NFL Picks

Kyren Williams averages 73.6 rushing yards per game and has rushed for more than 70 yards in six of his last seven contests. There are a couple reasons why the O/U on his rushing yards is set so low for Thursday; Seattle has a strong run defense and backup RB Blake Corum has been cutting into his touches. That said, Williams picked up 91 yards on 12 carries when he faced this Seahawks stop unit in Week 11. He's also more talented and consistent than Corum which should lead to heavier usage in a game of this magnitude. In addition, there's rain and heavy wind in the forecast which could lead to Sean McVay leaning on his rushing attack. 

Parkinson is coming off a game against the Lions where he had season highs in targets (7), receptions (5), and receiving yards (75). Parkinson has seen his role in the passing game expand with Tyler Higbee on the IR. The tight end has logged 4+ receptions in four of his last six contests and he has a juicy matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has a strong pass defense but is vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the second-most receptions and the fourth-most receiving yards to the position.

The Eagles offense is trying to build momentum down the home stretch and Washington won't present much push back defensively. The Commanders have allowed five passing touchdowns the last two games and Hurts shredded this man-heavy secondary last season. Philly's running backs are banged up, so we could see more passing from the Eagles on Saturday. Player projections all lean toward two touchdown throws from Hurts against a Washington red zone defense giving up touchdowns at a 76.92% clip the past three outings.

Brown stung the Commies in their three meetings last season, going for 65, 95, and 97 yards all while drawing eight or more targets against Dan Quinn’s man-heavy schemes. Brown is the fourth best WR vs man at PFF. He’s been putting up big numbers and had 41 yards on two catches vs Vegas last week before getting pulled in the 4Q of that blowout. Most models sit north of 70 yards receiving on Saturday, facing a Washington defense that’s terrible against the pass.

D’Andre Swift clearly led the backfield last week, getting the first crack at touches and never giving way to Kyle Monangai. That role carried over near the goal line as well, with Swift handling two red-zone carries against the Browns in Week 15 and turning them into 23 yards and two touchdowns. Monangai struggled to get going, while Chicago leaned heavily on Swift’s ability to win on the edge and especially later in the game. He accounted for 10 of the 14 running back opportunities in the second half and appears to be the more trusted option late in games right now. With uncertainty around the Bears’ pass catchers and questions on the Packers’ side as well, Swift at +115 to +120 stands out as my favorite touchdown prop in this matchup. 

Without the star pass rusher, this Packers defensive line is far less dangerous and runs into a Chicago offensive line ranked among the best pass protectors and run blockers in the NFL. The big bodies up front are No. 1 in pass block win rate and No. 4 in run block win rate at ESPN — one of only five O-lines to rank Top 10 in both metrics. Williams, who averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 14, will now have more time to allow deeper plays to develop. And the Bears’ run game is picking up steam. It rushed for 138 yards on 32 carries against Green Bay and is averaging five yards per carry over the past three games. The short turnaround not only compounds the Packers' injuries but puts the schedule squeeze on the Cheeseheads, having to play back-to-back road games and three away games in the last four weeks.

Even with Dalton Kincaid back, Dawson Knox has stayed heavily involved near the goal line. He scored twice last week and had another touchdown erased by a penalty in Week 14. Over the last two games, Knox has four targets inside the 10 compared to three for Kincaid (Jackson Hawes has one). Cleveland has allowed just one quarterback rushing touchdown all season, which points to more Josh Allen passing near the goal line in another must-win spot. Kincaid remains the more dynamic playmaker, but it was Knox who played more snaps and ran more routes last week.

The Under is 5-2 in the Bills' road games and 3-1 in Browns home games as underdog

Jalen McMillan eased back into the lineup in Week 15, running about half the routes and drawing two targets that turned into 38 yards. That usage could climb this week against a Carolina defense that’s struggled, especially if the game environment tilts toward another shootout. ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler expects McMillan’s role to grow in his second game back, noting that the coaching staff is encouraged by what they saw. With Emeka Egbuka showing signs of a rookie wall, McMillan is a candidate for an expanded workload. I’m interested in McMillan as a touchdown play up to +350, but if the price shortens, I’d rather pivot to Chris Godwin at +275 or better.

Tampa Bay has had a mini bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enters Week 16 with its full arsenal of offensive weapons. The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense from the Falcons, who scored 29 points. Carolina’s defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans. The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road. This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes. 

Malik Davis handled one of his larger workloads last week with eight carries and three targets. The production was modest, but he found the end zone after getting two carries inside the 10. That usage may not have been accidental. Javonte Williams left banged up and also scored his 10th touchdown, which triggered a performance bonus. He’s on a one-year deal and may not be eager to push through an injury with the team sitting at roughly a one-percent playoff chance. That opens the door for Davis to get an extended look down the stretch. At +375, even a repeat of last week’s volume is attractive. If he continues to see red-zone work and approaches double-digit carries, the price is too good to ignore.

The past few weeks, L.A. has found another gear. The Chargers aren’t just making it tough to move the chains, they’re making it dangerous. They’ve recorded 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and forced three fumbles (recovering one of those loose balls) during their three-game winning streak. The Bolts are a Top 5 passing defense and their zone-centric schemes don’t allow anything deep, checking rival QBs to the fewest total air yards and allowing the fourth lowest completion rate in the land. Dallas’ offense is reliant on over-the-top shots, especially with the way the Cowboys’ defense hemorrhages yards and often has this team involved in shootouts. The Cowboys are a Bottom 5 pass defense no matter how the advanced metrics slice it.

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. Jeremy Ruckert's 87.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a remarkable boost in his receiving ability over last year's 66.4% mark.

