NFL Picks

With Justin Herbert’s hand leaving him to take more snaps out of the shotgun, he’ll lean on his old reliable receiver Keenan Allen on MNF. Allen’s targets have slimmed in recent weeks but a lot of that has to do with the Bolts being involved in blowouts. Tonight’s game is expected to be tighter and Allen thrives versus man and zone, which the Eagles like to mix in coverage. Projections for the veteran WR all sit above his current receiving yard total with most models north of 40 with a ceiling of 55 yards. 

Kimani Vidal may lose some carries with the return of fellow RB Omarion Hampton, but he’ll get a shot at the end zone, as Hampton works his way back into shape.

I expect rookie QB Shedeur Sanders to come back to earth in this road start. He was able to overcome a horrible Raiders defense in his first pro outing but the Bears defense is a much more dangerous test. Chicago’s stop unit was soft to start the schedule but has improved since Week 10, more specifically against the pass. The Bears run a high rate of man-to-man coverage and thrive on takeaways, with a league high 18 interceptions. Sanders has played three zone-heavy secondaries in Las Vegas, San Francisco and Tennessee – three defenses that also sit 24th or worse in EPA allowed per dropback. Sanders, who completion rate dips below 42% versus man coverage, will be forced to throw into tight windows against a ball-hawking secondary.

New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money and it would surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk. The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Josh Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to the Bengals at home in Week 14. New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into their ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines. This is the biggest game in recent history for New England and would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.

The Jets are now travelling to Jacksonville, perhaps without Tyrod Taylor at QB (groin), to face a fierce Jaguars defense in Week 15. Jacksonville is a Top 10 stop unit in many advanced metrics and has held three of its last four foes to 19 points or less. As for the Jaguars offense, there could be a bit of a letdown waiting next Sunday. The team is coming off a massive win over Indianapolis in which it scored 36 points, thanks to turnovers setting the table with excellent field position. This total is already ticking down to the key number of 41, so if you like the Under you should snatch all the points you can right now. Groin injuries take time to heal and any updates on Taylor will tank this total.

The Under is getting 50% of the money despite only 43% of the bets.

The Seahawks are getting 80% of the money despite only 68% of the bets.

The Over has been a winner in five of the Titans past seven games and three of the 49ers past five.

The 49ers have covered the spread in four of their past five games and come in fresh from the bye week.

The Pack rank higher in DVOA while pacing the NFL in EPA per play, and I particularly value the gap in quarterback play. Green Bay QB Jordan Love paced the league in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the second most air yards during his recent three-game NFC North sweep, and his receiving tree is filling out with wideout Christian Watson reemerging as a big-play threat and playmaker Jayden Reed (foot/shoulder) back in action in Week 14. Denver QB Bo Nix is going to have his hands full Sunday afternoon. Green Bay ranks ninth in defensive DVOA while allowing the fifth-fewest yards per play, and Nix checks in 18th in EPA+CPOE composite, and his 6.3 yards per attempt and 63.2 completion percentage are both also below-average marks. The Packers generate pressure at a respectable 12th-highest clip despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the league, too.

Carolina is coming off a Week 14 bye in the thick of the race for top spot in the NFC South, and the Black Cats are trading Under the key number of 3 against the 3-10 Saints. New Orleans is ripe for a letdown spot after playing spoiler and topping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14, while Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is quietly turning the corner with the eighth-highest EPA+CPOE composite dating back to Week 9. Young has aired it out for 8.8 yards per attempt with a  68.1 completion percentage over his past three games, too.

The Vikings have the offensive weapons in place for quarterback J.J. McCarthy to put points on the board, and the Cowboys have averaged 29.5 points per game across the past four since their Week 10 bye. Of course, the Dallas defense has also allowed a healthy 27.3 points per and hit the Over in three of four. Minny played a pair of tough defenses -- the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks -- on the road prior to putting up 31 points on the Washington Commanders in Week 14, and I expect the Vikings to do their part in pushing this total Over the number in against another soft stop unit in Week 15.

Achane has powered this Miami attack during this streak, with the Dolphins handing off at the highest rate in the league the past three games. That’s keep gains short and the clock ticking, translating into a healthy chunk of TOP for the Fins. The Dolphins will go run-heavy again on Monday, especially if conditions stink, as to keep the heat from QB Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh brings blitz at a Top 5 rate and is among the leaders in sacks and QB hits. The Steelers attack has lacked explosive plays with Aaron Rodgers under center. He enters Week 15 with the second lowest intended air yards per attempt among qualified QBs and the offense has the sixth fewest completions of 20 yards or more – just behind the Dolphins.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.