landry III on track to return after missing two weeks with a knee injury. Landry led New England with 8.5 sacks and notched a sack in three of his last four games. L.A. has struggled in pass protection with offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater out with season-ending injuries. The Chargers allowed 60 sacks during the regular season — the second-highest number in the NFL. 

Justin Herbert's favorite target should get plenty of the ball in a tough playoff environment. With nearly +300 being offered, I’m happy to back this Allen to score in a big game.

The market is telling the story here. This passing total has dropped as low as 226.5, with THE BLITZ projecting just 205 yards after being lined at 230.5 and 227.5 at home earlier this season indoors vs. the Cardinals and Raiders. This is an indoor QB now heading outdoors in cold conditions, where his numbers fall off a cliff. CJ Stroud’s splits are stark. Outdoors, over his career, he averages just 199.6 yards per game, and only 214 yards on the road compared to 259 at home. This season, his completion rate drops from 66% to 61% and his passer rating from 101.4 to 85.5. Houston could also lean run-heavy if they control the game flow.

Schultz ranks second in RZ targets for the Texans and the Steelers have given up 11 touchdowns to TEs.