Prediction markets believe James Talarico is increasingly likely to win one of two U.S. Senate seats in Texas here on Election Day 2026.
While the incumbent John Cornyn was a Republican, Talarico, a Democrat, is in the good graces of prediction market sites.
Talarico (D), only 37, served in the Texas House of Reps. since 2018. He is racing against Republican Ken Paxton to assume the seat vacated by John Cornyn (R), who lost the primary.
Kalshi prediction market traders have taken a special interest in the ongoing run-off. Nearly $90 million in trades were processed as of Tuesday morning, the most of any U.S. Senate race.
An FAQ answer on Kalshi’s election hub page claims that prediction markets get sharper as an election draws closer. Talarico was only given a 65% chance of winning his campaign one week ago, but he’s now up to 73% with a 2.9% margin forecast, according to Kalshi’s data at the time of writing. Paxton, conversely, has a 28% chance.
- Talarico is surging in prediction markets
- Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the primary
- No race generated more trading interest at Kalshi
Prediction markets gained traction after the 2024 Presidential Election because they correctly called President Donald Trump’s return to the White House long before polls, which believed the race was a “toss-up.” However, polling averages also show Talarico with a 49.2% chance of winning the vacant seat, while Paxton has only a 45.5% likelihood.
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Talarico (D) vs. Paxton (R) prediction
Talarico is running on a platform that consists of a proposed $15 minimum wage, expanded family tax credits, higher taxes on the wealthy, and a goal of reducing corruption by banning super and corporate PACs, partisan gerrymandering, and congressional stock trading.
Paxton is focused on securing the border by completing Trump’s proposed wall, offering health and home-purchase tax deductions, and adding a Child Tax Credit and permanent Trump accounts.
Prediction markets aren’t always correct, but growing support for Talarico and the disparity in fundraising success between him and Paxton suggest he will be announced as the winner in the midterm elections.
My pick for Talarico vs. Paxton: James Talarico ($0.73) | TRADE THIS MARKET ON KALSHI
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More midterm election battleground states odds
Senate control races and Governors’ Mansion races across America will come down to key battleground states. With statewide races heating up everywhere, many key states have plenty of interesting races.
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