Are the Rams really as bad as they looked in Australia, especially now without Myles Garrett? And are the Giants as advertised after their prime-time showing last week, ready to send Matthew Stafford to an 0-2 SU start to the season?
There is a lot to break down in my Giants vs. Rams prediction for Monday Night Football, including whether the Rams should be more than 7-point favorites and if the total is falling for good reason.
These are my favorite NFL picks for MNF on September 21.
Giants vs Rams prediction: Under 48.5
I know an Under to wrap up Week 2 isn't getting the blood flowing, but look at what happened to the New York Giants last Sunday night. Dallas and New York combined to go 17-for-22 on third down and scored on all seven of their combined red-zone trips. That game went Over by a half-point on its closing total of 47.5. There is a reason 48.5 is on the other side of a key number.
The Giants will suck the clock with a new-look offense that finished second in Week 1 in success rate, and they face a Los Angeles Rams defense without Myles Garrett that ranks third-worst in success rate. The Giants will sustain drives, but finishing them won't be as easy as it was last week.
The Rams' offense isn't one that scares me from an explosive-play standpoint. They ran 3-TE sets at a 38% rate in Week 1, the second-highest mark, and still had a -13.89 pass rate over expected in a losing effort. That's a lot of running and a lot of tight ends. This projects as a slow game, and the Rams could still need some time to get up to 2026 speed on offense.
COVERS INTEL: The Giants signed two cornerbacks off the street this week due to injuries to three of their better defensive backs. However, the Rams used a lot of heavy tight-end sets in Week 1 and might not change personnel offensively to take advantage of those injuries. With the linebackers likely covering Los Angeles' tight ends on 35% or more of the snaps, the Giants might just get away with an early-season cluster of injuries because of their opponent's offensive tendencies.
Giants vs Rams combo
Colby Parkinson led the Rams' TE stable in snaps (75%) and routes (59%). He wasn't very active, but the entire offense struggled in Week 1. Only the Bills ran 3-TE sets at a higher rate than the Rams.
Jaxson Dart is moving well in the pocket and getting a great combination of scrambles and designed runs. Dart loves the bright lights.
Finally, Isaiah Likely's props have not adjusted to his new role in this offense. An indoor setting and a likely trailing game script only help.
Giants vs Rams combo
- Colby Parkinson TD
- Jaxson Dart TD
- Isaiah Likely Over 45.5 receiving yards
TOP PICK
Giants vs Rams player prop: Jaxson Dart 30+ rushing yards — YES
Jaxson Dart isn't getting his rushing upside priced properly. He scrambled five times last week and added three designed runs for 54 yards. He also had three kneel-downs and lost five total yards, all in a game where he led wire-to-wire.
Now he'll likely be playing from behind, increasing his passing rate, which should, in turn, increase his scrambling chances. He also likely won't lose five yards on kneel-downs as a touchdown underdog.
The projections at Covers are calling for 37.6 rushing yards and Dart to be the third-most active QB rusher in Week 2 at 7.2 carries.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 1-2, 1.08 units
- Combos: 0-1, -1 unit
Giants vs Rams odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Giants +7.5 | Rams -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (48%) | Under 48.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Giants 26% | Rams 75%
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Giants vs Rams weather
This is an indoor game at SoFi Stadium.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Giants vs Rams trend to know
The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Rams.
How to watch Giants vs Rams
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif. |
| Date | Monday, Sept. 21, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN/ABC |
Giants vs Rams latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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