Donald Trump remains a crucial factor in 2026 midterm odds despite not being a candidate. These midterms will significantly affect Trump's ability to govern and implement his agenda, and if Democrats win the Senate, they would also block him from appointing judges and ambassadors.
Kalshi and Polymarket offer Donald Trump odds for the 2026 midterms, including impeachment odds, what the various outcomes mean for Trump, and why Trump is the most important figure in 2026, despite not being on the ballot. For the latest odds and market predictions on Trump odds 2026, read on.
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Latest Donald Trump 2026 Midterm Prediction Markets
| Market (Kalshi) | Yes odds | Trading volume |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats win the House | 94% | $220 million |
| Democrats win the Senate | 74% | $155 million |
| Democrats sweep Congress | 74% | $100 million |
| Trump impeached by Aug. 1, 2027 | 50% | $5.2 million |
| Trump approval-rating contracts | Varied | $4 million |
Odds of Democrats winning the Senate are stabilizing, as the polls continue to show Democratic leads. Democrats have remained prohibitive favorites to win the House, with their lead hitting 94% as the generic ballot continues to improve for Democrats. If both chambers of Congress flip blue in November, Trump will face plenty of consequences, including a potential impeachment in 2027.
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How will Donald Trump impact the 2026 Midterm Elections?
Donald Trump’s control of the GOP has meant that his endorsement has almost always governed Republican politics. He is a central force in GOP politics with no modern comparison, and his endorsements have backed many of the candidates running in 2026. And that record is spotty, especially as the Trump 2026 midterms approach.
Trump’s approval rating means he is underwater in Georgia, Maine, and Michigan, traditional swing states where Republicans are running away from the President. But unlike in 2018, Trump is no longer a clear-cut asset in redder states like Kansas or Texas.
In 2018, voters opposed Trump because of his personal indiscretions and his moral failings, while giving him a positive approval rating on the economy. Now, with tariffs hurting farmers and prices higher due to tariffs and his war in Iran, Trump’s ratings on the economy are worse than his overall approval ratings, making it hard for Trump to positively help Republicans. Trump midterm election predictions are bleak in large part because Trump is so unpopular on the economy.
Will Trump help Republicans keep control of Congress?
Trump is the reason Republicans are in trouble of losing the Senate. Holding the House was always going to be a nearly impossible task in 2026 given the narrow 220-215 majority Republicans won in 2024, but the Senate would not be in play if Trump wasn’t so deeply unpopular.
To win the Senate, Democrats need to make a net gain of 4 seats. North Carolina is close to an auto-flip with Roy Cooper, but the next three seats are either Maine, which, while voting for Kamala Harris, has the strongest GOP incumbent in Susan Collins, or some combination of Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa, all of which voted for Trump by double digits in 2024. If Trump wasn’t so unpopular, Democrats wouldn’t even have a chance at winning the Senate.
Democrats need to win at least two Senate seats in states Trump won by double digits, which makes the Senate map tough, but Trump’s approval ratings are low enough that Democrats’re favored in enough seats to flip the chamber.
Which midterm races could be most influenced by Trump?
Trump’s low approval ratings have meant that Democrats are now in play to win seats in states Trump won by double digits, like Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas. Democrats have run good candidates in many of those states, including multiple who have won red states before, but they’re competitive in this cycle because Trump’s approval is so bad that those double-digit R states have become in play.
Even with the same candidates, Democrats would have no chance if not for Trump’s low approvals opening the door to winning those double-digit Trump states.
Trump approval rating odds ahead of the midterms
Trump’s approval ratings in 2026 have been bad, and getting worse. Trump’s approval currently sits at 37% in Nate Silver’s average, against 60% disapproval. Trump approval odds have been stable, and the market doesn't expect any meaningful recovery at this point. The war in Iran has significantly deteriorated Trump’s approval, as high gas prices and rising food prices from the diesel spike drag down Trump approval rating in 2026. Things are getting worse, not better, and the midterms are only a week away.
Unpopular Presidents usually have a very bad night at the polls on Midterm nights, especially during a president’s second term. George Bush was deeply unpopular in 2006, with his approval rating similarly in the 30s, and lost both chambers of Congress. Trump’s first midterm saw his approval ratings in the low 40s, and he suffered a 40-seat loss in the House, though a favorable Senate map helped the GOP gain seats.
Joe Biden’s lackluster approval ratings didn’t drag Democrats down as much in 2022, but that was a unique opportunity for Democrats, who ran against the Republican Supreme Court’s striking down of Roe v. Wade and made it less of a traditional midterm, which usually serves as a referendum on the sitting President’s party.
Trump impeachment odds after the 2026 midterms
Assuming Democrats win the House, as they’re overwhelmingly likely to do, Trump's impeachment odds are roughly a toss-up by Aug. 1, 2027. The newly elected House of Representatives starts sitting on January 3rd, and could launch investigations fairly immediately. The question is not whether Democrats have the votes to impeach him in the House; it’s whether House leadership decides to bother, with no indications that Senate Republicans want to remove him.
