After going 10-6 against the spread to open the season, the goal is simple: Be even better in Week 2.
My NFL picks against the spread look to build on that strong start by identifying which Week 1 performances were legitimate and which created an opportunity to buy low or sell high.
Here are my ATS NFL picks for every game on the Week 2 slate.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 2
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Lions at  Bills |
-4.5 |
 Panthers at  Falcons |
-2.5 |
 Vikings at  Bears |
-5.5 |
 Eagles at  Titans |
-7.5 |
 Steelers at  Patriots |
+5.5 |
 Packers at  Jets |
+3.5 |
 Browns at  Buccaneers |
-8.5 |
 Saints at  Ravens |
-8.5 |
 Bengals at  Texans |
+2.5 |
 Jaguars at  Broncos |
+2.5 |
 Raiders at  Chargers |
+6.5 |
 Commanders at  Cowboys |
-3.5 |
 Seahawks at  Cardinals |
+4.5 |
 Dolphins at  49ers |
-13.5 |
 Colts at  Chiefs |
-6.5 |
 Giants at  Rams |
+6.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 2 NFL ATS picks
Lions vs Bills: Bills (-4.5)
Buffalo put up 36 points and nearly eight yards per play against a very good Houston defense in Week 1. I don't think Detroit is going to offer nearly as much resistance.
The Lions needed overtime to beat New Orleans, and now they have to go on the road and deal with Josh Allen in the Bills' first game at their new stadium.
Buffalo's defense still worries me, but I trust Allen and this offense enough to lay 4.5.
Read Jason Logan's full Lions vs. Bills predictions.
Panthers vs Falcons: Panthers (-2.5)
Giving up 59 points to Chicago is about as ugly as it gets, but I'm not burying Carolina after one terrible game.
Atlanta wasn't much better offensively, scoring only 13 points against Pittsburgh, and there are still questions at quarterback entering Week 2.
This is basically a bet that Carolina isn't as bad as it looked in Week 1. Against an Atlanta offense that struggled to finish drives, I'll lay less than a field goal.
Vikings vs Bears: Bears (-5.5)
Chicago isn't scoring 59 points every week, but that offense looked legitimate in Carolina. The Bears averaged nearly eight yards per play and ran the ball extremely well.
Minnesota came back to beat Green Bay after Kyler Murray left with a concussion, but now Carson Wentz has to keep up with this Bears offense on the road.
That's a much tougher assignment. I'll lay the 5.5 with Chicago.
Eagles vs Titans: Eagles (-7.5)
I don't love laying more than a touchdown, but I really don't trust Tennessee's offense.
The Titans scored only 10 points in Week 1, and now they're facing an Eagles defense that's a significant step up from what they saw in their opener.
Philadelphia doesn't have to be spectacular here. If the Eagles get ahead early, I'm not convinced Tennessee has enough offense to chase them down. I'll lay the 7.5.
Steelers vs Patriots: Steelers (+5.5)
Pittsburgh wasn't spectacular in Week 1, but its defense was good enough to hold Atlanta to 13 points.
Now I'm getting 5.5 points against a New England team that will be without A.J. Brown and had turnover issues with Drake Maye in the opener.
I expect this to be a slower game where every possession matters. In that type of matchup, 5.5 points feels like too many. Give me Pittsburgh.
Packers vs Jets: Jets (+3.5)
Green Bay really struggled after halftime against Minnesota, while the Jets held Tennessee to only 195 yards in an impressive road win.
I'm not going to completely change my opinion of either team after one week, but I do think this Jets defense is good enough to keep them in this game.
Getting more than a field goal at home is the difference for me. I'll take New York +3.5.
Browns vs Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-8.5)
Cleveland looked awful in Week 1. The Browns were down 31-0 early in the third quarter against Jacksonville and honestly looked like a team that had checked out once things started going badly.
They're also going back to Deshaun Watson after an opener in which the offense managed one first down in the first half and didn't score a touchdown until the final two minutes.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay scored 27 points despite turning the ball over four times against Cincinnati. If the Bucs clean that up even a little, Cleveland could be in trouble again. It's a big spread, but I'll lay the 8.5.
