NFL Picks

The Bucs are allowing a league-high 53.9 receiving yards per game to the RB position. Robinson is third on the Falcons in receiving yards, averaging 46.3 yards per game. Specific to this number of 36.5, he’s topped it in nine of 13 games. He tends to have a high ceiling, as he’s hit 50+ receiving yards in six games, including in a Week 1 matchup vs Tampa Bay where he reached 100 receiving yards.

The Falcons are coming off a 37-9 loss to Seattle and they are now 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games. With quarterback Michael Penix and No. 1 WR Drake London sidelined, this team has collapsed. The only thing Atlanta's offense has been able to do is run the ball, but Tampa Bay is fourth in the league in defensive rush EPA and success rate. The Falcons rank 24th in defensive success rate, and the Bucs are getting healthy on offense. RB Bucky Irving returned in Wk 13 after missing two months, and Pro Bowl LT Tristan Wirfs should be back on TNF after missing Sunday. The Bucs desperately need a win to stay atop the NFC South, and they'll get it in emphatic fashion against a Falcons squad that has quit on Raheem Morris.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.6% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect Jaxson Dart to throw 29.4 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Jaxson Dart comes in as one of the worst passers in football this year, averaging 156.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.6% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. Wan'Dale Robinson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents a noteable regression in his efficiency in space over last year's 3.9% rate.

I expect rookie QB Shedeur Sanders to come back to earth in this road start. He was able to overcome a horrible Raiders defense in his first pro outing but the Bears defense is a much more dangerous test. Chicago’s stop unit was soft to start the schedule but has improved since Week 10, more specifically against the pass. The Bears run a high rate of man-to-man coverage and thrive on takeaways, with a league high 18 interceptions. Sanders has played three zone-heavy secondaries in Las Vegas, San Francisco and Tennessee – three defenses that also sit 24th or worse in EPA allowed per dropback. Sanders, who completion rate dips below 42% versus man coverage, will be forced to throw into tight windows against a ball-hawking secondary.

This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bears, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.. The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.5 per game) this year.. The Browns linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 40.0 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (259.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens offense has played at the 5th-most sluggish tempo in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 30.08 seconds per snap.. Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 30.4 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Ravens grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year.. Lamar Jackson's 187.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year reflects a noteworthy regression in his passing talent over last year's 243.0 figure.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Dalton Schultz's pass-catching performance been refined this year, notching 4.4 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 3.0 last year.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects C.J. Stroud to attempt 36.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-most out of all QBs.

New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money and it would surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk. The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Josh Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to the Bengals at home in Week 14. New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into their ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines. This is the biggest game in recent history for New England and would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.

The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Khalil Shakir has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 20.2% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among WRs.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the best in football this year.. Khalil Shakir checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an impressive 78.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.. This year, the deficient Patriots pass defense has surrendered a massive 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

The Jets are now travelling to Jacksonville, perhaps without Tyrod Taylor at QB (groin), to face a fierce Jaguars defense in Week 15. Jacksonville is a Top 10 stop unit in many advanced metrics and has held three of its last four foes to 19 points or less. As for the Jaguars offense, there could be a bit of a letdown waiting next Sunday. The team is coming off a massive win over Indianapolis in which it scored 36 points, thanks to turnovers setting the table with excellent field position. This total is already ticking down to the key number of 41, so if you like the Under you should snatch all the points you can right now. Groin injuries take time to heal and any updates on Taylor will tank this total.

The Under is getting 50% of the money despite only 43% of the bets.

The Seahawks are getting 80% of the money despite only 68% of the bets.

The Over has been a winner in five of the Titans past seven games and three of the 49ers past five.

The 49ers have covered the spread in four of their past five games and come in fresh from the bye week.

The Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL at 11-2 and they shouldn't be underdogs against anybody at home, especially since they're 6-0 with a scoring margin of +10.0 ppg at Mile High Stadium, where they benefit from a significant home-field advantage due to elevation. The Broncos have an elite stop unit that ranks second in the league in defensive success rate. They've piled up a league-high 55 sacks, and that pressure will make things tough for Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Take the Broncos at plus money in a game where they should be slight favorites or a pick'em at worst. 

The Pack rank higher in DVOA while pacing the NFL in EPA per play, and I particularly value the gap in quarterback play. Green Bay QB Jordan Love paced the league in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the second most air yards during his recent three-game NFC North sweep, and his receiving tree is filling out with wideout Christian Watson reemerging as a big-play threat and playmaker Jayden Reed (foot/shoulder) back in action in Week 14. Denver QB Bo Nix is going to have his hands full Sunday afternoon. Green Bay ranks ninth in defensive DVOA while allowing the fifth-fewest yards per play, and Nix checks in 18th in EPA+CPOE composite, and his 6.3 yards per attempt and 63.2 completion percentage are both also below-average marks. The Packers generate pressure at a respectable 12th-highest clip despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the league, too.

Carolina is coming off a Week 14 bye in the thick of the race for top spot in the NFC South, and the Black Cats are trading Under the key number of 3 against the 3-10 Saints. New Orleans is ripe for a letdown spot after playing spoiler and topping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14, while Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is quietly turning the corner with the eighth-highest EPA+CPOE composite dating back to Week 9. Young has aired it out for 8.8 yards per attempt with a  68.1 completion percentage over his past three games, too.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 54.4% of their chances: the 11th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Carolina's defense grades out as the 6th-best in football this year as it relates to making interceptions, averaging 0.95 per game.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Carolina's CB corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with an excellent 69.5% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 90th percentile.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 134.6 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. The model projects Matthew Stafford to throw 39.3 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.

The Vikings have the offensive weapons in place for quarterback J.J. McCarthy to put points on the board, and the Cowboys have averaged 29.5 points per game across the past four since their Week 10 bye. Of course, the Dallas defense has also allowed a healthy 27.3 points per and hit the Over in three of four. Minny played a pair of tough defenses -- the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks -- on the road prior to putting up 31 points on the Washington Commanders in Week 14, and I expect the Vikings to do their part in pushing this total Over the number in against another soft stop unit in Week 15.

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Right now, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (63.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.

Achane has powered this Miami attack during this streak, with the Dolphins handing off at the highest rate in the league the past three games. That’s keep gains short and the clock ticking, translating into a healthy chunk of TOP for the Fins. The Dolphins will go run-heavy again on Monday, especially if conditions stink, as to keep the heat from QB Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh brings blitz at a Top 5 rate and is among the leaders in sacks and QB hits. The Steelers attack has lacked explosive plays with Aaron Rodgers under center. He enters Week 15 with the second lowest intended air yards per attempt among qualified QBs and the offense has the sixth fewest completions of 20 yards or more – just behind the Dolphins.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.