New Orleans has already been run over once, and now Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are next in line. Baltimore enters Sunday’s matchup as an 8.5-point home favorite at M&T Bank Stadium, setting up a brutal trench test for the Saints.
My Saints vs. Ravens prediction spotlights a Tyler Shough prop in my favorite NFL picks for Sept. 20.
Saints vs Ravens prediction: Ravens -8.5
I'd trade the Baltimore Ravens up to -9 (52%) because the Detroit Lions closed as -7 favorites vs. the New Orleans Saints last week, and Baltimore is at least 2.5 points better than Detroit on a neutral field.
The Ravens have the league's best rushing attack, and the Lions ran all over the Saints last week. Apparently, RB Derrick Henry doesn't get old, and QB Lamar Jackson is the most dangerous running quarterback in the NFL, while Lions QB Jared Goff is one of the least athletic quarterbacks.
Last week, Henry and Lamar combined for 184 rushing yards on 31 carries. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 156 yards on 29 carries vs. New Orleans.
The bottom line: I have more confidence in Baltimore's ground game because Detroit's offensive line has clustered injuries, and Goff adds nothing to its rushing attack.
COVERS INTEL: Since Lamar Jackson's first full season as a starter (2019), the Ravens are 19-12-2 against the spread vs. NFC opponents. 
Saints vs Ravens combo
I’m building this 3-leg combo around the Ravens winning at home and leaning on their ground game. Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite, but rather than asking the Ravens to cover, I’m taking the higher-probability moneyline and pairing it with Derrick Henry to find the end zone.
The final leg is Tyler Shough Under 21.5 pass completions. Baltimore generated the NFL’s highest pressure rate in Week 1 without relying heavily on the blitz, which should make life difficult for Shough. Add in a windy forecast that could push both offenses toward the run, and I like the way these three legs work together.
Saints vs Ravens combo
- Baltimore's moneyline
- Derrick Henry anytime touchdown
- Tyler Shough Under 21.5 pass completions
TOP PICK
Saints vs Ravens player prop: Tyler Shough Under 21.5 pass completions
I'm willing to play New Orleans QB Tyler Shough's pass-completion prop down to 20.5 (47%). Granted, Shough soared Over his 21.5 pass-completion prop last week vs. Detroit, connecting on 35-of-56 passes. He has cleared his pass-completion prop in eight of his last 10 games, including five straight.
However, just like the spread, this prop price is too low. The Lions are missing their two best defensive backs, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, and the Ravens had the highest pressure rate in Week 1 with a league-average blitz rate. That means Baltimore can pressure Shough without sending too many defenders on the blitz.
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Saints vs Ravens odds
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- Spread: Saints +8.5 (54%) | Ravens -8.5 (51%)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (55%) | Under 45.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Saints 23% | Ravens 80%
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Saints vs Ravens weather
Wind speeds could hit 30 mph in Baltimore Sunday, with temperatures in the mid-to-high 60s and a 34% chance of rain.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Saints vs Ravens trend to know
New Orleans has covered seven consecutive games dating back to last season. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Ravens.
How to watch Saints vs Ravens
| Location | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Saints vs Ravens latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
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