Saints vs Ravens: Ravens (-8.5)
New Orleans deserves credit for taking Detroit to overtime, but this is a completely different challenge.
Baltimore put up 41 points, 526 yards, and more than 200 rushing yards against Indianapolis. If that running game gets rolling again, I don't know if New Orleans has enough offense to keep up for four quarters.
Maybe the Saints prove me wrong again, but I'm making them do it. I'll lay the points with Baltimore.
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Bengals vs Texans: Bengals (+2.5)
Houston looked good putting up 31 points against Buffalo, but I'm not ready to completely change my opinion of the Texans after one game.
Cincinnati scored 33 against Tampa Bay, and I don't think there's much separating these teams.
I'd obviously rather have +3, but if you're giving me points in a game I think Cincinnati can win outright, I'll take them.
Jaguars vs Broncos: Jaguars (+2.5)
Jacksonville looked great against Cleveland, although I'm not sure how much I trust that result considering how badly the Browns fell apart.
Denver, meanwhile, scored only 10 points against Kansas City and didn't show me much offensively.
The Broncos should be better this week, but I don't trust them enough to lay points against a Jacksonville team that at least showed it can move the football. Give me the Jaguars +2.5.
Raiders vs Chargers: Raiders (+6.5)
I'm not laying almost a touchdown with the Chargers after what I saw in Week 1.
Los Angeles scored only 14 points in a home loss to Arizona, while Las Vegas went on the road and beat Miami 27-13.
That doesn't suddenly mean the Raiders are the better team, but I don't think there's a full touchdown separating them either. In a divisional game, I'll happily take the 6.5.
Commanders vs Cowboys: Cowboys (-3.5)
Dallas was one of the biggest disappointments of Week 1, but this feels like a good spot to buy back in.
The Cowboys lost to the Giants, while Washington now has to play its second straight road divisional game after opening the season in Philadelphia.
I don't love laying the extra half-point, but I expect Dallas to look much better in its home opener. I'll lay 3.5.
Seahawks vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+4.5)
I think people might be sleeping on Arizona a little bit.
The Cardinals went into Los Angeles and beat the Chargers 26-14 while outgaining them 393-268 and controlling the ball for more than 37 minutes. Jacoby Brissett looked comfortable, Trey McBride was heavily involved, and this roster has more talent than people are giving it credit for.
Now Drew Lock is starting for Seattle.
The Seahawks are still the better team, but I'm not laying 4.5 points with Lock on the road against a divisional opponent. That's too many. Give me Arizona.
Dolphins vs 49ers: 49ers (-13.5)
This is a massive spread, but I'm not sure Miami can score enough for it to matter.
The Dolphins managed only 13 points against Las Vegas in Week 1, while San Francisco just held the Rams to seven points in Australia.
The 49ers don't even need a huge offensive performance to cover this. If Miami is stuck around 10-14 points again, something like 28-13 gets the job done. I'll lay it.
Colts vs Chiefs: Chiefs (-6.5)
Indianapolis gave up 41 points and 506 yards to Baltimore in Week 1. Arrowhead isn't exactly where I want to bet on an immediate turnaround.
I also just don't think this Colts team is very talented offensively outside of Jonathan Taylor. Daniel Jones doesn't scare me, and I consider Indianapolis' quarterback and receiver combination one of the five worst in football.
Kansas City looked good against Denver, and we're still getting this number below a touchdown. I'll lay 6.5 with Patrick Mahomes against a Colts defense that just got shredded.
Giants vs Rams: Giants (+6.5)
The Rams deserve a chance to bounce back after that ugly opener in Australia, but 6.5 points feels like too many.
The Giants just beat Dallas 28-20 and moved the ball extremely well doing it. Now they're facing a Rams defense with some serious questions. Myles Garrett is headed to IR, Aaron Donald's status is still up in the air, and Los Angeles gave up 174 rushing yards and three passing touchdowns against San Francisco.
The Rams also have to come all the way back from Australia and reset for Week 2. There are just too many reasons for me to grab the 6.5 with New York.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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