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. The Saints defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

The Vikings have been ineffective running the ball near the goal line, to the point that C.J. Ham handled the one-yard touchdown carry last week. In fact, J.J. McCarthy matched all Vikings running backs combined in carries inside the 10 and has now scored two rushing touchdowns across his six starts. This is also an offense that loves to pass in the red zone. He’s in a strong spot to add to that total against the Giants, who allow the most quarterback rushing yards per game and have already surrendered four QB rushing touchdowns this season. Marcus Mariota ran 10 times for 43 yards last week, and Caleb Williams went for eight carries, 63 yards, and a score four games ago. Those are clean comps for McCarthy’s rushing upside on Sunday. Look for his Over 18.5 rushing yards, as well. I'm playing this to +320/+330.

Each of the last four Giants games have gone Over the total. 

The Chiefs may be out of the playoff picture, but there’s no sign they’re packing it in. Isiah Pacheco’s role near the goal line remains encouraging after he handled five of the team’s seven red-zone carries last week and led the backfield with 11 total rushes. The efficiency wasn’t there, but the matchup improves significantly against Tennessee. Losing a more creative quarterback in the red zone and turning to Gardner Minshew should also funnel more looks to the run game. I make the fair price on this closer to +190 to +200.

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Travis Kelce has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack this year (19.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (24.6%).. Travis Kelce's 4.8 adjusted catches per game this season represents a remarkable reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 6.1 figure.

Whether there’s a QB change or not, Achane is getting the rock against the Bengals. Miami gets to come back to sunny Florida after a bad effort in the cold at Pittsburgh Monday. Achane ran just 12 times for 60 yards, with the Fins having to go pass heavy playing from behind. And that’s just not what Miami wants. This Dolphins attack has been the most run-centric offense in the second half of the season and takes on the Bengals brutal run stop. Cincy sits at the bottom of most run stop measurements and has allowed the second most runs of 20 yards or more on the season. Achane had gone Over 80 yards in four straight before MNF.  

This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a massive 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off a six-touchdown performance, and Brian Thomas looks back to his 2025 form. He found the end zone last week and led the team in red-zone usage with three targets, including two inside the 10. It's a great price, and with Jakobi Meyers likely drawing defensive attention and the market still lagging on Thomas, Week 16 sets up as a strong buy spot. For a receiver who scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie, +200 or better is a number worth taking.

Lawrence has a big “prove it” game in Denver and takes on an elite defense that gets even stingier in the red zone. We’re seeing him have more freedom to tuck and run in Liam Coen’s offense, which has led to six rushing touchdowns, including one last week against the Jets. He’s third among QB in RZ carries with 19 behind Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, yet doesn’t carry the same ATTD prices as those dual-threats

The Cardinals are fifth in the NFL in pace, while the Falcons are seventh, and with both teams eliminated from the playoffs, expect unenthusiastic tackling down the stretch. Arizona is 8-2 O/U in its 10 games while Atlanta has gone Over the total in six of its last seven. The Falcons are 23rd in the league in defensive dropback success rate, which is bad news against a pass-happy Arizona attack that has been slinging the ball with Jacoby Brissett. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 31st in defensive success rate and have surrendered more than 40 points in four of their last six games. They are 25th in DVOA against the run, so Bijan Robinson will rip off big plays on the ground.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 136.1 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to throw 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. The Atlanta O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to throw 38.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.. C.J. Stroud's 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last year's 61.0% figure.. This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a staggering 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Jaylen Warren was dealing with an illness on Monday night and likely gave up some volume because of it. Kenneth Gainwell finished with 20 touches to Warren’s 15 and made more of his opportunities. Even so, it was still Warren who handled all three running back carries in the red zone. With an extra week to recover, Warren should be in a better spot physically in Week 16 and is positioned to keep that red-zone role in a game carrying the highest total on the board at 52. I wouldn’t play this any lower than +115 to +120.

Gibbs has seen his rushing output tempered by recent games turning into shootouts and running into some stiff defenses. He’s done plenty of damage through the air but with Detroit a touchdown home fave to Pittsburgh, game script says more running for the Lions. The Steelers run stop isn’t great, sitting in the back half of the league in most metrics and giving up about five yards per carry over the past three games. Now they have a short turnaround with travel to Detroit. Gibbs projections flirting with 80 or more yards with a ceiling of 87. 

Who says no to a primetime quarterback rushing touchdown from an MVP candidate? The New England QB is coming off a four-carry, 43-yard rushing effort and scored twice on runs from seven and eight yards out. He goes from facing Josh Allen to Lamar Jackson, so the pace and adrenaline should remain high on Sunday night. Over the last three games, Maye has three red-zone carries and has turned two of them into touchdowns. That matches Rhamondre Stevenson’s usage and is just one fewer carry than TreVeyon Henderson. Coming off a two-TD game, his +360 price is a four-week high and well above his +260 average across that stretch, making it a strong buy.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

Once a season, touchdown bettors have to take a swing on 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and this might be the spot. The offense is back to full strength, Brock Purdy looked refreshed coming out of the bye, and Juszczyk is another week removed from a rib injury. He logged a season-high 46 offensive snaps last week and hasn’t scored since Week 3, which helps keep the price in check. Juszczyk remains a strong pass-catching option who can still win on a wheel route, and he has seven games with double-digit receiving yards this season. Indoors against an overrated defense that may not account for the fullback near the goal line, this sets up as a worthwhile long-shot look. A half-unit.

Right now, the 2nd-least pass-centric team in football (55.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.. The projections expect the Colts to run the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.