The other question would be what to impeach him for. The Constitution’s “high crimes and misdemeanors” is intentionally vague, leaving Congress to adjudicate what is and isn’t worthy of impeachment. Democrats would have to pick which of their many grievances against Trump to go after him for - from the war in Iran to tariffs to ICE agents deporting and killing Americans to any number of other things. But Trump is the President, and more Americans voted for him than voted for Kamala Harris, and trying to impeach him is a risk.
Could Democrats impeach Trump if they win the House?
Democrats could impeach Trump if they win the House, but that is not clear yet. Impeachment in the House requires a simple majority to vote for it, and any member can bring articles of impeachment at any time. Unlike in the Senate, there is no trial, and the House does not need a supermajority to impeach. That is why, despite impeaching Trump twice and Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson once, no President has ever been removed from office.
Whether Democrats would impeach Trump is an open question. Democrats would likely think Trump deserves impeachment given his conduct in office, but Democrats have already impeached him twice and gained no benefit from having done so, either politically or in terms of governance. He’s still the President, and he still won an election after those two impeachments. Whether Democrats will try again is unclear.
Covers 2026 Midterm Election hub
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How could the midterm results affect Trump's policy agenda?
One of the biggest impacts of the midterms will be on Trump’s policies afterward. Trump’s control over Congress will likely be weakened, if not almost entirely curtailed, creating big problems for many policy fights Republicans have wanted to win.
Cryptocurrency is one area where Republicans are trying to keep a relatively loose leash on the industry. Crypto industry Super PACs have spent hundreds of millions trying to elect pro-crypto Republicans, and a Democratic victory - especially in Ohio’s Senate race, where Sherrod Brown lost in 2024 in part because of crypto millions spent against him - would return pressure on tightening disclosure laws and ending loopholes.
AI is another area where Republicans are at odds with the increasing American tide. Democrats are mostly uniformly anti-data center, and with the tech industry embracing Trump, Democrats won’t be dying to help out Altman, Musk, and the rest.
Immigration funding will be a major fight in the next Congress, as Democrats seek to impose accountability on ICE, claw back funding Republicans passed in 2026, and neuter the immunity laws Republicans passed to help federal agents who break the law face no consequences.
The Trump tax cut will be a major source of intrigue, as Democrats will seek to lower the exploding two-trillion-dollar deficit by returning tax rates to 2024 levels. Trump will have significant ability to fight back with the veto pen, but if Trump wants federal funds to keep flowing, he might have to agree to undo some of the tax cut.
And on the war in Iran, Trump is likely going to have House and Senate resolutions calling for an end to the war, and a Congress that tries to limit defense funding for the war. That said, it won't be easy to stop, as Trump is following Barack Obama’s established precedent of avoiding Congressional approval for missile strikes.
Donald Trump 2026 midterm predictions: What happens next?
Donald Trump’s ability to govern will be directly affected by the 2026 midterms. If Republicans were somehow able to keep control of both chambers despite these disastrous polls, they would be emboldened to do whatever they want and whatever Trump wants, confident that there won’t be any political fallout for it.
If Democrats win both chambers, as they’re favored to do in 2026 midterm odds, then Trump’s agenda will crash and burn. Trump will be reduced to a lame duck President, passing annual budgets and garnering a few bipartisan pieces of legislation, but fundamentally at the whim of Democrats to do much of anything. If this comes true, most legislation in the final two years will be bipartisan, as any bill or appointment would need sign-off from both Democratic leadership and Trump to pass and avoid a veto.
If Democrats only win the House, Trump’s power would be curtailed but not stopped. Legislation would need Democrats, but judicial appointments, ambassadorships, and Supreme Court nominations would need only GOP votes to pass. If Republicans hold the Senate, Trump would likely replace Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas within two years, locking in a 6-3 Supreme Court majority for decades.
Trump midterm FAQs
Donald Trump is not a candidate in the 2026 midterms directly, but the results will be hugely important for Trump. The future of his legislative agenda, his ability to appoint judges, and even a potential impeachment hinge on the results in November.
If Democrats win either the House or Senate, Trump will be unable to pass any legislation at all without Democrats enabling it. If he loses the Senate, however, his Presidency is in even more trouble, as his ability to confirm Cabinet members, judges, Supreme Court appointments, and even Ambassadors will be subject to Democratic approval.
Republicans are heavy underdogs to win in 2026 midterm odds. They are extraordinarily unlikely to win the House, and are clear underdogs in the Senate, even as Democratic odds are lower in the Senate than in the House.
Democrats impeached Donald Trump in the House in 2019, though Trump was later acquitted in his Senate trial in early 2020. A Democratic House majority could choose to impeach Trump again, but removal from office would require 67 Senators to agree, making removal from office almost impossible.
Both Kalshi Trump odds and Polymarket Trump odds expect the GOP to suffer significant losses this year. Republicans are in deep trouble after a difficult two years, and the expectation is for a blue wave that will see Republicans almost certainly lose the House, and likely - but not certainly - lose the Senate.
With Trump’s approval ratings in the 30s, Republicans are more vulnerable this time than they were in 2018, the last time there was a midterm with Trump as President. His mediocre approval ratings have meant Democrats have chances to win in states Trump won by double digits, like Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and others.
The 2026 midterm elections are Tuesday, November 3rd.
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